We’ve got another two-game postseason slate on Monday, featuring Game 5 between the Celtics and Raptors and Game 3 between the Nuggets and Clippers. Here are some plays that jump out on DraftKings on this two-game slate.
Worth Paying Up For: Kyle Lowry, TOR vs. BOS ($8,200)
Lowry has found his groove in Toronto’s back-to-back wins this series, going for at least 54 DKFP in each outing. His upside to have a big game as a scorer gives him a nice ceiling here but he has had some strong games even on poor or average shooting performances. That ability to stuff the stat sheet also makes him a relatively safe play.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Patrick Beverley, LAC vs. DEN ($3,700)
Beverley is back in the mix for the Clippers. There’s plenty of risk given how few minutes he’s playing (12 in Game 1 and 15 in Game 2) but there’s also very slim value at PG. Beverley still managed 19 DKFP in Game 1, so if he can knock down a few shots as he did in that one, there’s potential here. I’d imagine he sees his minutes go up slightly once again, so if he can have a relatively average game, he’d make for a solid value.
There just isn’t much value at PG, which means paying up at the position, outside of Bev. Both Raptors guards feel like the strongest plays but tournament pivots to Kemba Walker ($8,000) and Jamal Murray ($8,900) could make sense. Murray would particularly stand out if we get any bad news about Nikola Jokic ($9,700), who’s questionable with a wrist injury.
Worth Paying Up For: Jaylen Brown, BOS vs. TOR ($7,500)
I’m expecting Jayson Tatum ($9,300) to be the more popular Boston wing, so I’ll take the discount and look for a bounce-back game from Brown. Tatum has only exceeded value once in this series and averages fewer than 40 DKFP in eight matchups against the Raptors this season. Meanwhile, Brown could get overlooked after a Game 4 dud in which he shot just 4-of-18 from the field, including 2-of-11 from deep. He has posted essentially the same production as Tatum in this matchup, so I’ll take the cheaper, lower-owned player.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Gary Harris, DEN vs. LAC ($4,100)
It’s tough to slowly ease back into a role in the playoffs like Harris is being asked to do but he’s showing progress. He played 29 minutes in the Game 2 victory and had by far his best game shooting since he returned, canning 4-of-7 threes. If he can recapture some of his offensive production and see around 30 minutes, Harris has the potential to make for elite value. His presence on the floor is welcomed in this series as a strong perimeter defender against the Clippers’ two studs.
I don’t think there’s an obvious cash play at SG, so you can feel free to mix things up here. Some of the top PG plays are SG eligible, so you might see more two-PG lineups than usual. I think Harris is the best guard value on the slate, so he’s actually the most valuable play to me given the lack of places to pay down.
Worth Paying Up For: Paul George, LAC vs. DEN ($8,300)
This is a lot like playing Brown over Tatum. Kawhi Leonard ($10,300) is spectacular, but Denver has not been an easy matchup for him. Kawhi has scored 45 or fewer DKFP in both games this series and averages just under 42 DKFP in five matchups against the Nuggets this season. Paul George has put up almost identical fantasy production for $2,000 less.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Jerami Grant, DEN vs. LAC ($5,200)
Grant’s defense and versatility on the floor have earned him a much larger role as the postseason has progressed, playing at least 35 minutes in five of the past six games. He played 40 minutes in Game 2 and despite shooting just 1-for-9, still scored 28.75 DKFP. He’s going to earn a lot of minutes to cover Kawhi and PG, and when that turns into a game his shot is also falling, there’s a lot of upside here. Grant had seven boards, two assists, four rejections and two steals in Game 2.
This is a position where my favorite overall play is taking the value on Denver again. I just think Harris and Grant are so crucial to have on the floor for defensive purposes and if the Joker winds up with any limitations, their roles only grow. But we have to spend up somewhere on the slate, so I do expect Tatum and Kawhi to be heavily owned as well. Both are solid spots to buy some points but I don’t think either player is in a spot you’d want to target them if this weren’t a two-game slate.
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Worth Paying Up For: Pascal Siakam, TOR vs. BOS ($8,100)
In the two games this series that Siakam has stayed out of foul trouble, he’s played 43 and 46 minutes, scoring over 42 DKFP in each. Nick Nurse played Siakam 46 minutes last game, indicating that he’ll keep him out there for nearly the whole game in a crucial spot if he doesn’t pick up fouls. That makes Siakam a pretty safe play moving forward in this series.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Paul Millsap, DEN vs. LAC ($4,700)
After an awful series against the Jazz, Millsap has been asked to do more in this series and Denver is seeing results. He saw just 24 minutes in the Game 1 blowout but Millsap was one of the only bright spots for the Nuggets, scoring 33.25 DKFP. While he came back with just 22.5 DKFP in Game 2, we saw that Millsap should have a large role in the series, playing 32 minutes.
Obviously, the Denver value is the main theme of this slate. Even if you like the Clippers to win this one pretty handily like I do, these guys are getting too many minutes to justify their salary. If Jokic is out, Millsap and Grant would likely have to help fill some center minutes.
Worth Paying Up For: Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. LAC ($9,700)
So if Jokic plays, he’s worth considering. For starters, he’s the only stud center play on the slate but he’ll also likely come at very low ownership if he’s not ruled in until after the first game locks. People will be tempted to spend on Tatum, Lowry, Siakam, Kemba, etc., making it tough to fit Joker.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Robert Williams, BOS vs. TOR ($3,800)
Williams has seen his overall production drop off a little but he’s still playing very efficient minutes for Boston. This is a matchup the Celtics like to get Williams 15-plus minutes, in which he can do a lot more than most others.
I’d likely play it safe with a value at center but I think rostering Joker in GPPs could be some great leverage. Rather than lock in a star from the early game, maybe find a way to use the UTIL on Joker if he plays but be able to pivot to Murray, Kawhi or PG if he sits.
OUT (Opt-out players not included)
Gordon Hayward (ankle)
Nikola Jokic (wrist)
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