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DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Trends and Early NFL Predictions for Week 3

Steve Buchanan analyzes three player performances from Week 2 and gives his take on if it’ll continue or not in Week 3.

There is nothing better than some overreactions after the dust settles on a football Sunday. All of us armchair quarterbacks go and make our critiques and tell all our friends and family about what we would have done differently.

The great thing for me is, they asked me to do this and YOU’RE sitting here reading it! How about that?

For this piece, each week we’ll take a look at some players that either potentially overachieved or underachieved and what the outlook for them is moving forward — specifically for next week’s game. Are they set up for more success or could someone have simply had a bad week? My job here is to try and figure that out and relay that information to you. Let’s take a look!

Oh, feel free to tell me how wrong I am by getting at me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: NFL $1.75M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (NO vs LV)


Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams
Week 2 Fantasy Total: 28.4 DKFP

Look, Week 2 was a damn bloodbath. You were lucky to come out of it in the green. If you did, you may want to consider putting it on your resume. Still, if you somehow fell into playing Higbee at tight end, that’s even more impressive. First of it, it meant you avoided the Chris Herndon ($3,400; 1.5 DKFP) disaster because, you know, what can go wrong with Jets chalk? Second, you got Higbee at low ownership, drawing into an average of 4% of lineups across the DraftKings...universe? Is that the right way to describe it? Higbee caught all five of his targets for 54 yards and three touchdowns, including a 28-yard beauty for his third of the afternoon.

Higbee continues to out-snap Gerald Everett ($2,800) — who didn’t even draw a target today — and it hasn’t been close. Higbee played 70 snaps in Week 1 and 59 in Week 2. Everett was at 27 and 30. Week 3 brings an interesting spot against the Bills, who just allowed Mike Gesicki ($4,000; 30.0 DKFP) to go for 130 yards, eight catches and a touchdown. The aforementioned Herndon caught six of his seven targets in Week 1 for 37 yards. The Bills have allowed an average of 23.1 DKFP through the first two weeks, with 15 receptions and 171 yards, overall. While it’s insane to think Higbee will continue his touchdown rate, he’s a solid part of this offense and the clear TE1 to rely upon. Just be ready for that salary to see quite the bump up.


Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Week 2 Fantasy Total: 26.24 DKFP

Surprise!

We all knew Herbert would be under center for the Chargers at some point this season, we just didn’t expect it to be Week 2 against the Chiefs. For someone who was supposedly told he would be starting just minutes before kickoff, Herbert took the opportunity to complete 22-of-33 pass attempts for 311 yards with a passing touchdown, a rushing touchdown and an interception. All of this against the Chiefs, no less. After the game, Chargers coach Anthony Lynn said “If [Taylor] is 100 percent ready to go, he’s our starter.”

YOU JUST ALMOST UPSET THE CHIEFS!!!! YOU’RE TELLING ME TYROD WOULD HAVE DONE THE SAME!? GET THE HELL OUTTA HERE!!!!!

I really hope this is a bunch of noise coming from Lynn because Herbert truly looked incredible in Week 2. Should he start in Week 3, he has an amazing matchup against the Panthers, who have such a horrible secondary. Aside from rookie Troy Pride, they’re running out Juston Burris and Donte Jackson, who each allowed more than 16.0 yards per reception last season. We just saw Mike Evans go for 7/104/1 against this secondary, so I can’t see why we won’t get similar results from Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Start the kid, Lynn, and if (WHEN) that does happen, get Herbert in those DFS lineups.


Todd Gurley, Atlanta Falcons
Week 2 Fantasy Total: 6.1 DKFP

In a game that featured 79 points, 950 total yards and the Falcons in possession of the ball for 33:48 minutes, Gurley totalled 6.1 DKFP. They let him loose a bit more this week, as he played on 48 of the 75 offensive snaps and carried the ball 21 times for 61 yards. Amazingly though, Gurley didn’t receive a single target and now has only two receptions for one yard through two games. It’s not as if Gurley is in a timeshare, either. The Falcons have run the ball a total 48 times and Gurley has handled 73% of those carries. He’s only averaging 3.3 yards per attempt thus far — which isn’t great — but he has a stranglehold on the RB1 role.

Week 3 isn’t going to get much easier against the Bears. Through two weeks, they’ve been around league average in fantasy production allowed to opposing backs. Against the Lions and Giants, they’ve allowed an average of 17.8 DKFP and 4.2 YPC with a total of two rushing touchdowns. They’ve been gashed more through the air by RBs, with 10-of-12 targets caught for 72 yards. I would expect this game to lean toward the Falcons, so game script wise, I can’t imagine the need for Gurley to catch out of the back field. Until we start to see more from the Falcons RB1, I think he’s someone to continue to ignore.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: NFL $1.75M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (NO vs LV)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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