Wednesday features a nine-game main DraftKings MLB slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. We have a massive pitching duel set in Chicago, as Yu Darvish ($11,500) faces Trevor Bauer ($10,900). Clayton Kershaw ($10,500) will face the Diamondbacks and Tommy Milone ($9,200) continues to be one of the most overpriced pitchers in history. Let’s get into it!
As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Clayton Kershaw, $10,500, LAD (-278) vs. ARI (+230) — Yeah, yeah yeah. Another Dodger that is the biggest favorite on the slate. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. The matchup is great for Kershaw against the Diamondbacks, as they are one of the worst offensive teams in the league against lefties. The .258 wOBA and .102 ISO are both the worst in the league against lefties while the 22.5% K% is 14th. With numbers like that, it doesn’t pose much of a threat to Kershaw, who has been so incredibly good this season, boasting a 3.27 FIP, a 30.6% K% and just a 4.5 BB%. The uptick in velocity on his fastball from last season has been highly talked about and has helped up his swing-and-miss rate to 13.2%. In all, this is such a great spot for Kershaw.
Other notable favorites: Zach Davies ($8,700; -190) vs. Rockies, Dane Dunning ($6,500; -175) vs. Pirates
Highest Projected Total
LAA (-125, 4.5 runs) vs. TEX (+107, 4.5 runs) 9.5 runs — I think this game certainly has the potential to be one of the higher scoring games on this slate. And no, it’s not just because of the total but the pitching matchup caught my eye even BEFORE I checked the total so please keep all snarky comments to yourself. Julio Teheran ($7,400) has been abysmal and it’s backed up by his 7.49 FIP. He’s allowed at least a home run in five of his six games while his strikeouts remain minimal. As for Kyle Cody ($5,400), he faces a very good hitting club against righties in the Angels, who have a .339 wOBA (6th), a .183 ISO (11th) and only a 21.1 K% (26th). With this in mind, it’s worth taking a look at this game for stacking purposes or even better purposes if you’re liking the over. As for me, I’d be grabbing the over 4.5 runs on the Angels’ side first.
Other notable team totals: White Sox (5.5) vs. Pirates, Dodgers (5.5) vs. Diamondbacks
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Splits to Start
Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Nick Margevicius, .424, 5.53
Jorge Lopez, .394, 5.80
Antonio Senzatela, .367, 5.57
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Clayton Kershaw, .257, 3.49
Zach Davies, .290, 5.56
Yu Darvish, .327, 4.20
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Tyler Anderson, .373, 5.32
Taylor Clarke, .343, 5.83
Rick Porcello, .341, 4.67
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Pablo Lopez, .255, 3.32
Yu Darvish, .259, 3.17
Clayton Kershaw, .275 3.78
Pitcher to Build Around
Yu Darvish, CHC vs. CIN, $11,500 — I hate to break it to you but Darvish is simply an automatic play until further notice. He’s simply pitching on a whole different level and it’s quite remarkable. This is someone who since giving up three runs in his first start of the season has allowed a total of five runs over the next 46 innings. Are you kidding me? His last time out against the Reds, they did tag him for seven hits but weren’t able to push any runs across and struck out eight times. So yeah, Darvish with his 2.02 FIP and 15.5% swing-and-miss rate is an automatic play.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Freddie Freeman, ATL vs. MIA, $5,600 — Going up against Pablo Lopez ($7,600) may not seem like a great idea because on the surface since he’s sporting some good numbers. While this is true, you want to get him away from Miami as that’s where the advantage comes in. On the road against lefties, Lopez has a .360 wOBA with a 4.29 FIP. This seems like a continuation from what happened in 2019, where his road numbers against lefties were also poor, evidenced by the .395 wOBA and 5.74 FIP in the same situation.
Save Big by Drafting
Joey Gallo, TEX at LAA, $3,800 —I’m willing to take a shot with Gallo in hopes we can grab a big fly from him off Teheran. Lefties has always been an issue for him and through six games, he has allowed a .443 wOBA and 9.08 FIP along with five of the seven home runs he’s given up. To be fair, Gallo hasn’t been great at the plate but he does have a 46% hard-hit rate and is hitting a ton of fly balls at 54.3%. It feels like it’s only a matter of time for Gallo.
Favorite Team To Stack
HOU vs. OAK (vs. Jesus Luzardo) — I’m a big fan of Luzardo but he’s having a tough stretch as of late. He’s allowed at least three runs in three of his last four starts. While his FIP is still at a very good 3.71, we have a very good hitting club against lefties on tap. The Astros are getting healthy again and the addition of Alex Bregman ($4,800) back in the mix is huge. Entering this game, they boast a .350 wOBA with a .213 ISO and a minuscule 18.1% K%.
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