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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Predictions, Betting Odds for September 21

Steve Buchanan breaks down Monday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Pittsburgh Pirates v Cincinnati Reds Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Monday is another one of those early starts to the slate, as tonight will lock at 6:37 p.m. ET. It allows two games to be added to the slate, which otherwise would have been only a six-game slate. Let’s get into all the info for tonight!

As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]


Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jacob deGrom, $10,500, NYM (-195) vs. TBR (+163) — After lasting only two innings in his last start against the Phillies, deGrom is set to pitch tonight against the Rays. Citing a hamstring injury, deGrom simply did not look like himself the last time out, giving up three runs on four hits with only one strikeout, for an uncharacteristic -2.5 DKFP. Since then, he’s not only received treatment but he’s also thrown two side sessions to ensure he’ll be good to go. The Rays bring some good strikeout upside with their 25.6 K% against righties but also have hit them with a .321 wOBA and a .184 ISO. This is a really tough slate to begin with and I worry about paying the premium for deGrom after having this injury. The matchup is good on paper, don’t get me wrong, but it’s not crazy to say that deGrom is a bit of a risk here.

Other notable favorites: Huascar Ynoa ($5,600; -177) vs. Marlins, Adam Wainwright ($9,500; -175) vs. Royals

Highest Projected Total

STL (-175, 5.5 runs) vs. KCR (+148, 3.5 runs) 9.5 runs —I’m actually a big favorite of the Royals in this one, despite what the lines say. Sure, Wainwright has some good numbers on the surface and has been limiting hard contact with just a 29.6% mark. On the other hand, his 4.02 FIP compared to his 2.87 ERA is not something to ignore. Through the month of September, Wainwright has allowed a .306 wOBA, a 4.68 FIP and four of his seven home runs allowed. On a slate like this, you’re bound to make at least one move that maybe you’re not crazy about and I think this could be the spot. It doesn’t hurt that the Cardinals’ bullpen has been super busy either, throwing 26 2/3 innings over the past week, sporting a 4.87 FIP, a 5.74 BB/9 and a 45.3% hard-hit rate.

Other notable team totals: Braves (5.5) vs. Marlins, Cubs (4.5) vs. Pirates


Curious about when major leagues and events will return? Check out our DraftKings Sports Calendar for the latest updates.


Weather Concerns

No weather concerns!


Splits to Start

UPDATE: With all teams mostly caught up on games, this section will only feature 2020 stats.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Johnny Cueto, .359 4.60
J.T. Brubaker, .328, 3.59
Lance McCullers Jr., 3.61, 4.79

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jacob deGrom, .227, 2.20
Marco Gonzales, .271, 3.11
Brandon Woodruff, .287, 3.82


Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Trevor Rogers, .359, 6.63
Huascar Ynoa, .359, 4.59
Jon Lester, .344, 5.69

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Adam Wainwright, .229, 2.53
Jacob deGrom, .239, 1.80
Luis Castillo, .250 1.10


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Luis Castillo, CIN at MIL, $9,800 — I talked earlier about my iffy stance on deGrom, which leads me to Castillo going up against the Brewers. Over the past few games, the Brewers have been hitting well but they’ve been facing some lefties, which is a much stronger split for them. Against righties, it’s not all that impressive with a .305 wOBA, a .160 ISO and that appealing 25.7 K%, which is the second-highest in the league. Meanwhile, Castillo boasts a 30.6 K% and a stellar 15.6% swing-and-miss rate. He’s my guy for tonight.


Heavy Hitter to Pay For

George Springer, HOU at SEA, $4,500 — Springer has been mashing the ball lately and enters this game averaging 12.4 DKFP over his past 10 games with six home runs, a double and seven RBI. Tonight, he draws a matchup against Marco Gonzales ($7,600), who has been pitching well but not necessarily against the Astros once already. At home against righties, he’s given up five of his eight total home runs. With the way Springer is hitting, this is a good matchup for him with his .341 wOBA and .295 ISO against lefties.


Save Big by Drafting

Corey Dickerson, MIA vs. ATL, $3,700 — It hasn’t been a great season for Dickerson overall but he’s showing some signs of breaking out. He’s been putting up some of his best offensive numbers of the season this month and currently sits with a .318 wOBA and a .173 ISO through the month of September. We haven’t seen a ton of Josh Tomlin ($6,200) this season but he’s historically struggled against lefties. At this salary, Dickerson is worth a shot for some cheap power in one of your outfield shots.


Favorite Team To Stack

NYY vs. TOR (vs. Matt Shoemaker) — Shoemaker is coming off the injured list and will be pitching for the first time in exactly a month. When he has taken the mound, it’s not been anything he’s going back and bragging about. Shoemaker has an overall 6.10 FIP, a 2.81 HR/9 and a 37.5% hard-hit rate. He won’t be in this game long either, meaning the Blue Jays’ bullpen will be handling the majority of this game and they’ve been the worst in the league over the past week. In that span, they’ve thrown 25 23 innings with a 10.78 (!) FIP, a 4.5 HR/9 and an 8.4 BB/9.


Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

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