We’re trying something a bit new this year, as I’ll be taking a season-long ride we’re calling “The Bankroll Challenge.”
Basically, I’ll start with 50 units to wager on DraftKings Sportsbook for this NFL season and try to build that bankroll as large as possible. In order to do that, I’ll save the majority of my bankroll to use week-to-week, but betting futures has been profitable for me in recent seasons, so I’ll want to sprinkle some in.
This article is going to be where my most confident plays go, so while a best bets article may highlight the top five bets to consider one week, this is the place I’ll be posting selective bets that I’m most confident in, along with a unit amount.
This article will also be a running blog, so look for more plays to be dropped in throughout the week with fresh updates.
I’m going to avoid player props all together this season. It’s just too messy of a year to put faith in players being on the field each week.
I’ll be dropping back in to add a couple of win total plays before the season gets underway. Raiders Under 7.5 and Giants Under 6.5 were two of my favorite offseason bets I’ve made, but both of those numbers have already moved down by a half game.
Here’s how I’m betting NFL futures on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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A futures parlay generally is more of a long-shot play, but these are two of my most confident spots, which is why I’m fine laying the juice.
The Super Bowl Champs come back fully loaded for the 2020 season, with many of their core pieces locked in long-term. Kansas City used the offseason to add to positions of need and secure its QB/coaching combo for the foreseeable future.
As for the competition, I’m high on the Broncos, which is a team I’ll find a way to back in a future in some way before the season gets underway, and likely back early in the season. However, while the Broncos should improve, 9-10 wins would be a really successful season for them. The Chiefs are gunning for at least 12-4.
The Chargers have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, but this is a bridge year for them. Tyrod Taylor is a solid pro, and while his lack of mistakes might be a nice upgrade over Philip Rivers at times, his overall talent and familiarity with this team could take some adjusting. Justin Herbert will constantly be looming to take over his future role. As for the Raiders, they couldn’t be any less of a threat and were one of my bigger future plays when their win total sat at under 7.5.
Baltimore comes at a much cheaper price, with the Steelers and Browns looming as threats. While those teams have things going for them on the defensive side of the ball, I can’t buy in on the offenses making large enough leaps to win this division.
Pittsburgh gets Ben Roethlisberger back under center, but I’m not sure I can put any faith in his health. Baker Mayfield has said the right things this offseason, but can the Browns actually put it together on the field? The Bengals’ future certainly brightened up with Joe Burrow, but it’ll take some time for that team to become a threat in the division.
The Ravens have zero red flags, and only shored up one of the most well-rounded rosters in the NFL. Unless Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson goes down, it’s tough to see a path where this doesn’t hit.
Since Russell Wilson arrived in Seattle in 2012, the Seahawks have made the playoffs in seven of eight seasons. During that span, Seattle is averaging 10.75 wins and still went 9-7 when it missed the postseason in 2017.
Keep in mind that each conference added a Wild Card team, so seven teams make the playoffs, and 9-7 likely gets it done. The Seahawks are coming off an 11-5 year, finishing a goal line stand away from winning the division over the 49ers. Solid coaching and a great QB are a recipe for success in the NFL, and the Seahawks have clearly figured something out.
At such a short number, this one was a no-brainer for me. The pieces around Wilson are there, and the defense is always solid.
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The Jags are kind of showing their hand here, shedding a ton of talent over the offseason and doing nearly nothing to replace it. Jacksonville has the lowest win total in the NFL at 4.5, with heavy juice on the under. However, rather than lay that juice, I think if they win fewer than four games, there’s a great shot they wind up finishing at the bottom of the NFL.
This franchise has essentially gutted itself to tank for Trevor Lawrence, and it’s hard to convince yourself that the current roster will be able to compete in too many games. Virtually all of the high first-round talent drafted over the last 10 years is gone, and it’s time to start over. It’s a smaller bet here, because unlike betting a team to win a four-team division or make a seven-team playoff bracket, we need the Jags to be the absolute bottom of the barrel, but I still like the price a lot here.
FUTURE UNITS PENDING: 5.88
UNITS REMAINING: 44.22
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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