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DraftKings Fantasy Football Early Look: NFL Week 4 DFS Picks, Sleepers, Fades

Julian Edlow goes position-by-position breaking down some of the best and worst targets for Week 4’s main DraftKings NFL slate, which locks at 1:00 p.m. ET on October 4.

This will be the second-straight main slate we’re without Aaron Rodgers for a primetime game, but we get back some top targets in Lamar Jackson and Drew Brees, who were all off the main slate last week. The player pool is strong in Week 4, but we do need to be careful after the first COVID-19 outbreak of the season. For that reason, I’m going to be staying away from players in the TEN/PIT and MIN/HOU games. If those games are played, the Steelers and Texans would be in tremendous spots. Here are some targets on DraftKings that jumped out during my first look at the 13-game slate.

Editor’s note: The NFL is rescheduling Sunday’s Titans-Steelers game to later in the season.

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EDITOR’S NOTE: Sunday’s Patriots-Chiefs game has been postponed, with the game scheduled to be played Monday night at 7:05 p.m. ET.


Quarterback

Expensive

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens at The Washington Football Team ($8,100) — This slate is stacked with QB plays. Jackson is the highest priced of the bunch, yet he’s the only one in the top-five not averaging over 30.0 DKFP. Had salaries come out after we saw Jackson and Patrick Mahomes ($7,400) go head to head on MNF, we’d likely see Jackson cheaper and Mahomes more expensive. But maybe we can use that to our advantage if it means getting Jackson at lower ownership against Washington. After an embarrassing MNF performance, look for the Ravens to bounce-back strong in this spot. But you really can’t go wrong with any of the play above $7K at QB.

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins ($7,800) — As for my favorite of the group, it’s the obvious one. You probably want to go in a different direction in large field GPPs, but for cash and single-entries, I’m looking at Russ. The MVP front-runner has scored at least 34.0 DKFP in each game so far, tossing 14 touchdowns to just one interception (which wasn’t even his fault). The Dolphins rank 30th in DKFP allowed to QBs, and while there’s some blowout risk here, Seattle’s defense might be bad enough to keep Miami in the game. No reason anyone shouldn’t be sold on Wilson this week.

Cheap

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys ($5,800) — I think there are some good value QB plays on this slate, all of which should be low owned because of how good the top of the field is. But Mayfield’s in the strongest spot of the group, going against an awful Dallas defense, while likely having to keep up with the high-flying Cowboys’ offense. Mayfield’s yet to really breakout in a game, but the matchups and game script haven’t presented a spot like this yet. This is where Baker should be able to air it out against the second-worst defense versus QBs so far this season.

Other Options: Joe Burrow ($6,300), Matthew Stafford ($5,900), Drew Brees ($5,800), Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,400)


Running Back

Expensive

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions ($8,000) — Major injuries have thinned out the top of the RB pool, leaving Kamara to standout as an even better target. He’s been the Saints’ top receiver with Michael Thomas (ankle) out, catching 22-of-23 targets over the last two weeks for 234 yards. Kamara’s scored two touchdowns in all three games this season, averaging 36.6 DKFP heading into a matchup against the third-worst defense versus RBs. Lock him into your cash lineup.

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,100) — After letting a lot of us down in Week 1, Justin Herbert ($5,800) has been exactly what Ekeler’s fantasy stock needed. He’s caught all 15 of his targets for 139 yards since the QB change, still earning 28 total carries in the two-game span. The Bucs have been below average in DKFP allowed to RBs so far this season, and the game script as roughly touchdown underdogs sets up for another heavy dose of targets.

Cheap

Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Giants ($5,800) — This slate is going to need some news to create any really cheap RB value, but the $5.5K to $6.5K range is loaded with good targets. Any of the names below are worth considering, but Henderson could wind up being in the situation that leads to the most volume. The Giants have been pathetic so far this season, and have given up big games to RBs each of the first three weeks. The Rams sit as almost two-touchdown favorites in this one, and Henderson has emerged as the Rams’ top back the last two weeks. He followed up a 12-81-1 line with a heavy workload against the Bills in Week 3, going for 20-114-1 in a game the Rams fell behind big. He also has three targets in the passing game each of the last two outings, scoring over 20.0 DKFP in each.

Other Options: James Robinson ($6,500), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,400), Kenyan Drake ($6,000), Mike Davis ($5,700), Rex Burkhead ($4,800)


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Wide Receiver

Expensive

DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers ($8,500) — A lot of the big name WRs are off this slate, making Hopkins even easier to lock in on, despite another salary increase. Hopkins has scored over 20.0 DKFP in all three games this season, despite scoring just one touchdown. That speaks to how heavily targeted he has been, averaging 10.6 receptions for 118.7 yards. The Panthers are yet another matchup he should thrive in.

DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins ($6,800) — Behind Hopkins, the Seahawks’ WR duo is probably in the next-safest spot to count on for production. Tyler Lockett ($7,000) should be the more popular of the two, following a 9-100-3 line for 40.0 DKFP. Meanwhile, people will remember Metcalf for his bonehead play that turned a touchdown into a touchback. He would’ve had a 30.0 DKFP game had he not made that mistake. Metcalf is essentially averaging four catches, 100 yards and a touchdown each week, and he’s a massive threat to go for multiple deep touchdowns sooner or later. The matchup against Miami could be the spot for it.

Cheap

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints ($6,000) — This is going to be a tight slate unless we get some big news. Like RB, WR doesn’t really have any deep values that are must-play. I expect a lot of eyes here to go to Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,800), and rightfully so. But Golladay quietly put together a solid season debut in Week 3, catching 6-of-7 targets for 57 yards and a touchdown (17.7 DKFP). The Saints have gotten some of the most sloppy secondary play of any team this season, and I expect Golladay to take advantage.

Other Options: Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,800), DeVante Parker ($5,700), Julian Edelman ($5,700), Cole Beasley ($4,700)


Tight End

Expensive

Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills ($5,200) — Waller was shutout by the Patriots, but he was the focal point of the game plan against a very good defense. Should other teams try to do to Waller what New England did? Absolutely. But they don’t seem to. The Bills rank just 24th versus TEs so far this season, which Las Vegas should look to exploit. But given the pricing in Week 4, we probably won’t have the luxury of paying up at TE.

Cheap

Mo Alie-Cox, Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears ($3,900) — Fortunately there is plenty of good value here. Alie-Cox has been one of the bright spots in the Colts’ passing game, making the most of his opportunity at a banged up position. Over the last two weeks MAC has caught 8-of-9 targets for 161 yards and a touchdown, averaging 16.6 DKFP. In a favorable matchup against the Bears, I’ll keep rolling him out there.

Other Options: Jimmy Graham ($3,800), Logan Thomas ($3,500), Drew Sample ($3,500)


D/ST

Expensive

Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST vs. Los Angeles Chargers ($3,400) — Ravens D/ST ($4,000) probably stands out most in a Washington fade, but let’s not forget how bad the Chargers looked with Herbert last week. He put up some numbers on volume at the end of the game, but was largely ineffective. Now the rookie QB will play on the road for the first time against a Tampa defense that’s very underrated. The Bucs’ DST is averaging 16.0 DKFP over the last two weeks without even finding the end zone. It has racked up six turnovers, 11 sacks and a safety, and should give Herbert a very tough time.

Cheap

Detroit Lions D/ST vs. New Orleans Saints ($2,200) — I’m not at all sold on the Saints on either side of the ball. The Lions’ DST was solid enough to score 7.0 DKFP at Arizona last week in an upset, and I think they’re in a spot to surprise many again. Detroit’s defensive numbers haven’t been impressive so far, but maybe the three interceptions last week give it some confidence.

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