We have 11 games for tonight’s MLB slate, beginning at 6:10 p.m. ET with the Indians vs. Royals. Here’s what stands out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook on Wednesday for baseball betting.
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Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals
On paper, the Indians should have a good offense against left-handed pitching. However, we are more than halfway through the season and this isn’t the case. Cleveland has a 72 wRC+ against lefties, which is the third worst in the league. The only teams worse against southpaws are the Rangers and Diamondbacks. The Indians also a face a decent lefty in Danny Duffy, so runs could be an issue.
On the Royals’ side of the game, their offense is bad, but predictably so. The Royals have an 84 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and nobody expected this would be a good offense. Carlos Carrasco shouldn’t have much issue shutting down the Kansas City bats. He is striking out a career-best 11.14 hitters per nine innings with a 3.43 ERA.
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
Tommy Milone’s first start with the Braves was a total disaster. Shortly after getting traded, Atlanta quickly pushed him onto the field for a primetime game against the Phillies. He ended up giving up seven runs in 2+ innings, so the Braves probably should have given him more time to get acclimated in hindsight. He bounced back and allowed just one run in his next start against the Nationals. Overall, Milone is having a good season, but that one outing is inflating his ERA a bit. Despite a 5.30 ERA, he is sporting a 4.20 FIP. Milone is pitching better than his ERA indicated and he’s allowed three or less runs in six of his eight starts this season. In a favorable matchup against the Marlins, I like his chances to put the Braves in a chance to win a closely lined game.
New York Mets vs. Baltimore Orioles
I wish I bet against Rick Porcello in all of his starts since he won the Cy Young award in 2016. I don’t think it’s possible for an award winner to age worse. Porcello is pretty easily the worst pitcher to win a Cy Young. He has an ERA over 5.20 in back-to-back seasons and is yet to have an ERA under 4.20 since winning the award. Porcello is a pitch to contact guy and he gives up a ton of hard hit balls. This is a bad combination and not one that I see him correcting. In addition, the Orioles’ offense isn’t nearly as bad as expected. They have a 108 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, yet the team is always priced in games as if they are one of the worst offenses in baseball.
Jorge Lopez is starting for Baltimore and it’s tough to imagine he will find much success. The veteran has a 5.59 ERA after putting up a 6.33 ERA for the Royals last year. Lopez has a 5.87 career ERA in the major leagues and has never had a full season with an ERA under 5.00. The Mets have one of the top offenses in baseball with a 126 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and shouldn’t have much issue doing damage tonight.
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
I get why the Reds are a significant underdog today. They are going up against Yu Darvish and few pitchers in baseball are better this season. He has a 1.44 ERA and often looks impossible to hit. However, the same can be said for Trevor Bauer, who is starting for Cincy. He has a 2.05 ERA and is probably third in the National League Cy Young race if we assume that Darvish and Jacob deGrom are the first two choices. It’s not that I expect the Reds to win today, but I don’t think the line should ever be this wide when Bauer is on the mound.
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