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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Predictions, Betting Odds for September 22

Steve Buchanan breaks down Tuesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Tuesday is always my favorite night of baseball, as we always have a massive slate to break down. Today is no different with 11 games on the schedule, beginning at a normal 7:05 p.m. ET start. Let’s get into all the information you’ll (hopefully) need to bring home some green.

As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $200K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]


Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Framber Valdez, $9,700, HOU (-180) vs. SEA (+155) — Valdez is the second-most expensive pitcher on the slate tonight! His salary has steadily gone up since the season began and rightfully so. He’s had some bumps in the road — especially earlier this month when he allowed a combined 13 runs on 16 hits against the Angels and Dodgers — but aside from that, he’s been great. His strikeout upside is his biggest appeal with a 26.1% strikeout rate and a 10.2% swing-and-miss rate. Tonight he faces the Mariners for the second time this season after throwing six one-run innings and earning 20.7 DKFP in their first meeting. The Mariners have one of the highest strikeout rates in the league against lefties at 26.3% with just a .269 wOBA and a .134 ISO. It’s a great spot for Valdez and one you should be highly considering him in.

Other notable favorites: Zach Davies ($9,900; -177) vs. Angels, Dustin May ($9,300; -159) vs. Athletics

Highest Projected Total

BAL (-103; 4.5 runs) vs. BOS (-118; 4.5 runs) — I’ll be honest, I don’t have a great feel for this game. With the Orioles running out Keegan Akin ($6,300), who has honestly pitched quite well, and the Red Sox starting Nick Pivetta, who isn’t in the player pool, I’m really torn here. On one hand, Akin has been solid. He’s only thrown 18.2 innings, but boasts a 31.1 strikeout rate, a 2.81 FIP and a 37.8% hard-hit rate. The Red Sox are also around league average against lefties with a .325 wOBA, a .163 ISO and a 23.1% strikeout rate. As for Pivetta, people have been raving about his stuff for years, but it hasn’t translated well in the majors. You can see how he looked in a quick video from a simulated start here.

Overall, I would side with the Orioles in this one because there is nothing like getting into the Red Sox bullpen, but I’ll admit, I don’t love this game overall.

Other notable team totals: San Diego Padres (5.5) vs. Los Angeles Angels, Houston Astros (4.5) vs. Seattle Mariners


Weather Concerns

No weather concerns!


Splits to Start

UPDATE: With teams mostly caught up on games, these numbers will now reflect the 2020 stats.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Frankie Montas, .447, 6.45
Seth Lugo, .353, 6.10
Randy Dobnak, .343, 4.89

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Zach Davies, .203, 3.37
Blake Snell, .225, 2.74
Framber Valdez, .267, 1.81


Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Griffin Canning, .364, 4.74
Jordan Lyles, .352, 6.19
Zach Davies, .319, 4.08

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Dustin May, .237, 3.64
Frankie Montas, .242, 3.35
Steven Brault, .280, 4.08


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Brady Singer, KC vs. STL, $6,900 —We’re going WAY down the list tonight for our pitcher to build around. I think Singer is going to be vastly overlooked and that could be a mistake. He’s coming off back-to-back dominant starts against the Indians and Tigers, in which he combined to throw 14.0 innings, allowing just three hits, no runs and 16 strikeouts. Even before that, in the start against the White Sox in which he gave up five runs in 5.2 innings, his 2.48 FIP indicates he was downright unlucky. Now he faces a Cardinals team that has a .307 wOBA, a .130 ISO and a 23.5% strikeout rate against righties. A lot to like here for someone who is only $6.9K.


Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Manny Machado, SD vs. LAA, $5,700 — Machado continues to make a late push for the NL MVP and has a good opportunity to pad those stats against Griffin Canning ($7,000). As indicated above, Canning has some of the worst stats against righties on this slate with a .364 wOBA and a 4.74 FIP. If you want to isolate his numbers even more, he’s been much worse on the road against righties with a .370 wOBA and a 5.24 FIP. Meanwhile, Machado has absolutely raked at home against righties with a .498 wOBA, a .405 ISO and eight of his 16 home runs.



Save Big by Drafting

Nate Lowe, TB at NYM, $3,800 — Lowe has been hitting extremely well as of late and it’s led to his salary bumping up, but he’s still very affordable. The lefty is averaging 8.6 DKFP over his last 10 games with two home runs, a double, seven RBI and six walks. Tonight he faces Seth Lugo ($7,400), who has really struggled against lefties in the his appearances this season, posting a .353 wOBA and a 6.10 FIP. Lowe has been finding himself in the cleanup spot as of late and with the cheap price tag, he is someone to seriously consider.


Favorite Team To Stack

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Oakland Athletics (vs. Frankie Montas) — It’s been a tough and disappointing season for Montas, who has really been roughed up on the road. That’s where he’ll be tonight for his start against the Dodgers. When he’s on the road, Montas has a .409 wOBA with a 5.96 FIP and he’s allowed six of his seven total home runs. With the way the 2020 schedule works, you can’t even blame hitter-friendly ballparks, because he hasn’t pitched in any in the AL and NL West! Lefties have been the biggest issue for Montas, so when you’re making your stack, start with them and then mix in some of the power bats from the right side.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $200K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

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