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DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks: NFL Week 3 Top High-Upside DFS Targets

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Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be lower-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here most weeks, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.

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Stacks

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks

Dak Prescott ($7,200) – DK Metcalf ($6,500) – Chris Carson ($6,600) – Amari Cooper ($6,500)

Through two games the Seahawks defense has allowed an average of 424.0 passing yards and have the third worst net yards allowed per pass attempt. Seattle’s rush defense has been much better allowing just 3.0 yards per carry and they’ve limited opposing RBs to the fourth-fewest DKFP. The funnel nature of the Seahawks defense should mean big things for Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper. Dak has averaged 43.0 pass attempts through two starts, while Cooper has already seen 23 targets and will likely be matched up against Shaq Griffin this week. Griffin’s started the season horribly, allowing an 80% catch rate and will be at significant height and weight disadvantage against Cooper.

This game has a 56-point total so Cowboy QB-WR stacks will be popular, but one way to differentiate will be to include lower-owned members of the Seahawks. Seattle ran the ball on 50% of their plays last week and Chris Carson saw his snap count increase as he saw 20 touches. Seattle’s favored, so Carson should be in for another busy day. The real upside from Seattle could come via DK Metcalf, though. Both of Dallas’ starting corners (Chidobe Awuzie and Anthony Brown) have already been ruled out for this game and Metcalf — who has consistently been lower-owned than Tyler Lockett ($6,400) each week — went off on just six targets against the world’s best cornerback last week. Metcalf vs. the ghost town secondary of the Cowboys is a potential bloodbath in the making and could lead to monster days all around, as this game has the potential to produce a mountain of fantasy goodness on both sides.

Just Missed: Daniel Jones ($5,500) – Evan Engram ($5,000) – Darius Slayton ($4,900) – Jerick McKinnon ($4,900)


Quarterback

Daniel Jones, New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers ($5,500)

Jones’ start to the 2020 season has been less than ideal. A 63% completion rate and 41.4 QBR rating doesn’t exactly scream “play-me in DFS.” However, for GPP purposes, we care less about bad games than we do overall ceiling and, if we’re taking his 2019 season into account, Jones’ ceiling remains elite. Last season, Jones showed he possessed the exact kind of boom potential we don’t mind chasing at this position, as he racked up three games with four or more TDs and also produced the sixth-most rush yards per game of any QB in the league. The 49ers come into this week hurting in a big way and will be without their best pass rusher and corner, as Nick Bosa and Richard Sherman are both sidelined. San Francisco is also in the midst of a two-game Eastern road trip, so the toll of injuries and time zone could catch up to them in this second New York matchup. Jones has now thrown the ball over 40 times in both of his first two starts and seems destined for more of the same in Week 3 with the Giants currently the underdogs. Don’t be shocked if the Giants passing game rises up for one week against the hurting 49ers and Jones produces a monster game as a result.

Just Missed: Matthew Stafford ($6,300)


Running Back

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Carolina Panthers ($6,800)

Ekeler’s usage in Week 2 was much improved after a slow Week 1. The improvement may have been a result of the change at QB, as rookie Justin Herbert ($5,900) made the emergency start and ended up throwing to the talented RB four times — which was a big improvement over the one target he got in Week 1. This is important to note, as Herbert will start Week 3 against the Panthers. Despite the tasty matchup — Carolina has allowed the most points per game to the RB position thus far — Ekeler’s ownership doesn’t seem likely to get out of control with rookie Josh Kelley ($5,000) now also in the mix for snaps. Ekeler’s the one with big play capability, though, and with more opportunity in the pass game the chances of a ceiling game are solid enough to pay up for his lower ownership.

Jerick McKinnon, San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants ($4,900)

McKinnon’s only played 32 snaps thus far in 2020 — and taken six carries — but he seems destined for solid usage in Week 3. The 49ers are almost certain to be without both Tevin Coleman (knee) and Raheem Mostert (knee), leaving McKinnon and Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4,000) to split the workload. Coming off a major knee injury, it was hard to know what to expect from the plus athlete this year, but McKinnon’s already shown big play capability, taking a handoff 55 yards last week against the Jets. While there’s no guarantee he dominates the snaps, his price tag below $5K and the matchup against the Giants are enough to make him more than viable for GPPs. New York has allowed 4.5 yards per carry on the ground thus far and gotten smoked by pedestrian backs like Benny Snell Jr. ($4,700) and David Montgomery ($5,700). If McKinnon gets even half the opportunities those two got (he should get at least that) similar or better results should be expected.

Just Missed: Nick Chubb ($6,900), Kareem Hunt ($6,100)


Wide Receiver

TY Hilton, Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets ($5,600)

There’s been few players with a more disappointing start to 2020 than Hilton. Despite having two cake matchups to begin his tenure with Philip Rivers ($6,000), the two have failed to connect in any meaningful way, with Hilton converting just 50% of his 14 targets into catches. With Parris Campbell (knee) now out for a significant period of time, the Colts should be looking at this week as a great chance to get Hilton going. The Jets’ corners grade out as one of the worst groups in the league and Hilton could match up against the slow-footed Pierre Desir given Quincy Williams’ concussion status. From a DFS perspective, the $300 price drop off last week also leaves him at his cheapest price point of the year and with an ownership that could easily slide into the single-digit range in most large GPPs. It’s uncomfortable to keep chasing, but with no injury or slide in explosiveness obvious, betting on a Hilton breakout does make a ton of sense — for at least one more week.

Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons ($3,000)

Mooney took a huge step forward last week for the Bears. The fifth-round draft pick looked buried on the depth chart at the beginning of the season, but ascended in Week 2 to play over 60% of the snaps and essentially takeover the role that Taylor Gabriel vacated when he left as the Bears’ WR2. The rookie has legitimate wheels (4.38 40-time), has turned all six of his targets into catches thus far — including one TD — and is also working on a Bears team with limited talent at WR. The matchup in Week 3 looks great for some continuation, as the Falcons enter with one of the worst graded secondaries in the league and have now allowed the fifth-most points to the WR position. The price here simply doesn’t match the upside, making him a great punt/value target for big GPPs in Week 3.

Just Missed: Curtis Samuel ($4,000), Marvin Jones Jr. ($5,800)


Tight End

Evan Engram, New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers ($5,000)

The Giants lost the focal part of their offense last week as Saquon Barkley went down with an ACL tear. The lack of a playmaker in the backfield should mean the Giants look for new ways to get some of their weapons in the receiving game involved in Week 3. Engram bounced back from a terrible Week 1 to lead the Giants in targets in Week 2, posting six catches on eight targets for 65 yards. While a lot of his targets were on short and intermediate routes, expect the Giants to be working that part of the field more often without Barkley in the backfield as a threat. Daniel Jones has now thrown the ball 40 times or more in each of his first two starts; while Engram leads all Giants receivers in snaps played and is tied with WR Darius Slayton in overall targets (15) and red zone targets (3). The matchup is going to keep ownership on most Giants skill players below 5% this week, but the potential for serious volume against a banged-up 49ers squad means you shouldn’t be writing him out of your GPP pool.

Just Missed: Drew Sample ($3,500), Dan Arnold ($2,800)


D/ST

Minnesota Vikings vs. Tennessee Titans ($2,500)

The Vikings are coming off two brutal losses to open their season and their matchup in Week 3 against Tennessee very much exists as a make or break game for their season. Minnesota’s secondary has underperformed thus far, but they catch a small break this week with Titans WR A.J. Brown (knee) not expected to play. The thin Tennessee receiving corps means Minnesota could make a push to get their pass rush going here, with new addition Yannick Ngakoue possibly ready to make an impact after two games in his new scheme. The Titans’ offensive line has performed well in 2020, but they were last in adjusted sack rate in 2019. Minnesota allowed the second fewest points against at home last year and have been top 10 in terms of fewest points allowed at home in each of the past four seasons. This game should be close, but expect a bounce back for the Vikings D/ST, who come in cheap and will get a Titans offense at less than 100% ability.

Just missed: Los Angeles Rams ($3,000)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.