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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for September 30

Steve Buchanan breaks down Wednesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

The first night of the Wild Card series was indeed, wild. Who would have thought that the future American League Cy Young award winner would have been rocked for seven runs through 4 23 innings? Or that Robbie Ray would only give up one run through three innings? What shall Wednesday bring!?! We’re about to find out.

As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Wild Wednesday [$50K to 1st]


Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Chris Paddack, $8,800, SDP (-167) vs. STL (+145) — Personally, I think this series is one of the biggest mismatches overall. The Cardinals’ and Padres’ offense are not even on the same planet. The Cardinals ended the season with the LOWEST overall ISO at .137. Think about that — the Cardinals had a lower ISO than teams like the Pirates and Mariners. Paddack is taking this start after a rocky season but faces a team that had a .305 wOBA, a .131 ISO and a 24.3% K% against righties. While I’m not in a position to want to trust Paddack on my roster, putting these offenses side by side is not even close. Give me the Padres here.

Other notable favorite: Kyle Hendricks (-165) vs. Marlins

Highest Projected Total

STL (+145; 3.5 runs ) vs. SDP (-167; 4.5 runs ) — This game also features one of the higher totals on the slate that, as you’d imagine, don’t have big totals. The Padres have a team total of 4.5 against the Cardinals, who are running out lefty Kwang-hyun Kim ($7,100). Facing lefties wasn’t a problem for the Padres, who had a team .323 wOBA, a .182 ISO and a 104 wRC+. Despite making eight starts, Kwang didn’t go deep into his starts, as he only threw more than five innings in two of them. The Padres are in a great spot to jump on him early, despite his good numbers which were certainly helped by a very easy schedule.


Weather Concerns

No weather concerns!


Splits to Start

UPDATE: With teams mostly caught up on games, these numbers will now reflect the 2020 stats.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Chris Paddack, .350, 5.59
Chris Bassitt, .324, 4.37
Carlos Carrasco, .312, 4.07

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Kyle Hendricks, .241, 3.19
Trevor Bauer, .258, 3.90
Tyler Glasnow, .265, 2.41


Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Masahiro Tanaka, .365, 3.85
Lance McCullers Jr., .338, 4.61
Chris Paddack, .332, 4.36

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Trevor Bauer, .192, 1.76
Sandy Alcantara, .215, 2.77
Kwang-hyun Kim, .245, 4.23


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Tyler Glasnow, TB vs. TOR, $8,400 — Amazingly, Glasnow didn’t face the Blue Jays during the regular season despite being in the same division. After a rough start to the season, Glasnow came into form and ended the season with 57 1/3 innings pitched with a 3.66 FIP, a 38.2% K% and a 9.2% BB%. The Blue Jays, as an offense, are much stronger against lefties than they are righties. They ranked around league average against the fastball, which Glasnow has thrown 61% of the time. For his salary and the strikeout upside he brings, he feels like one of the stronger plays on the eight-game slate.


Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Manny Machado, SDP vs. STL, $5,500 — Machado heads into the postseason red hot, posting a .376 wOBA with a .232 ISO with five of his 16 home runs in the month of September. Now he draws a very good matchup against the lefty Kwang-hyun Kim ($7,100) to kick off the Wild Card series. Kwang posted some strong numbers during the regular season, but he also enjoyed a very favorable schedule, facing only the Pirates (three times) Brewers (twice) Reds (twice) and Cubs. Machado has always and continues to rake against lefties with his .400 wOBA and .250 ISO on the year.


Save Big by Drafting

Kyle Schwarber, CHC vs. MIA, $3,800 — The Cubs will be facing Sandy Alcantara ($6,800), who is coming off one of his best starts of the season against the Yankees. Alcantara threw 7 13 innings allowing three runs (two earned) on six hits with nine strikeouts. The knock against him, though, is his numbers against lefties. On the season, he posted a .369 wOBA with a 4.97 FIP and a 13.3% BB%. Schwarber wasn’t a consistent bat, but he did hit for plenty of power, posting a .239 ISO against righties.


Favorite Team To Stack

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Brent Suter) — The Dodgers against lefties was a bit of a struggle to start the season but Los Angeles was able to boost that as the season came to a close. The Dodgers ended the year with a .335 wOBA, a .192 ISO and just a 20.7% K%. Aside from that, the Dodgers are in line to face two pitchers, with Freddy Peralta ($8,200) expected to enter in long relief, who throw the fastball at least 66% of the time. Suter ($8,300) is on the lower end while Peralta is at 77%. The Dodgers were the second-best team against that pitch, pitting them against what’s been a very flimsy bullpen.


Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $200K Wild Wednesday [$50K to 1st]

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