The NBA playoffs roll on and Saturday brings us a two-game betting card. Here’s what stands out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook on Saturday.
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Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors
Raptors +1 (-112)
This is an interesting line. The Raptors were favored in each of the first three games of the series. Oddly, it wasn’t until Toronto won a game that the betting line moved in favor of Boston. I still view the Raptors as the slightly stronger team of the two and eventually, three-point shooting will go their way. To this point, Boston is making a much higher percentage of threes even though these teams are creating about the same number of open looks from deep. Fred VanVleet has seen a ton of open shots in the series and has only converted on 27.2% of his three-point attempts. The Raptors should see positive regression in shooting going forward and the shot made by OG Anunoby to win on Thursday could be the sign of things to come.
Kyle Lowry Total Points
OVER 21.5 points (+100)
I am bullish on Lowry in DFS and in the betting market due to his recent workload. With the Raptors needing a win in Game 3, he played all but 90 seconds of the game. The Raptors have no issue playing Lowry as many minutes as needed to win games. Toronto is basically the opposite of how the Bucks and Mike Budenholzer are handling their rotation. After Lowry played 46.5 minutes and scored 31 points to go along with eight assists on Thursday, I think he could go way over his player props today. Unless he is in foul trouble or gets hurt, Lowry is going to play massive minutes as the Raptors try to even this series at two games apiece.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
Nuggets +9.5 (-113)
The first game of this series did not go the Nuggets’ way. This wasn’t all that surprising and the deck was stacked against them. Following a hard-fought series against the Jazz that went seven games, Denver had just one day off before starting a series against a rested Clippers team. The Nuggets got run off the court and the game was never really competitive. The good news is that Denver took its starters off the court early to preserve them for later in the series. Now the Nuggets move onto Game 2 as a massive underdog. I don’t think they win this game, nor do I think they have a great chance to win the series but they are in a better position to compete than they were on Thursday. I like Denver’s chances to keep this game somewhat close and cover the spread.
Jamal Murray Points, Rebounds & Assists
OVER 34.5 (+110)
As for DFS, I think Murray is way overpriced. He is priced with the likes of Nikola Jokic, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard and I don’t think he’s anywhere near the level of those players. With that said, I think the market is over correcting a bit when it comes to his counting stats. Even if he should regress from his numbers against the Jazz, 34.5 points, rebounds and assists is a really low number considering his recent workload. We are also getting plus money on the over. Against Utah, he averaged 31.6 points, 6.3 assists and 5.6 rebounds. Denver needs Murray to come up big in this series to compete with the Clippers, and he should play over 40 minutes per game.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is gehrenberg) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.