There’s just one basketball game in the NBA on Thursday as the Lakers and Nuggets square off in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals. Here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $500K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (LAL vs DEN)
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
The LeBron James assist prop has been the hot play this series, but he’s still just 2-1 to the number through three games, and over 8.5 is juiced all the way up to -152 in this one. Rondo is priced more reasonably and is 3-0 to the over in the series at this number. Rondo’s actually gone over this number in six of his last seven games since returning this postseason, and his assists per minute in this series are off the charts. He has 18 total assists in just 43 minutes in the first two games, and we saw his minutes jump to 30 in Game 3. Rondo uncharacteristically took 10 shots in that game, still dishing out eight dimes, but following the loss, I think we see him go back to looking to distribute more. If Rondo’s role remains 30 minutes, I’m expecting double digit assists in this one. He’s averaging 10.7 helpers per 30 so far in the series.
After showing some signs of life at the end of the series against the Clippers, Harris has been a complete no-show against the Lakers. He’s shooting just 5-of-18 from the field with 15 total points through three games, with a series-high of seven points in Game 3. Meanwhile, KCP is 14-of-24 in the series, hitting at least two 3-pointers and shooting at least 50% in each contest. He’s hit double figures in five consecutive outings, including 18, 11 and 12 so far against Denver, which is 13.7 points per game, compared to Harris’ 5.0. Anything can happen when dealing with role players like this, but the edge has been way too much in KCP’s favor so far to have this essentially priced as a pick’em.
This bet almost works with Rondo’s assist over, which should mean fewer shot attempts. Prior to his nine points on 10 shot attempts in Game 3, Rondo scored just 10 points on 10 shot attempts in the first two games combined. Grant has outscored Rondo in all three games so far, including a 26-point outburst on Tuesday. Grant has significantly more upside as a scorer, and even with a little extra juice, he isn’t priced as high as he should be.
Set your DraftKings lineups here: NBA Showdown $500K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (LAL vs DEN)
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