The Jaguars will host the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football, and while the teams have combined for just one win, they’ve been playing good teams tough to start the season. This TNF game could be a more entertaining battle than we’re giving credit for. While I’m not picking a side in this one, I think there are some strong plays in the player props section on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here are some bets that jump out prior to kickoff.
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Gesicki was the focal point of Miami’s offense in a tight loss to the Bills last week, securing 8-of-11 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars are the best matchup in the NFL for opposing TEs through two games, setting up a near perfect spot. Jonnu Smith only needed five targets to finish with a 4-84-2 line against the Jags last week, and the Colts’ TE duo combined for 69 yards back in Week 1. The Dolphins will face the cushiest defense they’ve seen yet in this game, and haven’t been able to get anything going on the ground through two games. Gesicki is the team leader in targets this season.
Editor’s Note: Jaguars WR DJ Chark (chest/back) has been ruled out for tonight’s game vs. the Dolphins.
Cole was off the radar to begin the season, with DJ Chark coming off a terrific season and Laviska Shenault getting a lot of hype as a rookie. However, Cole’s been the consistent producer of Jacksonville’s WR bunch, finishing with a 5-47-1 line in Week 1 and a 6-58-1 line in Week 2. Chark is banged up in this game, and while he’s trending towards playing through a chest injury, I think that should be a good thing for Cole. We want Chark commanding CB1 coverage, allowing Cole to continue playing the role he’s been comfortable in the first two weeks. Miami’s CB play has been poor through two games, and Cole’s still being undervalued in props and DFS for the time being. Since he’s undervalued and has been a red zone target for the Jags with a touchdown in both games thus far, I’ll take a small play on Cole’s anytime touchdown prop as well. This one should probably be closer to the +175 range.
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Gaskin has been the most involved of Miami’s RB trio, but his value has predominantly been in the passing game. He has 10 receptions on 11 targets through two games, so if we looked to an over on him, I’d play over 2.5 receptions, but the -148 price is a bit steep. Gaskin has just 16 total carries through two games, and it’s tough to see Miami deciding to get him to double-digit carries with Jordan Howard and Matt Breida both contributing. Howard’s been the goal-line back, with a touchdown in each of the first two games, with Breida also checking in for a change of pace. The Howard/Breida duo has combined for 25 carries through the first two games. As long as this backfield rotation continues, it’s tough to see Gaskin emerging as a double-digit carry player.
Set your DraftKings TNF lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (MIA vs JAX)
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