DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks: NFL Week 4 Top High-Upside DFS Targets

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

By Geoffrey Ulrich@thefantasygrind Updated Oct 4, 2020, 8:20am PDT

Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be lower-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here most weeks too, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.

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EDITOR’S NOTE: Sunday’s Patriots-Chiefs game has been postponed, with the game scheduled to be played Monday night at 7:05 p.m. ET.

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Stacks

Miami Dolphins vs. Seattle Seahawks

Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,400) – DeVante Parker ($5,700) – Tyler Lockett ($7,000)

So far, Seattle’s defense has allowed a shocking 430 yards passing per game and may now be without both starting safety Jamal Adams and cornerback Quinton Dunbar for Week 4 against the Dolphins. While the injuries may spell danger for Seattle -6.5 bettors, it also makes this a great spot to deploy a cheap Ryan Fitzpatrick in DFS. Fitzpatrick completed 18-of-20 passes last week, but will certainly be called on to sling it more here in Week 4. Opposing QBs have now averaged a mind-blowing 51 pass attempts against Seattle and only one has failed to throw for more than 400 yards. This situation is also great for WR DeVante Parker, who looked fully healthy for the first time all season last week, as he dominated the Jags cornerbacks to catch all five of his targets. The line could have easily been bigger for Parker last Thursday, who played his biggest workload of the year (92% of snaps), but he wasn’t needed due to a pathetic effort by Jacksonville.

Parker will almost certainly be needed more this week, though, and that’s because the Dolphins secondary is likely to be in way over its head with Tyler Lockett. CB Byron Jones is questionable at best for Week 4, which will again force Miami to use UDFA Jamal Perry in the slot. Beyond Lockett’s matchup here, he’s also benefitting from the Seahawks move to a more passing-based offense, which has them throwing on over 5% more plays than they did in 2019. This game has a 54.5 O/U as of writing, so going with a full stack and rounding things out with a low-owned Preston Williams ($4,500) — or Carlos Hyde ($5,300) on the other side — also makes sense. These passing games are both in great spots and the result should produce multiple big fantasy days.

Just Missed: Josh Allen ($7,300) –Stefon Diggs ($6,800) – Darren Waller ($5,200)

Quarterback

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders ($7,300)

Allen has had an MVP caliber start to the year, producing three-straight 300-plus yard passing games and a 72% completion rate. The increased accuracy has been the biggest surprise so far and it has led to a 9.1 yards per completion rate that is over two yards higher than what he’s produced in his previous two seasons. He’s yet to explode for a massive rushing game, but that could come this week against the Raiders. Las Vegas has allowed the fifth-most rush yards per game in the league thus far and has a defensive line that gets almost zero-pressure, as evidenced by the second-worst adjusted sack rate in the league. After ranking just 26th in pass play percentage last year, Buffalo has switched to a more passing-based offense in 2020, throwing on 61% of their plays so far (ninth-most in the league). Allen could go off here as a runner and passer and shouldn’t be ignored, even at this higher price, which will likely help keep his ownership suppressed in GPPs.

Just Missed: Lamar Jackson ($8,100)

Running Back

Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers ($6,000)

Drake has been pretty chalky on DraftKings the last couple of weeks, surpassing 20% ownership in most big-field GPPs. With zero TDs and just 3 receptions to his credit in the Cardinals’ last two games, it won’t be shocking to see that ownership take a dip here in Week 4. While he is losing some snaps to Chase Edmonds ($4,200) — and red zone rushes to Kyler Murray ($7,000) — the matchup vs. Carolina says you should probably keep the faith here on the Drake for one more game. The Panthers have given up the second-most fantasy points and the most rushing TDs to RBs so far in 2020. While Murray is still going to make some plays a runner, don’t be shocked if the team overcompensates for his three interception performance against Detroit and dials up a few more rush plays for Drake this week. He’s a great boom-or-bust GPP target at a price-tag that remains easy to fit in.

Darrell Henderson Jr., Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Giants ($5,800)

Henderson was the best RB for Los Angeles last week, helping them nearly pull off what would have been one of the most dramatic comebacks of the year. The second-year back split snaps equally with veteran Malcolm Brown ($4,700) in Week 3, but badly out-produced him, registering 114 yards on the ground on 20 carries for a 5.7 yard average. Perhaps more significantly, Henderson was the predominate red zone back for the Rams when the comeback was in full force, taking six red zone touches to Brown’s one on the day. With Brown nursing a broken finger and being largely ineffective — and Cam Akers (ribs) very questionable for Week 4 — it could be full steam ahead this week for Henderson, who is taking on a Giants team that allowed multiple big plays to the 49ers’ RBs last week. Watch the news on Akers, if he gets ruled out, Henderson’s upside would increase dramatically in this spot.

Just Missed: Kareem Hunt ($6,200)

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Wide Receiver

Will Fuller, Houston Texans vs. Minnesota Vikings ($5,800)

The Minnesota Vikings have been one of the biggest disappointments of the 2020 season thus far. The Vikes have allowed the second-most passing yards per game (350.0) through three weeks and are sporting a secondary that lacks depth and skill at pretty much every position. If Mike Hughes (neck) doesn’t come back this week then Fuller likely get matched up here with seventh-round draft pick Kris Boyd, who ran a high 4.5 40-yard dash out of college — Fuller ran 4.32. Despite posting a goose-egg in Week 2, Fuller remains the clear WR1 for Houston and, so far, the only true WR1 Minnesota has faced was Davante Adams back in Week 1, who ate their proverbial lunch with 14 catches and 156 yards. This is a get right spot for Fuller who may still garner low-to-average ownership this week as many DFS players won’t commit to trusting him after the Week 2 debacle.

DJ Chark, Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals ($6,000)

Chark missed last Thursday’s game with a chest ailment, but his tests early this week were negative for any serious damage. This doesn’t mean he’s necessarily good-to-go for Week 4, but things are progressing in the right direction after he was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice. If he goes full on Thursday or Friday, this would be a great spot to potentially capitalize on injury concerns that may be unwarranted. The Jaguars looked lost without him on the field last Thursday and he’ll have a solid matchup against the Bengals, who allowed a similar WR in Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,800) to go for multiple big plays two weeks ago. Chark’s always just one big play away from a monster fantasy day and warrants attention if he gets cleared given the chance for insanely low ownership in a solid matchup.

Just Missed: Keenan Allen ($6,500)

Tight End

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens at Washington Football Team ($6,000)

Washington grades out as one of the worst teams in guarding against the TE position so far in 2020 for fantasy purposes. The Football Team has allowed the sixth-most DKFP to opposing TEs and gave up two TDs and 11 catches to the position the last time they faced a TE-heavy pass scheme vs. the Eagles in Week 1. Mark Andrews led the Ravens in targets last season and sits just one behind the team lead in that department after three games. His slow start to 2020 may be hurting you in season-long, but it’s also created a great buy-low opportunity in DFS this week. Andrews is playing more snaps than he did last year, seeing the field on a career-high 79% of the offensive plays last week. The Ravens are coming in off an embarrassing loss and will be facing a Washington team who is banged up defensively, with Chase Young doubtful for this game. Look for Lamar Jackson ($8,100) to take advantage of the Washington injuries and this matchup to get Andrews going again this week.

Just Missed: Tyler Higbee ($5,700)

D/ST

Dallas Cowboys ($3,300) vs. Cleveland Browns

The Cowboys beleaguered defense may be in for a bit of reprieve this week. Despite a secondary with all kinds of personnel and performance issues, Dallas has looked okay in other areas, including against the run where they’ve allowed just 3.8 yards per carry — the 10th-best mark in the league at the moment. They’ve gone against three talented passing offenses thus far, so their proficiency there hasn’t mattered much yet, but it should this week. Cleveland’s offensive line ranks just 17th in adjusted sack rate and, as a team, they’ve thrown for just 216 yards per game (seventh-worst in the league). Cowboys DE Aldon Smith — who is enjoying a renaissance season — recorded three sacks and four hurries last game and could be line for his second big performance in a row here. As home favorites, the Cowboys D/ST could end up being one of the bigger shock plays at this position in Week 4.

Just missed: Indianapolis Colts ($3,300)