Wednesday features an excellent two-game NBA slate. It starts with the Bucks vs. Heat at 6:30 p.m. ET, and the Bucks will be looking to even the series after dropping Game 1.
After that, we have Game 7 between the Rockets and the Thunder at 9 p.m. ET. This series has been back-and-forth, and the winner of this contest will advance to take on the Lakers in the second round of the Western Conference playoffs.
Let’s break down some of my favorite bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for these contests.
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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat:
The Bucks did not play well in Game 1 vs. the Heat, who were expected to be a really tough matchup for them. That said, all hope is not lost.
The Bucks were plagued by two things in particular in that contest: turnovers and free throws. They had a turnover rate of 19.4%, which put them in just the eighth percentile in that category according to Cleaning the Glass. They also shot just 57.5% from the free throw line, while the Heat shot 92.6%. Both teams should see some regression towards the mean in this contest.
Overall, the Bucks were significantly better offensively from the field in Game 1 – they had an effective FG% of 60.0% while the Heat were at just 54.2% — so I like their chances if they can limit the turnovers and even out the free throw battle.
The Bucks also fit one of my favorite buy-low trends. They are favored against a lower-seeded team after losing their previous contest, and teams in that situation have gone 200-163-10 against the spread since 2006.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat:
If you missed the opportunity to grab some Bucks futures earlier in the year, this could be your last chance to buy in. Their odds to win the East have fallen to +130 after being listed at better than -150 entering the playoffs. They should be favored in every single game that they play in the Eastern Conference playoffs, and their odds will likely decrease if they win Game 2 vs. the Heat.
Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder:
Game 7s are a different beast. We saw that last night with the Nuggets and Jazz, who combined to score just 158 points. Those two teams lit the scoreboard up for each of the first six games of that series, but the under covered by nearly 70 points in Game 7.
That game isn’t an isolated incident either. Unders have gone 29-19 against the spread in Game 7s dating back to 2006, and the under has hit in each of the past six Game 7s.
These two teams have also struggled offensively over their past two games, combining for just 194 points in Game 5 and 204 points in Game 6.
I think you can definitely play some unders on player props in this game as well, but the under on the game total is my favorite wager of the day.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.