Teams who won during Wild Card Weekend will play this week. That’s how a tournament works, you advance. Also, teams who had a bye play as well.
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Game Notes
Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Favorite
Kansas City Chiefs (-9; +350) vs. Cleveland Browns (+350)
The biggest spread belongs to the Chiefs, who had the benefit of the Wild Card Weekend bye and will be playing at home. However, this is also a team that has not been friendly to folks taking them to cover. Against the spread, they ended the regular season with an overall 7-9 record and 3-4 as home favorites. Amazingly, this is the same team that through the first eight weeks were 6-2 ATS and covered a -20 spread against the Jets. From that point on, they were a backer’s nightmare. After that Week 8 cover against the spread, the Chiefs would go 1-7 ATS the rest of the season. The only game they covered was the -2.5 spread against the Saints, so if you bet that one, congrats. The Chiefs have simply let opposing teams hang around during the second half and it’s a legitimate worry when taking them at such a large number. Since the win over the Jets, the Chiefs only lost one game (Week 17 with the starters sitting) and in those games, won by an average of 3.8 points.
Personally, I think this is a dangerous spot on the spread on either side. The Browns are a team you can easily throw against so this is a great spot for Patrick Mahomes ($8,000). With that said, I think the Chiefs being teased down to -3 is much more enticing and pairing that with Ravens at +9 (wowie!) is one of my favorite teaser options on this slate.
Other notable favorites: Green Bay Packers (-6.5; -315) vs. Los Angeles Rams (+270)
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Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total
Kansas City Chiefs (33.5 points) vs. Cleveland Browns (23.5 points): 57 points
A massive total for this game that continues to trend up, even hitting 58 during the week. Originally opening at 55.5, we may have lost the value in taking the over by now. The Browns were one of the better teams hitting the over at at 10-7 but the Chiefs were just 8-8, which is incredible when you think of how good this offense is. At their current point totals, the Browns have hit at least 24 points seven times while the Chiefs have gone over 33.5 only five times.
As it currently stands, I wouldn’t be comfortable taking the over at 57. I have no doubt points will be scored in this game but we’re talking needing 58 to win this bet (no one wants a push). The Browns will run the ball as long as they’re not getting blown out but we don’t want this game slowed down. The Chiefs are simply not getting production out of the backfield but will potentially be getting Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,500) back for this one. With that said, we know Mahomes is going to throw and should have plenty of success against what is arguably the worst secondary remaining in the playoffs. Again, you can tease this total down to 51 points, which is a much more enticing number.
DVP Matchups
Worst QB Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed
Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, 15.1
Los Angeles Rams, Green Bay Packers, 17.2
Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, 17.7
Best QB Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed
Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns 22.6
Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs, 21.8
Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, 21.1
Worst RB Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, 17.2
Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, 19.6
New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 20.3
Best RB Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed
Los Angeles Rams, Green Bay Packers, 27.6
Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs, 25
Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, 24.5
Worst WR Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed
Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams 29.2
Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs, 32.5
Los Angeles Rams, Green Bay Packers, 32.9
Best WR Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed
Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns, 44
New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 40.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, 36.4
Worst TE Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed
Los Angeles Rams, Green Bay Packers, 8.1
Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, 11.1
Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, 12.1
Best TE Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed
Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, 16.1
Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns, 15.3
Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs, 14.7
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DraftKings Lineup Starters
Quarterback to build around
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $5,600 — I know, I know, just hear me out first, ok? This slate is loaded with quarterbacks with MUCH more appeal, which is mostly the point. Why WOULD you take Brees? Well, taking him and Michael Thomas ($6,700) is only going to take up 24% of your salary cap. That is REALLY cheap for a legitimate QB/WR1 stack. To compare, Patrick Mahomes ($8,000) and Tyreek Hill ($8,000) is 32%. Aaron Rodgers ($6,900) and Davante Adams ($8,600) is 31%. So locking in this stack really opens up your construction while also not skimping out on the production.
This Buccaneers secondary is simply falling apart. I mean, they just allowed 212 receiving yards to the Washington Football Team’s receivers against the backup’s backup (?) quarterback. Don’t get me wrong, Brees is not going to be dropping and heaving it 40+ yards but since his return, he’s averaging 252 passing yards while completing no less than 68.8% and an average of 8.0 yards per attempt. This is a matchup where I think he can finish right in that 18-21 DKFP range, which would be exactly what we need at this salary.
Wide Receiver To Pair Him With
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $6,700 — He’s the fourth-most expensive receiver on this slate but for his talent, this is hardly a tough salary to lock in. In his long awaited return, Thomas accounted for seven targets in which he made five catches for 73 yards and a touchdown. In coverage, Thomas should draw CB Carlton Davis, which is a matchup I want to capitalize on. Davis has targeted against 103 times, allowing a 61.2% catch-rate for an average of 14 YPR and has been scored on five times. In his return to action last week, he allowed six receptions on 10 targets for an average of 15.3 YPR and 92 total yards. Specifically, both Cam Sims and Terry McLaurin averaged 17 YPR on five receptions against him in coverage. Now he has to deal with Thomas? Best of luck.
Top Running Back To Consider
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers, $5,700 — This is a perfect storm for Akers, who should once again carry a heavy workload for the Rams. Jared Goff ($5,200) is getting the start and is still in the process of healing from thumb surgery. Now he has to be in a freezing cold environment with his throwing hand at less than 100%. The Packers were one of the most generous run defenses in the league and it’s a matchup the Rams would be stupid not to exploit. Akers handled 28 carries against the Seahawks and went for 131 yards (4.6 YPC; 3.46 yards after contact per attempt) and a touchdown. The Rams are +6.5 dogs in this one so it runs the risk of being scripted out but they should be looking to keep Rodgers off the field for as long as possible. At $5,700, Akers could be a steal.
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