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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Predictions, Betting Odds for September 18

Steve Buchanan breaks down Friday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

MLB: SEP 17 Rays at Orioles - Game 1 Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

We head into the weekend with a 12-game slate of baseball starting at 7:10 p.m. ET. Despite the big slate, this is a fairly weak pitching pool to choose from, so things could get interesting with ownership. Let’s discuss and get you set to build some lineups and then use that money on the NFL Millionaire Maker on Sunday.

As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jordan Montgomery, $6,700, NYY (-220) vs. BOS (+185) — Ya know, a little birdie told me at the beginning of September that the Yankees had such an appealing schedule that they could overtake the AL East; which, at the time, was +225 for them to do so. Now, they’re 3.5 out and are huge favorites once again as they start a series against the tanking Red Sox. While I don’t have a ton of faith in Montgomery, in particular, he has tamed this Red Sox offense in two prior starts, allowing just two runs on eight hits with eight strikeouts through 9.1 innings. But let’s talk about the real reason the Yankees are doing so well. It probably has to do with the 43 runs they put up in three games against the Blue Jays. Now they take on a putrid Red Sox pitching staff that will potentially allow them to score 86 runs in this three game series. With Martin Perez ($6,900) on the mound going up against a Yankees team with a .321 wOBA and a .207 ISO against lefties, the run barrage could continue.

Other notable favorites: Tyler Glasnow ($9,700; -205) vs. Orioles, Zach Plesac ($8,500; -195) vs. Tigers

Highest Projected Total

Editor’s Note: Dodgers SP Alex Wood will start tonight’s game vs. the Rockies.

LAD (n/a) vs. COL (n/a) — So, the line for this game was yet to be released as I type this out Friday morning, but I think it’s safe to say that this will be the highest projected total on the slate. Ryan Castellani ($6,300) is set to take on Mitch White ($5,700) of the Dodgers in the our favorite ballpark to target. Castellani has thrown 20 innings at Coors this season and has a .364 wOBA with a 6.00 FIP. Righties, in particular, have been a thorn in his side, accounting for five of the nine home runs he’s allowed and a .381 wOBA. Without a ton of expensive pitching options worth paying up for, I think Coors is more obtainable than usual, but I would also expect that to be the general consensus during roster construction.

Other notable team totals: New York Yankees (6.5) vs. Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians (5.5) vs. Detroit Tigers,

Curious about when major leagues and events will return? Check out our DraftKings Sports Calendar for the latest updates.

Weather Concerns

No weather concerns!

Splits to Start

UPDATE: With teams mostly caught up on game, these numbers will now reflect the 2020 stats.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Adrian Houser, .422, 6.64
Alex Cobb, .348, 5.74
Chris Paddack, .346, 5.15

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Zack Greinke, .218, 1.51
Kyle Hendricks, .231, 3.06
Zach Plesac, .239, 4.00

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Steven Matz, .379, 6.90
Logan Webb, .377, 4.08
Jordan Montgomery, .352, 4.63

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Zach Plesac, .245, 3.66
Max Fried, .248, 2.26
Adrian Houser, .251 2.86

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Zach Plesac, CLE vs. DET, $8,500 — I think this is a really good price for Plesac, who’ll be making his seventh start this evening. This will be his first time against the Tigers, who by the way, have the highest strikeout rate in the league against righties at 28.1%. No one is even close to the amount of strikeouts this team can bring, as the Red Sox are second at 25.7%. The Tigers offense, although good against lefties, is nothing impressive against righties, either, with a .292 wOBA and a .161 ISO. With this matchup in mind, $8.5K doesn’t feel like much to pay for Plesac, who boasts a 3.81 FIP and a 25.5% strikeout rate.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Brandon Lowe, TBR at BAL, $5,500 — Lowe continues to mash at the plate and enters this game averaging 10.2 DKFP over his last 10 games with three home runs, a double and five RBI. Tonight, he faces off against Alex Cobb ($7,200), who has a .348 wOBA and a 5.74 FIP against lefties. When Lowe has been out of Tampa, he’s been crushing righties, boasting a .372 wOBA with a .250 ISO. It’s also the split where he’s hit four of his 13 home runs.

Save Big by Drafting

Aaron Hicks, NYY at BOS, $3,600 — At this point, you want to have exposure to this Yankees lineup until they calm down. He’s not crushing the ball like the rest of the team, but his .401 wOBA and .188 ISO on the road against lefties is good enough for me. Perez has been a total wild card when he takes the mound, so there is some risk here, but for a team that scored 43 runs over the last three games, it’s worth it.

Favorite Team To Stack

ATL vs. NYM (vs. Steven Matz) — The Mets have been hiding Steven Matz ($6,400) in the bullpen as he’s been having a horrific 2020. He’s drawing the start tonight against the Braves, which I expect to be a total disaster. In six appearances this season, Matz has a 6.74 FIP, a 3.3 HR/9 and he’s allowed 23 runs in just 24 innings. On top of that, the Mets’ bullpen — though better as of late — has been putting a ton of men on base with a 5.4 BB/9 over the last seven games.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

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