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DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Trends and Early NFL Predictions for Week 4

Steve Buchanan analyzes three player performances from Week 3 and gives his take on if it’ll continue or not in Week 4.

There is nothing better than some overreactions after the dust settles on a football Sunday. All of us armchair quarterbacks go and make our critiques and tell all our friends and family about what we would have done differently.

The great thing for me is, they asked me to do this and YOU’RE sitting here reading it! How about that?

For this piece, each week we’ll take a look at some players that either potentially overachieved or underachieved and what the outlook for them is moving forward — specifically for next week’s game. Are they set up for more success or could someone have simply had a bad week? My job here is to try and figure that out and relay that information to you. Let’s take a look!

Oh, feel free to tell me how wrong I am by getting at me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: NFL Showdown $2.25M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st]

EDITOR’S NOTE: Sunday’s Patriots-Chiefs game has been postponed, with the game scheduled to be played Monday night at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Week 3 Fantasy Total: 33.5 DKFP

Without Stefon Diggs in the mix, the Vikings receiver corps was essentially just Adam Thielen ($6,900; 12.3 DKFP) and then... well... whoever else was going to be on the field? Using the 22nd overall pick, which was acquired in the Diggs trade, they drafted LSU WR Justin Jefferson. Entering this game, we heard some whispers that the Vikings wanted to get the rookie more involved, especially with Kirk Cousins coming off one of his worst games of his career, in which he completed just 11-of-26 of his pass attempts for 113 yards and three interceptions.

If getting Jefferson in the mix was the plan, the Vikings did their job. Jefferson led the team in targets with nine and made seven catches for 175 yards, a touchdown and a massive 33.5 DKFP. During the early afternoon games, that was the highest fantasy total amongst all receivers. The chef’s kiss from Jefferson came in the form of a 71-yard touchdown in the third quarter, giving the Vikings a 23-12 lead at the time.

Jefferson played 51 snaps in Week 3, splitting it with 29 on the left, 16 on the right and six in the slot. This is a big change from how the Vikings have been utilizing him, as in the first two weeks, Jefferson was in the slot on 83% of his snaps. If this continues, He could end up seeing Texans CB Vernon Hargreaves in coverage, which would be a favorable matchup for Jefferson. With this newfound “weapon” for the Vikings, I’m loving the prospect of Jefferson in Week 4.

Rex Burkhead, New England Patriots
Week 3 Fantasy Total: 34.8 DKFP

Boy, oh boy. What an insane game for Burkhead, who was being heavily targeted out of the backfield by Cam Newton ($6,700; 12.18 DKFP). Burkhead drew 10 targets, which was a new career-high and made seven receptions for 49 yards and a touchdown. His previous career-high in targets was eight, which he set last year against the Steelers. On the ground, Burkhead only had six carries, but went for 49 yards and two rushing touchdowns. This marked his third career game with two rushing touchdowns and first with three overall.

While Burkhead was heavily involved today, his ceiling will be capped once James White (personal) is back in the mix. As you’d imagine, Burkhead has seen a very big increase in his snaps without White, playing 63 in Week 2 and 32 this week. Back in Week 1, Burkhead was on for 28 snaps while White was on for 19.

Once White returns, Burkhead will likely be back in more of a rotation and could see some of the goal line work and the occasional passing down play. If you lucked out in grabbing him here in Week 3, brag to your friends about how you were able to nail a 34.8 DKFP performer who had an average of 1.4% ownership across the board. With a likely boost in his salary in Week 4, his appeal will quickly drop with White likely returning.

Drew Sample, Cincinnati Bengals
Week 3 Fantasy Total: 1.1 DKFP

What a complete and total DISASTER rostering Sample was this week. He was a fairly popular play at the tight end position, drawing 10.1% ownership in the Milly Maker and an average of 10.9% overall. He was set up with a good matchup as well, as the Eagles had already allowed a total of nine receptions, 91 yards and FOUR touchdowns to the position in games against the Washington Football Team and the Rams. Add that on top of the fact that Sample, who drew a total of nine targets in Week 2 and saw a particularly heavy workload once CJ Uzomah was ruled out, was only $3.5K. You had yourself quite a cheap play at tight end.

Sample only received one lousy target which he caught for a single yard. Then, he was never heard from again. It’s not as if he wasn’t on the field, either, as he played on 64 snaps and even lined up in the slot on eight of them. To be fair, it’s not as if Joe Burrow ($6,200; 23.38 DKFP) was targeting other tight ends, as Cethan Carter ($2,500; 1.1 DKFP) caught his only target as well.

Week 4 will bring yet another good matchup for Sample against the Jaguars, who have allowed an average of 18.3 DKFP to the position. The Colts, Titans and Dolphins have combined for a total of 15 receptions on 19 targets for 220 yards and three touchdowns to TEs. I’d imagine Sample is going to take quite the dip in salary and this could be a good bounce back spot for him, that is of course, if anyone dares to play him again.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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