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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Predictions, Betting Odds for September 25

Steve Buchanan breaks down Friday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

MLB: San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The final weekend of the MLB regular season is upon us, which is crazy considering how fast it went by. For a season that many thought wouldn’t happen, this has been a highly entertaining season. Let’s get into the final fantasy baseball Cheat Sheet of the regular season before we head into the playoffs!

As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Carlos Carrasco, $10,400, CLE (-275) vs. PIT (+230) — We have three pitchers priced in the $10K range but Carrasco is my favorite, as well as the top favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. He faces a simply putrid Pirates offense, who against righties have produced a .265 wOBA, a .132 ISO and a 25.5% K%. As for Carrasco, he has allowed at least three runs in five of his 11 starts but his strikeout upside, especially in this matchup, is immense. Carrasco boasts a 28.8% K% and a 14.5% swing-and-miss rate, which should be on full display this evening. Even with some of the other high priced options available, Carrasco is by far my choice here.

Other notable favorites: Chris Bassitt ($7,900; -230) vs. Mariners, Clayton Kershaw ($10,00; -215) vs. Angels

Highest Projected Total

BOS (+150; 4.5 runs ) vs. ATL (-175; 5.5 runs ) — The Braves are not only big favorites against the Red Sox but they also have one of the highest teams totals on this slate at 5.5 against Chris Mazza ($5,600). In the rotation, I wouldn’t exactly say Mazza has been effective, posting a .387 wOBA, a 4.55 FIP and a 9.4% BB%. Now he faces arguably one of the best offenses in the league against righties, with the Braves sporting a team .371 wOBA, a .233 ISO and a 132 wRC+. The Red Sox’ bullpen continues to be a target as well, as over the last week they have a 4.77 FIP and a 5.5 BB/9. Stack the Braves with confidence tonight.

Other notable team totals: New York Yankees (5.5) vs. Miami Marlins, Chicago Cubs (4.5) vs. Chicago White Sox

Weather Concerns

No weather concerns!

Splits to Start

UPDATE: With teams mostly caught up on game, these numbers will now reflect the 2020 stats.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Kyle Wright, .415, 6.58
Chris Mazza, .391, 5.55
Dylan Cease, .381, 7.19

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Dinelson Lamet, .199, 2.75
Jose Urquidy, .199, 3.97
J.A. Happ, .240, 4.09

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Spencer Turnbull, .322, 3.92
Jose Berrios, .319, 2.87
Tyler Mahle, .307, 3.36

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Clayton Kershaw, .217, 2.39
Yu Darvish, .237, 0.83
Dinelson Lamet, .269, 2.17

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Carlos Carrasco, CLE vs. PIT, $10,400 — There’s really not much else to add here from what I talked about above with Carrasco. He’s my favorite pitcher of the night and the guy I’d be looking to use as the SP1. On that note, I think Yu Darvish ($10,800) is going to be the lesser owned option because of his matchup against the White Sox. While it is a tough team to face, they do strike out a lot and have the third-highest K% against righties at 26.2%. Something to think about.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Wil Myers, SDP at SFG, $5,000 — Myers has been crushing the hopes and dreams of lefties all season long but doesn’t get the recognition because some of the other bats in this lineup. Let’s not let the .432 wOBA, .305 ISO and four of his 14 home runs go overlooked anymore! Tonight he’ll face off against Tyler Anderson ($6,600), who is not missing many bats these days and has a 4.32 FIP against righties.

Save Big by Drafting

Jason Heyward, CHC at CWS, $3,700 — This is a great spot for the Cubs going against Dylan Cease ($8,200), who walks almost as many hitters as he’s struck out. When you sport a 13.7% BB% through 11 starts, you’re putting plenty of men on base. On top of that, Heyward, who bats lefty, is in a great spot because Cease has allowed a .381 wOBA vs. LHB with a 7.19 FIP and six of the nine home runs he’s allowed. At this dirt cheap salary and with Heyward producing a .219 ISO against righties, he’s a great play tonight.

Favorite Team To Stack

Minnesota Twins vs. CIN (vs. Tyler Mahle) — It was only a matter of time before the Twins’ offense really started firing on all cylinders and that’s what we’re getting now. In the month of September they’ve produced a team .342 wOBA a .232 ISO. Mahle has been good, don’t get me wrong, but he has been tagged with a .399 wOBA on the road against righties this season. I think the Twins can knock Mahle out of this game early, racking up quick fantasy points in the process.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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