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NFL Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for Week 3

Steve Buchanan breaks down the Week 3 DraftKings NFL slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

The sooner we can forget about Week 2 the better. Holy crap, was that a disaster of a week or what? I honestly don’t think Week 3 could be any worse but hey, what do I know? Let’s take a look at what this Sunday has in store!

Feel free to drop me a follow as well on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.


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Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Indianapolis Colts (-480; -10.5) vs. New York Jets (+390)

The Colts are MASSIVE favorites over the Jets and rightfully so. Even with a number of in-game injuries to the 49ers, the Jets could not get anything going. The offense is looking rough once again for the Jets, as both Jamison Crowder ($5,300) and Breshad Perriman ($3,900) are not looking good for this game. The New York pass rush hasn’t generated much either, and are now going up against one of the best offensive lines in the league. Philip Rivers ($6,000) has only been under pressure on 17% of his dropbacks and still has an 80% completion rate. Even worse, the Jets have had problems against opposing running backs, as the team has allowed an average of 156.5 scrimmage yards. This is a potential smash spot for Jonathan Taylor ($7,000), who already has carried the ball 35 times and caught all eight of his targets. I know the juice is big and the spread is large but man, there is not much to like about the Jets in Week 3.

Other notable favorites: Cleveland Browns (-295; -7) vs. Washington Football Team (+255), Arizona Cardinals (-240; -5.5) vs. Detroit Lions (+205)


Highest Projected Total

Dallas Cowboys (24.5 points) at Seattle Seahawks (30.5 points; -5) 55.5 points

This game barely edged out the Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals, which has a projection of 55. The total on this game has not moved throughout the week as it opened at 55.5, whereas the spread as moved slightly more toward the Seahawks after opening at -4.5. The Seahawks have scored the second-most points in the league at 73, trailing only the Packers at 85. However, the Seahawks have also allowed some of the most fantasy points thus far. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.2 DKFP while receivers are at 73.5! For reference, the Vikings have allowed the second-most to opposing receivers and they’re at 54.6. There will be some really good matchup to target in this game, but none may be better than Tyler Lockett ($6,400) in the slot against CB Jourdan Lewis. Last season, Lewis allowed a 70.2% catch rate on 57 targets, allowing an average of 13.6 YPR with nearly half his yards allowed coming after the catch.


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DVP Matchups

This section will highlight the average DKFP allowed to each position. These numbers will reflect from how the ended in 2019 and will switch over to the current 2020 numbers beginning in Week 4.

Worst QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, 12.5, 1st
Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills, 14.6, 3rd
Carolina Panthers, Los Angeles Chargers, 14.9, T-4

Best QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Detroit Lions, Arizona Cardinals, 27, 32nd
Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans, 24.5, 31st
San Francisco 49ers, New York Giants, 22.6, 29th

Worst RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Denver Broncos, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 12.1, 1st
Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, 17.2, 2nd
New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers, 18.4, 3rd

Best RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina Panthers, 31.9, 32nd
Cleveland Browns, Washington Football Team, 30.1, 30th
Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions, 28.9, T28


Worst WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, 24.9, 1st
Carolina Panthers, Los Angeles Chargers, 28.8, 3rd
Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills, 29.5, 4th

Best WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Denver Broncos, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 45.3, 32nd
Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, 42.1, 31st
Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions, 42, 30th

Worst TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills, 9.1, 2nd
Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, 9.4, 3rd
Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, 9.6, 4th

Best TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Detroit Lions, Arizona Cardinals, 20.1, 32nd
Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks, 15.5, 31st
Seattle Seahawks, Dallas Cowboys, 15.4, 30th


Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals vs. Detroit Lions, $6,800 — Murray has been an absolute beast so far this season. Most of his damage has come on the ground, as he’s run for a total of 158 yards and three rushing touchdowns. The Lions have been gashed on the ground as it is already as well, which could pave the way for Murray to once again torture an opposing team with his legs. While his passing hasn’t been that great, in this expected shootout, he has a great opportunity to improve those numbers against a team that’s allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt. Getting pressure on Murray has been the recipe for opposing teams but the Detroit pass rush is hovering around league average.


Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals vs. Detroit Lions, $7,900 — Stacking Hopkins with Murray is extremely expensive, as it leaves you with an average of $5,043 for the remainder of your roster. With that said, how do you not take the guy who has 25 targets in two weeks? Hopkins will draw a very enticing matchup against Lions CB Amani Oruwariye. After allowing an 81.8% catch rate on 22 targets last season, Oruwariye has been targeted against seven times in 2020, allowing five catches for an average of 14.2 YPR. Hopkins will continue to soak up the majority of the targets, as he’s already accounted for 48% in the first two weeks.


Top Running Back To Consider

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Cincinnati Bengals, $6,400 — With so many injuries to the running back position, it’s not crazy to go lower down the list to find the potential top RB on the slate. Sanders reclaimed his RB1 role after missing Week 1 and came away with 20 carries for 95 yards and a touchdown and caught three of his seven targets for an addition 36 yards. This week, he’ll see a Cincinnati run defense that has already surrendered a league-leading 358 yards and four touchdowns. Sanders was on the field for 77% of the Eagles offensive snaps, and as the workhorse in this offense, he should see the lion share of touches. With the Eagles favored by -5 on the DraftKings Sportsbook, this is a great spot for him.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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