We’re about to whittle it down to eight total players remaining at the US Open with the conclusion of the quarterfinals on Wednesday, meaning we’re packed with what’s sure to be close and competitive tennis all day. Russians Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev will battle in what’s sure to contend for match of the tournament and Serena Williams looks to move one step closer to a return to the top of the tennis world on the women’s side. With all that said, I’ve picked out the three bets I see the most value in on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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De Minaur +2.5 Sets (-143)
Dominic Thiem was masterful against Felix Auger-Aliassime but reading past the straight-set scoreline I think there are some tiny cracks in the Austrian’s game. Thiem was shaky early on in this one, failing to close out the first set (something we’ve seen from him before) with careless errors. He gifted FAA points when the Canadian was staring down the barrel of a double-break deficit and gave him the break-back at 5-4. After he got past trouble in the first, he cruised but the fact he was so easily put in an uncomfortable situation makes me question a few things.
Alex De Minaur’s entire game is putting his opponents in uncomfortable situations, pushing for breaks in nearly every game with his top-line speed and ability to work both sides of the court with pace. I think he’s going to back Thiem up behind the baseline and bring him in to the net, where he’s been superb the past couple of weeks. The 27-year-old should solve ADM but I think the Aussie picks up a set early on before Thiem takes care of business.
Andrey Rublev vs. Daniil Medvedev
Under 39.5 Games (-130)
Rublev is my favorite player in the men’s draw and I looked and looked for reasons to take him here. The sad thing is, there really is no way I can rationalize betting on him at all Wednesday. He’s never taken a set off Med in three meetings and all but one set (a 7-5 loss in their last match in St. Petersburg last year) have been one-way traffic. With a spot in the semis on the line, both of these guys are certainly going to bring their A-game but I don’t think Rublev’s will match up to Med’s. Rublev has been mighty impressive in his service games, but he hasn’t faced a returner like Medvedev yet in this tournament. Even if we get a four-setter, I could still see this going under. Med will make quick work of Rublev in a further effort to conserve energy for the semis and the final after running out of gas last year.
Mertens ML (+100)
We saw Azarenka struggle for the first time all tournament against a skilled baseliner in Muchova, running side to side and losing steam at times. She ultimately was able to battle back from a set down but I think fatigue plays a factor here against the uber-skilled Mertens, who has nearly matched Azarenka’s impeccable form. The only blemish on the German’s recent record is a loss to Naomi Osaka last week, who was simply overpowering.
Azarenka was forced to play a physical match against Muchova and should play an even more physical one against Mertens, which may end up breaking her. She is not as spry as she once was and has played a boatload of competitive tennis over the past two weeks. It’s bound to catch up to her.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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