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Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for Raptors vs. Trail Blazers Showdown on January 11

Stan Son gives his top NBA lineup advice for Monday’s fantasy basketball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Raptors and Trail Blazers, which starts at 10 p.m. ET.

Minnesota Timberwolves v Portland Trail Blazers Photo by Cameron Browne/NBAE via Getty Images

The Raptors lost to the Warriors last night and will now be playing their first back-to-back of the season. The Trail Blazers demolished the Kings on Saturday and should be well-rested for this one. The Raptors are eighth in offensive pace and 18th in defensive efficiency while the Trail Blazers are seventh in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Trail Blazers as 5-point favorites with the O/U a healthy 230.5.

Let’s break down everything to play a few Showdown lineups.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $100K Fadeaway [$25K to 1st] (TOR vs POR)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Damian Lillard ($15,900 CP) - I thought about going with CJ McCollum ($14,700 CP) because of the price discount of $1,200 and the facts that he’s had a higher usage rate, has been shooting more and has accessed the same DK ceiling as Lillard to start the season. Even as I wrote the above sentence, should I or shouldn’t I?

I’m going with Lillard for a variety of reasons, however. For starters, McCollum has been shooting an uber-efficient 50% from the field over the past three games. He’s a career 45% shooter from the field and he gets a matchup against Fred VanVleet, who is an excellent defender. In terms of fantasy points per minute, the Raptors provide a boost of 0.77% to opposing shooting guards, but zooming in closer, they negate 2-pointers and 3-pointers by 11.47% and 13.93% respectively. McCollum primarily derives much of his fantasy production from scoring.

Lillard also scores, as he’s averaging 26.4 points per game on the season, but he’s grabbing 4.7 rebounds and dishing out 6.6 assists per game. He only put up 33.5 DKFP last outing but that was because the Trail Blazers blew out the Kings and he only played 29 minutes. In the prior game, Lillard earned a season-high 67.25 DKFP.

Kyle Lowry ($13,800 CP) - On the season, Lowry is averaging 1.08 DKFP per minute, which is fourth on the team behind Chris Boucher (1.39), VanVleet (1.18) and Pascal Siakam (1.11) but he averages the most minutes per game at 36.5.

He now gets a juicy matchup against Lillard and the Trail Blazers, who are boosting the fantasy points per minute to point guards by 12.2%. In two meetings last season, Lowry went for 24 points, four rebounds, 10 assists and one block in one while contributing 19 points, seven boards, 10 assists, one steal and two blocks in the other.


FLEX Plays

Alex Len ($1,800) - Oh boy. I’m about to get fired, aren’t I? After getting a start two games ago, a game in which he only ended up playing four minutes, Len was a DNP-CD on Sunday. Before you throw internet tomatoes at my head, hear me out. Nick Nurse has been going with a small-ball lineup recently, as the Kings and Warriors do not have punishing low-post scorers. The Trail Blazers, on the other hand, have Jusuf Nurkic, who is a load down low. I think one of Aron Baynes or Len starts and plays at least 20 minutes in this game to deal with Nurkic. Baynes fell out of favor with Nurse for some reason and was a DNP-CD the past two games. Maybe Nurse returns to the well, but I’ll side with Len here. Yuck, but he’s only $1,800.

Carmelo Anthony ($4,800) - Anthony is only averaging 23 minutes per game and 0.84 DKFP per minute but he gets up close to 10 shots in that time and grabs rebounds as well. The price may be a little elevated for the 18.65 DKFP per game average but he does have a high of 28.25 DKFP in a game and has gone over 20 DKFP four times.

Enes Kanter ($6,000) - Kanter is averaging 1.27 DKFP per minute and 23.71 DKFP per game! He’s averaging 9.7 rebounds in 19.5 minutes per game on the season. More recently, the playing time has come down to around 16 minutes per game, as Nurkic is getting into shape, but the rebound numbers have gone up to 10.7. Kanter does have a ceiling game of 44 DKFP this season when he went for 24 points and 12 rebounds against the Warriors. Now, as Nurkic gets up to speed, Kanter’s playing time will come down but I don’t think we are at the point where Nurkic plays over 30 minutes per game just yet. So, Kanter should see some time and gets a potentially nice matchup. The Raptors provide a rebounding boost of 4.93% to opposing centers and there’s a chance he gets matched up with Boucher down low.


Fades

Chris Boucher ($7,200) - I love Boucher as he’s a per-minute monster who can do everything on the court. Unfortunately, he’s rail-thin and can’t hold up to bruising big men down low. The two games in which he’s received fewer than 20 minutes this season have been against Joel Embiid and Deandre Ayton. He did play 28 minutes against Steven Adams but, while he’s a load down low, he isn’t an offensive force. The Trail Blazers have Nurkic and Kanter, both of who can punish lighter, smaller defenders down low. This ties into my Len and Baynes suggestions above. I think Nurse has to either go big or super small in this matchup. I lean toward big, which would crimp the playing time for Boucher.


THE OUTCOME

Since I think the Trail Blazers go big here, the pace could come down a smidgen. The Trail Blazers are also well-rested while the Raptors just played last night. Give me the Trail Blazers in a decisive victory.

Final Score: Portland 115, Toronto 102

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $100K Fadeaway [$25K to 1st] (TOR vs POR)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.


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