Happy Tuesday! The MLB playoff race is coming down the home stretch in the last week of the season, and there are plenty of live underdogs (or a short favorite, in one case) trying to play the role of spoiler. There are plenty of ways to catch the excitement, and I’ve picked out three of my favorite MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York Mets vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Remember how hot this Mets offense was just a week ago? Well, they’ve cooled down considerably. Save for a couple of nice wins, runs have been hard to come by for the Amazins in their last nine games, who carry a pedestrian 95 wRC+ over that span. All hope of a playoff run now appears to be lost in New York, as the Mets sit just a few games from elimination. The 2018 AL Cy Young award winner should put one of the final nails in the coffin tonight. The Mets have ranked right in the middle of the league against lefties, holding no real advantage in the splits here, and Snell has found consistency in his past two outings after a pair of rough ones. This is an incredibly public side to take, so take it with caution, but objectively it appears the Mets are running out of life, struggling to win last night even behind Jacob deGrom’s 14 Ks.
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Jose Quintana has long been one of my favorite pitchers to fade, and now we have the opportunity to welcome him back from a lat injury by betting against him. The 31-year-old has been showing signs of regression since his breakout 2016 season, seeing his expected ERA climb each year to a whopping 4.76 last season. He got knocked around by the Pirates and Reds in his only two outings of 2020, and I don’t see this one working out too much differently against a Pirates offense which has been able to find a little life lately. A big reason to back Pittsburgh here is Steven Brault, who the public may be counting on to regress after his complete game against the Cardinals. Brault is legit, however, ranking in the top 7% of the league in exit velocity and allowing just five barrels in 98 batted ball events. The Cubs have lost their way offensively with just a 59 wRC+ in the past week and shouldn’t find much of the hard contact they’ve been known to produce against Brault. I like this spot.
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners:
You can opt for the safer option here with +1.5 runs sitting at -106, but I’m going for it all. Framber Valdez is coming off a great outing against the offensively inept Texas Rangers, but before that he allowed 20 runs in 26 innings across his four previous starts. This is a pitcher who sees an alarmingly high amount of his batted balls come off the bat over 95 mph (46.7%), which does not point to bad luck with those horrific outings he had in the last month. This is a fade of Valdez and nothing else.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.