It’s rare that we get this type of matchup on MNF, in what sets up as the game of the regular season on paper and we expect to be an AFC Championship Game preview. You know it’s a big game when the Chiefs are priced as underdogs, as Baltimore is the 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 54.5. Lamar Jackson is 21-3 as a starter in the regular season and two of those losses have come to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
This should be an exciting game to bet, and everyone’s going to want in on the action. Here’s what jumps out on DraftKings Sportsbook.
BIG PLAY PAYDAY PROMO
Opt-in to our 4th quarter big play promo, and if there’s a 20-plus yard touchdown in the 4th quarter, you’ll win a ticket to a $100k contest on Sunday, Oct. 4.
Quarters: BAL 1Q -0.5 (+110)
Despite Mahomes’ 5-0-1 ATS record as an underdog, I do have a strong lean to the Ravens in this game. However, I’m not willing to bet Baltimore at anything worse than -3. If that line comes back on DKSB, I’d be willing to pull the trigger, but I think there may be even stronger ways to back the Ravens in this one. One of those ways is by targeting a fast start from Baltimore, which plays well with Kansas City coming out of the gates slow. The Ravens have held leads of three and four points through the first quarter of their first two games this season and have also finished strong, covering both games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 1-1 ATS and have taken their time easing into games. Kansas City has trailed 7-0 after the first quarter of both games this season. The slow starts date back to last season, with the Chiefs trailing in the first quarter in two of three playoff games, including the notorious 21-0 hole KC dug itself against Houston. We saw slow starts constantly from Kansas City in the regular season and Baltimore actually led this matchup 6-0 after the first in 2019, despite going on to lose the game. I expect the Ravens to be ready early.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $2.25M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
Team Props (Total Points): BAL 1H O13.5 (-143)
This is a somewhat correlated play with the Ravens coming out hot early, but the key numbers give us a better play on the first half total than the game. I would play the Ravens team total at over 27.5 if that were the case but set at 28.5, I’ll turn to a more friendly number in the first half — obviously allowing us to win on 14. Baltimore has been coming out throwing haymakers this season, scoring 24 first-half points against the Browns and 20 against the Texans. That 22-point average leads the NFL in first-half points, where the Ravens ranked third in 2019, scoring 17.1 points per game in the first half. Kansas City’s defense has had some clear regression this season, so I’ll lay the juice for the Ravens to pour it on early.
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app here to place bets on your smartphone!
Player Props: Marquise Brown OVER 51.5 Receiving Yards
I mentioned the Chiefs losing a step on defense and we’ve seen that lead to some big plays against the secondary. Last week, even with Justin Herbert making his unplanned NFL debut, Keenan Allen was able to go for 96 yards on seven receptions against KC. The previous week, Will Fuller was cut loose for 112 yards on eight grabs in the season opener. This is a pretty modest total for Brown, who caught five passes for 101 yards in Week 1 against the Browns and came up just shy of this mark in Week 2, with another five receptions for just 42 yards in Houston. A more competitive game against the Chiefs should also lead to more passing attempts, rather than running the ball late.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
Curious about when major leagues and events will return? Check out our DraftKings Sports Calendar for the latest updates.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ (18+ NH). NJ/PA/WV/IN/NH/IA/CO/IL only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.