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Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 17

Steve Buchanan gives his top studs and values at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate, which locks at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Week 17 is going to be weird and you’ll make weird lineups. So let’s give some weird targets. @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football Millionaire lineups here: NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]


Quarterback

Stud

Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans, $7,700 — Roster construction is going to be wild in Week 17, so make sure you’re prepared for that. Watson, who has nothing to play for except pride, can do his part to deny a playoff spot for the Titans. It’s likely he’ll play the entire game and it’s a great matchup for him against a very bad secondary. When they met back in Week 6, Watson threw for 335 yards and four touchdowns. His group of receivers isn’t nearly as strong now but it’s ironic to say he’s currently playing his best football of the season. The Titans simply can’t contain opposing QBs and the 23 DKFP they’ve allowed per game is the fifth-highest in the league. With a minimal pass rush to throw at Watson, he boasts an 82.7% adjusted completion percentage, which ranks fifth-best in the league. In Week 6, the Titans only pressured Watson on 26% of his dropbacks whereas on average, he’s pressured on 37%.

Other Option – Lamar Jackson ($8,000)

Value

Philip Rivers, Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars, $6,000 — Rivers is a candidate to be pulled if the Colts are handling the Jaguars, which is expected when you see they’re -14 favorites on the DraftKings Sportsbook. With that in mind, if Rivers is being pulled, there is a good chance we got what we needed out of him already. In his Colts debut, Rivers threw for 363 yards and a touchdown against this secondary for 19.82 DKFP. He was the same salary back then as he is for this one. The Jags already have the No. 1 overall pick locked up and will barely be fielding a competitive team this week. For as much as people don’t like playing Rivers, he’s been so consistent and should easily rack up fantasy points here.

Other Option – Matt Ryan ($5,900)


Running Back

Stud

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans, $9,400 — I do like stacking this game a lot as it has big implications for both the playoffs and personal stats. Henry is 223 yards shy of reaching 2,000 rushing yards and no one would be surprised if they tried to get him there. The matchup is a perfect one for him to try to make it, as he already torched the Texans for 212 yards on 22 carries in Week 6. If they’re going to try and get Henry this milestone, he certainly will be in this game, even if the Titans have a comfortable lead. With so many potential landmines in Week 17, Henry at this high salary is still a play I’m extremely interested in.

Other Options – David Montgomery ($7,700), J.K. Dobbins ($6,700)

Value

Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals, $4,900 – I will continue to roll out Edwards while he remains cheap. He and J.K Dobbins ($6,700) continue to be neck and neck with the total touches, with Edwards gaining the upper hand last week at 28.2%. This huge difference in salary gives us a great edge for a back averaging 13.5% of the touches and 21.1% of the red-zone carries. In a favorable game script and matchup against a soft Bengals defense, this is a great opportunity to get on Edwards at a cheap salary.

Other Options – Melvin Gordon ($5,700)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $8,500 — Ridley is another stud you should feel comfortable paying up for as he’ll once again be the WR1 with no Julio Jones. We had this same matchup take place two weeks ago which lead to Ridley drawing 14 targets in which he made 10 catches for 163 yards, a touchdown and 35.3 DKFP. Ridley carved up CB Sean Murphy-Bunting specifically, catching all four targets against him for 80 yards and the touchdown. Murphy-Bunting continues to be one of the worst corners in the league giving up the sixth-most yards (759) and second-most after the catch (357). Oh, just a reminder: Without Jones, Ridley averages 30% of the Falcons’ targets.

Other Options – Davante Adams ($9,200), Brandin Cooks ($6,900)

Value

Tim Patrick, Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders, $4,000 – It’s been a quiet couple of weeks for Patrick but he hasn’t exactly had a soft schedule over that span. Now his matchup turns into a fluffy cumulonimbus cloud for Week 17 against the Raiders. Their pass defense has been in shambles and should open it back up for Patrick. He’s averaging 17.7% of the team targets overall and in the red zone, both of which rank third on the team. In coverage, he’ll draw CB Damon Arnette, who has been targeted against 31 times allowing 26 receptions, 15.6 YPR and has been scored on once.

Other Options – Mecole Hardman ($4,200), Michael Gallup ($5,000)


Tight End

Stud

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, $5,000 – We have the Packers vying for the No. 1 seed and Aaron Rodgers ($7,400) chasing an MVP award. So why wouldn’t we want a tight end who has five red-zone targets and 15 overall targets in the past four games? While it’s hard to not just roster Davante Adams ($9,200) and call it a day, Tonyan has carved out quite the role in this offense as well. It’s worth noting that Adams is three touchdowns away from reaching 20 so we potentially have to combat that narrative. With that said, the Bears are one of the most generous teams against tight ends and allowed Tonyan to post a 5/55/1 line in Week 12.

Other Options – Jared Cook ($4,700)

Value

Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers $3,700 – The price on Hurst is rising a bit but at $3,700, he’s still very affordable for the increased targets he’s getting. Logging 10 over the past two weeks, Hurst has quietly become a much more viable play to roster, especially in the absence of Jones. He’s third in the pecking order when it comes to team target share in the red zone, averaging 19.1%, but he has at least one in eight straight games.

Other Options – Stephen Anderson ($2,600)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Los Angeles Rams, D/ST vs. Arizona Cardinals $3,300 – Admittedly, this is more of a hunch play than anything. In a must-win situation for the Rams, who are down at least their quarterback and top receiver with the potential of their running back, how could you beat the Cardinals? On defense. The Rams do have one of the best pass rushes in the league and could attempt to keep Kyler Murray ($7,500) under plenty of pressure. It hasn’t been easy to do, as he only has been on 26% of his dropbacks. The Rams sacked him twice in Week 13 and had him under pressure on 27% of his dropbacks while blitzing him 12 times. They’ll have to do a whole boatload more than that in Week 17 if they want to continue playing football.

Other Option – Indianapolis Colts ($3,900)

Value

Cleveland Browns D/ST at Pittsburgh Steelers, $2,500 – The Browns are simply way too cheap for going up against the backup Mason Rudolph ($4,300). He’s not a great quarterback with a clean pocket to begin with, so throw some bodies in his face and he crumbles even more. Last season when Rudolph was playing he was under pressure on 36% of his dropbacks, was dropped 15 times and had a 62.5% adjusted completion percentage. With most of the Steelers starters sitting in this one and the Browns needing a win, this is a very cheap play to use.

Other Option – Los Angeles Chargers ($2,800)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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