The rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.
1. Justin Allgaier ($11,000) - There was one too many cautions in the spring race. Allgaier lost the lead on the final restart, and in his aggressive battle to regain the lead, he wrecked. Despite turning a 1st place finish into an 18th place finish, Allgaeir still scored 84 fantasy points at Bristol.
2. Justin Haley ($9,600) - The results do not show it, but Haley had one of the best cars in the first Bristol race. He was so fast that he felt confident moving the slower drivers in front of him. Karma got him in the end. After moving drivers all race long, eventually he got caught in another’s driver’s wreck.
3. Noah Gragson ($10,200) - Coming out of the COVID-19 break, Gragson was one of the hottest drivers in the series. He caught bad breaks in both Homestead races, but at Bristol the breaks went his way. Gragson benefited from a late race caution, but he wasn’t handed the lead. He had to execute, and he wrestled the lead away from Allgaier on the final restart.
4. Gray Gaulding ($7,400) - The #07 SS Greenlight Racing Bobby Dotter car has been a cheat code in Xfinity DFS this season. This car has been good for the last several years, but the rotation of drivers has allowed this car to be routinely underpriced along with a premium DFS starting position.
5. Jesse Little ($5,000) - The last two months have not been kind to Little, and Bristol isn’t going to be any nicer. If he just goes out and turns laps, then he’ll be fine starting 25th at this price. Bayley Currey finished 20th in spring, and he was eight laps down. Just turn laps Jesse.
6. Colby Howard ($4,800) - The #15 JD Motorsports car was running inside the top 15 for most of the Bristol race until Howard suffered damage and got into the wall on lap 257. Howard got greedy at the end. Hopefully, he’s learned his lesson.
7. Harrison Burton ($9,900) - In the spring race, Burton got lucky and was awarded the pole. He led the first 40 laps of the race. Through pit sequencing, Burton cycled to the lead at the beginning of stage 2. Burton led 81 laps not because he was the best, but because he was good enough and he had track position to start the race.
8. Riley Herbst ($8,300) - Bristol has been embarrassing for Herbst. He wrecked on lap one of a Bristol K&N East race in 2019. He wrecked in the spring Xfinity race, but at least he made it to lap 256.
9. Josh Williams ($5,200) - His price matches his performance this season. Early this year and last year, Williams was a $6,000 to $7,000 driver. This year, the results do not lie. He’s a punt, but if he doesn’t wreck, then he can be the highest scoring punt.
10. Myatt Snider ($8,900) - It doesn’t take a great car to earn a top 15 in a Bristol Xfinity race. Enough good cars wreck and there are plenty of wave around opportunities. Snider won’t be in the RCR car this time, so there will not be a repeat performance of his 5th place finish, but if he stays out of trouble a top 15 is very likely.
11. Austin Cindric ($11,400) - Daytona was a wreckfest, Cindric got a DNF. Pocono was a wreckfest, Cindric got a DNF. Bristol follows this pattern. In the other 22 races, Cindric’s average finish is 5th.
12. Chase Briscoe ($11,800) - Last week was a really bad sign for Briscoe, but an obvious one. Briscoe struggles at short tracks and he has leaned heavily on his pit crew for wins. Bristol is a different kind of short track, but he’s never led a single lap at Bristol.
13. Brandon Jones ($9,400) - Bristol has been a decent track for Jones. He’s not the best driver and he won’t have the best setup, but there will be plenty of opportunities to get out front. Jones will need help, and there will be plenty of cautions and restarts to move him forward.
14. Ross Chastain ($10,600) - This seems like it would be a great track for Chastain. While Bristol rewards aggressive driving, it also punishes aggressive driving. Chastain has wrecked out of his last two Bristol races.
15. Tommy Joe Martins ($5,700) - Two races in two days is a little too much to ask from Tommy Joe Martins’ small team. It’s not a surprise that his car finished several laps down on the backend of the double header at Richmond. Since July, Martins has put the mechanical failures to rest and he has routinely earned top 20 finishes.
16. Jeb Burton ($9,100) - The #8 car has been a major disappointment this season and last Saturday was more of the same. Burton finished 17 laps down. He rebounded on Sunday and finished 2nd. He’s back in the car this weekend desperately trying to get some momentum going for this JR Motorsports car.
17. Brett Moffitt ($8,700) - In two of the last three short track races, Moffit has earned a top 10 finish. That includes a 10th place finish at the high banked concrete track in Dover that is comparable to Bristol.
18. Anthony Alfredo ($8,500) - The #21 RCR car is good, but it’s not great. In 25 races this season, it has 12 top 10 finishes. It’s better than the #8 car, but the part time JR Motorsports drivers are better than the RCR part timers.
19. Ryan Sieg ($7,800) - In the spring race, Sieg was running in 9th with 25 laps remaining, but a tire issue forced a green flag pit stop. At the end of the day, he finished 16th. During the spring, Sieg was cursed. His skill and his car’s speed were hidden by bad luck.
20. Jeremy Clements ($7,600) - He always runs well at Bristol. Clements knows that he has the talent and a good enough car to earn a solid finish. The plan is as it always is at Bristol - stay out of trouble. If he’s running at the end of this mess, then he’ll be inside the top 10.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.