We’re trying something a bit new this year, as I’ll be taking a season-long ride we’re calling “The Bankroll Challenge.”
Basically, I’ll start with 50 units to wager on DraftKings Sportsbook for this NFL season and try to build that bankroll as large as possible. In order to do that, I’ll save the majority of my bankroll to use week-to-week, but betting futures has been profitable for me in recent seasons, so I’ll want to sprinkle some of that in as well.
This article is going to be where my most confident plays go, so while a best bets article may highlight the top five bets to consider one week, this is the place I’ll be posting selective bets that I’m most confident in, along with a unit amount.
This article will also be a running blog, so look for more plays to be dropped in throughout the week with fresh updates.
You can find my NFL Futures bets for the Bankroll Challenge here.
New Orleans Saints vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Jared Cook Receiving Yards: OVER 52.5 (-112) — risk 1.12 to win 1
The more I think about it, the more I want to try and capitalize on Michael Thomas’ absence here. It opens up a ton of offense, and I think Cook might be the guy Brees looks to downfield most. He brought in 5-of-7 targets for 80 yards in Week 1.
With all the hype on Alvin Kamara, it’s easy to overlook how large of a role Murray has in this offense. Murray handled 15 carries for 48 yards against a stout Tampa run defense last week. The Raiders were much worse against the run last season, and got gashed in Week 1 by Carolina. I like the over 8.5 carries a little more here, but at -150, I’ll turn to the yards for a better price.
San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets
SF -7(-110) — risk 2.2 units to win 2 (winner)
This will be a popular public bet this week, but it’s the right side of this game. The 49ers’ injury report is concerning, but their run game should be in full force, which is almost all they need. The Jets were putrid in Week 1 and are down their top-two offensive weapons in Jamison Crowder and Le’Veon Bell.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
LAR Moneyline (+110) — risk 1 unit to win 1.1 (winner)
The Rams opened as 3.5-point dogs, and it didn’t take long for them to get bet to favorites. With money coming back on Philly, I like the Rams as slight dogs. The Eagles are bound to improve upon the eight sacks, two interceptions and fumble they had last week, but the Rams’ defensive line is still a pretty tough matchup.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
GB -6 (-110) — risk 1.1 units to win 1 (winner)
Aaron Rodgers and company looked sharp in a Week 1 victory over the Vikings, picking their secondary apart. The Lions had a rough time containing Mitch Trubisky last week, and are pretty banged up in their secondary as well. I’m expecting a similar result for Green Bay.
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers
PIT -6.5 (-110) — risk 1.1 units to win 1 (loser)
The Steelers looked very sharp in Week 1, maintaining their elite defense from last season while getting back all of their injured offensive weapons that were out last year. Meanwhile, the Broncos are banged up on both sides of the ball and looked very sluggish. Coaching decisions also proved to be pretty poor for Denver, giving the Steelers yet another advantage in this one.
Moneyline Parlay: SF/BAL/KC (+116) — risk 2 units to win 2.32 (winner)
Not much of an explanation for this one. I expect all three teams to win pretty handily, so I’ll take the plus money.
We’re pretty heavily invested in this week and could even have some player props to add. Let’s get it.
Sprinkling in a couple late player props, so quick analysis on each:
Nyheim Hines OVER 3.5 receptions (+105) — risk 1 unit to win 1.05 (loss)
Philip Rivers loves to target RBs, and Hines secured all eight of his targets in Week 1. No Marlon Mack means more snaps against Minnesota.
Chris Herndon OVER 4.5 receptions (+122) — risk 1 unit to win 1.22 (loss)
Herndon caught six of his seven targets in Week 1, and the Jets will be without Jamison Crowder and Le’Veon Bell this week. That combo accounted for 15 combined targets last week, and game script sets up for the Jets to be playing from behind.
Ronald Jones OVER 59.5 rushing yards (-112) — risk 1.12 units to win 1 (loss)
Carolina has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL and are underdogs of more than a touchdown in Tampa. Jones carried 17 times for 66 yards in Week 1 against the Saints.
Davante Adams OVER 91.5 receiving yards (-112) risk 1.12 units to win 1 (loss)
Adams torched the Vikings for 156 yards on 17 targets, and gets a similar matchup against a Lions secondary missing key pieces.
Devin Singletary UNDER 54.5 rushing yards (-118) risk 1.18 units to win 1 (loss)
Singletary split carries with Zack Moss in Week 1, each getting nine in a blowout win over the Jets. Both should see similar roles against the Dolphins, soI just don’t see a large enough workload to get to this number.
FUTURE UNITS PENDING: 5.88
UNITS REMAINING: 45.96
WEEK 2 RESULTS: 4-6 (-0.1 UNITS) — crushed the games and gave it all back on player props
SEASON TOTAL: 9-10 (+1.84 UNITS)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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