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Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for Heat vs. Celtics Showdown on September 27

Greg Ehrenberg gives his top lineup advice for Sunday’s fantasy basketball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Celtics and Heat, which starts at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Miami Heat v Boston Celtics - Game Five Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images

With just one game on today’s NBA slate, we are focusing on the DraftKings Showdown contest between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics. With a win, Miami advances to take on the Lakers in the NBA Finals.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $400K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (BOS vs MIA)

Place your NBA bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DK Sportsbook app.

Showdown Strategy

Boston Celtics

The best fantasy producer in this series is Jayson Tatum ($15,900 CP/$10,600). If he’s not already there, Tatum is approaching superstar status and it’s showing in fantasy totals. Tatum has scored at least 52 DKFP in six of his last seven games and the production in this series is spread out beyond him. Since nobody else can come close to matching his ceiling in this game and his price isn’t all that crazy, he’s a pretty easy choice in the Captain’s spot.

For the entire playoffs, I have preferred Kemba Walker ($8,200) to Jaylen Brown ($8,600), but I am starting to pivot and think the opposite way. Whether it’s the knee injury or other factors, Walker is underwhelming relative to expectations in the postseason and there is a case that he is the fourth best player on the Celtics. Brown is playing much better between the two and has scored at least 39 DKFP in three straight games. Walker on the other hand has been held below that number in eight of his last nine games.

I am terrified of the Celtics’ center situation. It’s impossible to predict whether Robert Williams ($2,800) or Enes Kanter ($2,200) will play the backup center minutes. Each have upside if they enter the game, but it’s random on a day-to-day basis. If you have a good feel for who plays between the two, go ahead and roster that guy. My gut feeling is that it will be Kanter, although it’s hard to have confidence in that prediction.

One center we know will play minutes is Daniel Theis ($5,600). As Boston has condensed its rotation, Theis is playing more. He’s seen over 30 minutes in four of the last five games and is coming off a GPP winning performance with 39.75 DKFP. Theis is a strong play at his price point.

Miami Heat

With Bam Adebayo ($9,400) dealing with a sore wrist, Jimmy Butler ($9,000) played a bigger role last game. With the ball in his hands more often than normal, he dished out eight assists and scored 41.5 DKFP. I am still not convinced that Adebayo is completely healthy, leading me to think Butler is the better play of the two Miami All-Stars. Overall, Adebayo has been the better fantasy producer in this series, but he only scored 13 points and his usage dipped last game. I attribute that to the health of his wrist.

The salaries have gotten really close between Tyler Herro ($7,200) and Goran Dragic ($7,800). Of the two, I think Dragic is the better fantasy play. Herro exploded and scored 51 DKFP in Game 4, but crashed back to earth and put up 19.25 DKFP in Game 5. For the playoffs, Dragic is the better and more consistent fantasy producer. He’s scored at least 31 DKFP in 12 of the Heat’s 14 playoff games. It’s not often that he busts. Herro has been held under 30 DKFP in eight of team’s 14 postseason games.

Duncan Robinson ($5,000) has provided some nice value in this series. After playing limited minutes earlier in the playoffs, he’s proved too valuable to keep off the court. One of the best shooters in the league, Robinson brings a ton of floor spacing to the Miami offense and he’s scored over 20 DKFP in three of the last four games. The one risk here is that Robinson does sometimes get himself into early foul trouble. If fading him, it makes sense to get exposure to Andre Iguodala ($4,200) since he picks up extra minutes when Robinson is in foul trouble.

The Outcome

Can we witness another 3-1 comeback? After the Nuggets did it twice in the West, we have yet to see a team do it in the East. I actually do slightly favor Boston to win this game. Even if he isn’t playing all that well yet, Gordon Hayward ($6,800) coming back healthy adds extra depth to the Celtics and I think his production should start to look better now that he has a few games under his belt. With him healthy, I think the Celtics are the slightly better team.

Final Series Score: Celtics 108, Heat 105

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $400K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (BOS vs MIA)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is gehrenberg) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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