It’s Tuesday, but it feels more like a Monday coming off the long weekend. To help cure those Tuesday (Monday) blues, we have a nine-game slate to focus on. Let’s keep the fluff of this intro minimal and get right to it.
As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mike Clevinger, $9,700, SD (-250) vs. COL (+200) — First and foremost, let me just inform you that the Dodgers are -250 favourites, as well. I’m so damn sick and tired of writing up the Dodgers as big favorites, so I’m writing about Clevinger instead. If you don’t like it, too bad. Sorry to be rude. I just needed to get that off my chest. Go Dodger blue!
Anyways, Clevinger has a fantastic matchup against the Rockies, who are a different looking offense away from Coors Field (duh). To be fair, it’s a dramatic drop off, as they sport a just a .282 wOBA and a .137 ISO away from Coors Field. The strikeout potential isn’t huge with a 22.6% rate, but Clevinger induces a good amount of swings-and-misses with a 12.1% mark. In all, this should be a great spot for him and worth the price of admission.
Other notable favorites: Walker Buehler ($10,200; -250) vs. Diamondbacks, Michael Wacha ($9,200; -190) vs. Orioles
Highest Projected Total
CWS (-143, 5.5 runs) vs. PIT (+120, 4.5 runs) 9.5 runs — This is a really interesting line to me. On the surface, Dylan Cease ($8,700) looks like he’s done well, but his 6.32 FIP is a red flag. Do I want to bet the over on the Pirates team total? Probably not, but they could make for a massive advantage in a large field GPP. As for the White Sox, they see Joe Musgrove ($6,000), who has bad numbers on the surface and ones that are justified. They’re coming off a four-game series against the Royals in which they averaged 7.7 runs per game, scoring no less than five in any of them. Between that and a Pirates bullpen that has thrown the fourth most innings over the last week, the White Sox are in a great spot.
Other notable team totals: Dodgers (5.5) vs. Diamondbacks, Padres (5.5) vs. Rockies
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Reds @ Cubs — Only game with some rain concern and it doesn’t look overly threatening, either. It’s worth a look before first pitch but this doesn’t seem as if it will postpone this game.
Splits to Start
Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Chi Chi Gonzalez, .384, 6.53
Adrian Houser, .374, 5.00
Alec Mills, .373, 6.06
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
John Means, .249, 3.12
Walker Buehler, .256, 2.77
Lance Lynn, .290, 3.23
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Michael Wacha, .386, 5.72
Logan Webb, .375, 4.36
Dylan Cease, .327, 4.58
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Mike Clevinger, .255, 2.29
Alec Mills, .257, 3.77
Adrian Houser, .263 3.50
Pitcher to Build Around
Walker Buehler, LAD at ARI, $10,200 — After a really tough start to the season, Buehler looks as if he’s back on track and faces the Diamondbacks for the second time in a row. In his previous start at Dodger Stadium, he threw five innings allowing no runs on two hits and struck out six, good for 21.5 DKFP. The D-Backs have not been a strong team against righties by any means and have just a .295 wOBA with a .149 ISO and a 22.2% strikeout rate. Despite being the most expensive pitcher, this should be another great spot for Buehler.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Corey Seager, LAD at ARI, $5,500 — Sticking with this game, this is such a great spot for the Dodgers lefties against Luke Weaver ($6,900). Opposite hand matchups have been trouble for Weaver, as lefties have tagged him with a .423 wOBA, a 6.70 FIP and for six of the eight home runs he’s allowed. As for Seager, he’s casually averaging 12.9 DKFP over his last 10 games while posting a .429 wOBA and a .327 ISO against righties on the road.
Save Big by Drafting
Victor Reyes, DET vs. MIL, $3,800 —Reyes continues to be a a force atop the Tigers’ lineup and he’ll look to continue his hot hitting against Adrian Houser ($8,000). Against lefties this season, Houser has a .434 wOBA with a 7.24 FIP and five of the six home runs he’s allowed. As for Reyes, all of his power has come against righties, sporting a .220 ISO (only .031 vs. lefties) and a .359 wOBA. Reyes is also a base stealing threat, as he has six on the year.
Favorite Team To Stack
NYM vs. BAL (vs. John Means) — We have a lot of teams to stack tonight, but I think the Mets should also be in the conversation. John Means ($6,500) has simply been awful in 2020 and sports a an 8.05 FIP, a 3.6 HR/9 and a 38% hard-hit rate. The Mets against lefties enter this game with a .355 wOBA and a .182 ISO.
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