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NBA Best Bets: Basketball Predictions to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for Heat vs. Celtics on September 27

Matt LaMarca gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s NBA betting card.

Miami Heat guard Goran Dragic reacts agains the Boston Celtics during the second half in game five of the Eastern Conference Finals of the 2020 NBA Playoffs at AdventHealth Arena. Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat will square off in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals Sunday at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Celtics were able to stave off elimination with a win in Game 5, but can they do it again in Game 6?

Let’s break down some of my favorite bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s NBA slate.

DraftKings users can get in on the action by betting on DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DK Sportsbook app.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $400K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (BOS vs MIA)

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics:

Heat +3.5 (-109)

The Celtics were able to secure a victory with their backs against the wall in Game 5, but the real story was Miami’s inability to generate any offense. The Heat posted an effective FG% of just 49.4% in that contest, which is well below their playoff average of 53.5%.

Specifically, the Heat could not get anything going from behind the three-point line. Miami shot just 20% from three-point range in Game 5, which ranked in just the first percentile according to Cleaning the Glass. Miami was the second-best three-point shooting team during the regular season, so that looks like a major outlier.

The Celtics’ defense is obviously going to make life tough for the Heat, but they were dismal even when they got open shots from three-point range in Game 5. They shot just 3-of-10 on “open” looks and 2-of-12 on “wide open” looks per in that contest. Shooting below 25% on those shot attempts is the definition of cold shooting and Miami is simply too good in that department to continue to struggle.

Despite the fact that the Heat couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat, they were still pretty competitive in Game 5. They were actually leading at halftime before allowing the Celtics to explode for 41 points in the third quarter.

Overall, I’m expecting some progression from the Heat and some regression from the Celtics in this contest. The early sharp betting apparently agrees as a whopping 92% of the spread dollars have landed on the Heat.

Goran Dragic Points

Over 19.5 (-134)

This line is simply too low for Dragic, who has been the driving force for Miami’s offense during the postseason. He has led the team in both points per game and usage rate and he should continue to carry a big workload on the offensive end of the court.

He’s coming off 23 points in Game 5 despite the fact that he didn’t shoot the ball particularly well. He was just 8-of-17 from the field and 1-of-7 from three-point range, so he has the potential for even more scoring if he’s a little more efficient.

Overall, Dragic has averaged 22.0 points per game during this series, so I have no problem banking on him to score at least 20 points in this contest.

Jae Crowder Points

Over 11.5 (+100)

Crowder is another player who I’m expecting some positive shooting regression from today. He has struggled mightily from behind the arc recently, including an 0-for-7 performance from three-point range in Game 5.

That said, he still managed to score 14 points in that contest despite the awful shooting performance. Crowder shot 41.7% from three-point range over his first 10 postseason contests, so there’s no reason to expect him to continue to struggle.

Place your bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DK Sportsbook app.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $400K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (BOS vs MIA)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.