It’s the final week of the regular season. That was fast. Zoom.

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Game Notes

Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite

Indianapolis Colts (-1000; -14) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+700)

No one wants to even give the Jaguars are chance here, as the Colts are insane favorites in their final home game of the regular season. The Colts are 5-2 outright as home favorites but only 3-4 ATS. The Jaguars, of course, have the worst record in the league and are tied for the second-worst overall ATS at 6-9. The Jags have been double-digit underdogs four times this season and have covered in two of them. The last time came against the Ravens as 13-point dogs and Jacksonville was blown out 40-14. With this offense struggling to score, having failed to exceed 17 points in three-straight games, I struggle to find reasons to think they can cover. The Colts also have something to play for in this one, so they’ll be throwing out their full arsenal at the Jags.

Other notable favorites: Baltimore Ravens (-835; -13) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+600), Pittsburgh Steelers (+350) vs. Cleveland Browns (-420; -9.5)

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Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total

Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) vs. Detroit Lions: 53.5 points

This slate features a lot of lower than usual totals, as should be expected with teams resting starters. This one, however, is one of three games with an over/under set in the 50s. Both teams have been excellent at hitting the over, going a combined 19-11-0. The Vikings are one of four teams with double-digit games hitting the over at 10-5 while the Lions are right behind them at 9-6. Both sides will be missing key players with Dalvin Cook and Kenny Golladay sidelined but the total has stayed relatively the same after opening at 54.5. In Week 9, these two teams went over the 51.5 total, which was won by the Vikings.

Alexander Mattison ($6,100), who does not carry a game status designation, is set for a huge role with Cook out. The Lions continue to be one of the worst run defenses in the league, with opposing teams averaging over 115 rushing yards per game. In their Week 9 meeting, Mattison went for 69 yards on 12 carries. He hasn’t taken more than two carries in four straight games but we’ve seen what he can do with a full workload, rushing for 112 yards on 20 carries against the Seahawks in Week 5.

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DVP Matchups

Worst QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, 15, 1st
Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, 15.6, 2nd
Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, 17.6, 4th

Best QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, 25.5, 32nd
Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, 24.6, 31st
Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, 24.4, 30th

Worst RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, 18.6, 1st
Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, 18.7, 2nd
Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, 20.2, 4th

Best RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Tennessee Titans, Houston Texans, 33.7, 32nd
Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, 31.7, 31st
Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, 29.9, 30th

Worst WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, 29.6, 1st
Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills 32.5, 2nd
Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, 32.6, 3rd

Best WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, 46.1 32nd
Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, 45.3, 31st
Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, 45.2, 30th

Worst TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, 8.3, 1st
Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, 8.5, 2nd
New York Jets, New England Patriots, 9.7, 3rd

Best TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

New England Patriots, New York Jets, 18.4, 32nd
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, 15.9, 31st
Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, 15.5, T-29th

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Who is playing for something in Week 17?

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DraftKings Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans, $7,700 — Roster construction is going to be wild in Week 17, so make sure you’re prepared for that. Watson, who has nothing to play for except pride, can do his part to deny a playoff spot for the Titans. It’s likely he’ll play the entire game and it’s a great matchup for him against a very bad secondary. When they met back in Week 6, Watson threw for 335 yards and four touchdowns. His group of receivers isn’t nearly as strong now but it’s ironic to say he’s currently playing his best football of the season. The Titans simply can’t contain opposing QBs and the 23 DKFP they’ve allowed per game is the fifth-highest in the league. With a minimal pass rush to throw at Watson, he boasts a 82.7% adjusted completion percentage, which ranks 5th best in the league. In Week 6, the Titans only pressured Watson on 26% of his dropbacks whereas on average, he’s pressured on 37%.

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Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans, $6,900 — The Texans have mainly been getting the ball to Cooks and Keke Coutee ($5,600), but Cooks is my preferred option. He’s coming off a 10-target game, marking the second time he’s reached double-digits. Against this putrid secondary, he should feast like he did back in Week 6. While his yardage wasn’t huge with 68, he did catch all nine of his targets en route to 21.8 fantasy points. In coverage, he should draw CB Malcolm Butler, who is allowing an average of 12.1 YPR on 68 catches and has been scored against four times.

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Top Running Back To Consider

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans, $9,400 — I do like stacking this game a lot as it has big implications for both the playoffs and personal stats. Henry is 223 yards shy of reaching 2,000 rushing yards and no one would be surprised if they tried to get him there. The matchup is a perfect one for him to try to make it, as he already torched the Texans for 212 yards on 22 carries in Week 6. If they’re going to try and get Henry this milestone, he certainly will be in this game, even if the Titans have a comfortable lead. With so many potential landmines in Week 17, Henry at this high salary is still a play I’m extremely interested in.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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