It’s crazy to think about but a week from now, we’ll be talking about the final couple days of the regular season. With that in mind, Saturday, as it always seems to do, brings a really solid 11-game slate to dive into. So yeah, let’s do that.
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Trevor Bauer, CIN vs. CWS, $10,800 - I honestly flip-flopped on this choice a lot because I very rarely have targeted against the White Sox this season. To be fair, the more expensive pitching options are in fairly tough matchups. What I do like about this spot for Bauer is that the White Sox offense has hit a bit of a rough patch as of late. They’re averaging just 4.8 runs over the past seven games but that total is inflated by 14 runs against the Tigers. Overall in that span, they have a good .335 wOBA but only a .142 ISO and a 24.4 K%. Bauer continues to post elite strikeout numbers with a 37.4 K% and a 12.8% swing-and-miss rate. The perceived tough matchup could keep the ownership suppressed on Bauer, which could be a huge advantage for us.
Other Option: Michael Pineda ($8,500)
Charlie Morton, TB vs. BAL, $7,400 - This is a really cheap price for Morton. Yes, his game log isn’t all that impressive but his 4.02 FIP compared to his 5.14 ERA indicates he’s been pitching better than it seems. He still has a good 22.4 K% and a 5.6 BB% and is only allowing a 33% hard-hit rate, which is hovering around his career average. Going up against an Orioles offense that has really cooled off as of late and has a 27.4 K% over the past seven games could put Morton in an excellent spot to produce.
Other Option: Kwang Hyun Kim ($7,500)
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Will Smith, LAD at COL, $4,700 - Smith is smashing the ball lately and now draws a really good matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez ($5,300) at Coors Field. We haven’t seen much of Gonzalez this season but he’s quickly allowed nine runs on 10 hits through 9 1/3 innings thus far. As for Smith, he’s put together an impressive .431 wOBA with a .338 ISO against righties, including all six of his home runs.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Smith is not in the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Rockies.
Other Option: Austin Nola ($4,200)
Jacob Stallings, PIT vs. STL, $2,800 - Not a ton of bats I love for catcher in this range but if you want to punt the position, Stallings would be my choice. He draws a tough matchup against Kwang Hyun Kim ($7,500), who has been really impressive as a starter. With that said, Stallings has some good numbers against lefties with a .451 wOBA and a .154 ISO. He’s not someone that’s going crush the ball but he can do enough to make it worth the $2,800 salary.
Other Option: Elias Diaz ($2,700)
Cody Bellinger, LAD at COL, $5,600 - I’m not crazy about the expensive options at first base on this slate. Bellinger is my favorite of the bunch but it’s not a high bar to pass. Going back to last season to get a better sample size, Gonzalez had a .362 wOBA with a 6.36 FIP against lefties. To be clear, I don’t think you NEED to pay up at first base as I’ll be looking to do so at some of the other positions. I think going cheap at first base is the better option but if you want to pay up for Bellinger, that’s certainly the play.
Other Option: Luke Voit ($5,400)
Jedd Gyorko, MIL vs. KCR, $3,700 - This is the range where I think you should be looking at on this slate. Gyorko has been absolutely smashing lefties and draws a matchup against Kris Bubic ($6,600). He’s been pitching great lately but the Brewers are a sneaky good team against lefties with a team .352 wOBA, a .215 ISO and a 118 wRC+. As for Gyorko, he has a .434 wOBA, a .436 ISO and five of his eight home runs.
Other Option: Nate Lowe ($2,800)
Brandon Lowe, TB at BAL, $5,700 - Lowe was one of my favorite plays yesterday and came away with 12 DKFP, which was fine but not great. Well, he has a chance to redeem himself tonight against Jorge Lopez ($6,000) at Camden Yards. Lowe has been a beast against righties, especially on the road boasting a .382 wOBA with a .238 ISO and four of his 13 home runs. Lopez, who is finally pitching like the pitcher we’ve come to love (to stack against) has a .379 wOBA, a 6.42 FIP and all four of the home runs he’s allowed to lefties.
Other Option: Ozzie Albies ($4,500)
Josh VanMeter, ARI at HOU, $2,600 - VanMeter hasn’t done much this season but the Diamondbacks continue to feature him in a prominent spot in their lineup. To his credit, he’s averaging 5.6 DKFP over his past five games, which believe me, for him is quite the accomplishment this season. Cristian Javier ($7,800) has seen his struggles against lefties, for what it’s worth, with a .332 wOBA, a 5.93 FIP and five of the nine home runs he’s allowed. VanMeter will draw extremely low ownership, so it’s something to consider.
Other Option: Christian Arroyo ($3,100)
Manny Machado, SDP vs. SEA, $5,400 - Machado is making a late push for MVP honors in the National League. Over his past 10 games, he’s averaging a massive 13.3 DKFP with four home runs, two doubles, 10 RBI and three stolen bases. He has a great opportunity to continue this torrid streak with a matchup against Justus Sheffield ($7,600). Against lefties, Machado continues to rake with a .424 wOBA, a .291 ISO and five of his 16 home runs.
Other Option: Eugenio Suarez ($4,200)
Edwin Rios, LAD at COL, $3,300 - Rios is a really cheap way to grab some exposure at Coors Field without skimping on the power. Rios has shown some really good pop against righties, boasting a .348 ISO to go with a .367 wOBA. As I’ve mentioned multiple times, Gonzalez has really struggled when on the mound and his numbers against lefties, in particular, are a split you want to target.
Other Option: Yoshi Tsutsugo ($2,800)
Xander Bogaerts, BOS at NYY $5,000 - The Red Sox offense has become a forgotten commodity in 2020. This is one of those matchups you want to target, however, especially with this game taking place at Fenway Park. Bogaerts has consistently put up good numbers against lefties and this season has been no different. He has a .432 wOBA with a .264 ISO and four of his 10 home runs in this spot. Going against J.A. Happ ($8,800), who has a 1.7 HR/9 and a 5.29 FIP against righties, is the cherry on top.
Other Option: Corey Seager ($5,300)
Brad Miller, STL at PIT, $4,200 - I don’t think it’s viable to go under $4K at shortstop so these guys are going to be the “value” options. Miller will be taking on Mitch Keller ($5,700), who hasn’t pitched much at the major league level this season but had a .415 wOBA against lefties last season.
Other Option: Paul DeJong ($4,100)
Marcell Ozuna, ATL at NYM, $5,100 - Ozuna can’t be stopped right now, especially when facing a lefty, which is what he gets tonight. His numbers against them are simply absurd, boasting a ridiculous .573 wOBA with a .590 ISO and seven of his 15 home runs. It’s not even fair and now David Peterson ($7,700) has to deal with that. Ozuna is a total lock for me tonight.
Other Options: Aaron Judge ($5,200), Adam Duvall ($4,500)
Yoshi Tsutsugo, TB at BAL, $2,800 - This is an extremely cheap price for Tsutsugo, who has been all over the Rays lineup. He’s been hitting leadoff over the last two games and would love if that trend continued this evening against Lopez. As I mentioned, Lopez has a .379 wOBA, a 6.42 FIP and all four of the home runs to lefties this season. If he’s hitting leadoff, this is value you can’t beat.
Other Options: Avisail Garcia ($3,100), Brett Gardner ($3,200)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.