For this week, we have a matchup between the Los Angeles Rams (10-6) and the Green Bay Packers (13-3). DraftKings Sportsbook has the Packers favored by 6.5 points with the over/under at 45.5 points. The Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning record, while the Rams are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games.
Can the Rams travel to a windy and frigid Lambeau Field and topple the favored Packers? Let’s dig in from a DraftKings Showdown perspective and find out.
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Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Cam Akers ($15,000 CP) - If Aaron Rodgers goes nuts, then this pick is toast, as Akers doesn’t contribute much in the passing and is game-script dependent. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Packers favored by 6.5 points, so it’s unnerving to write up Akers. Hear me out, though.
The Rams have an excellent defense. Aaron Donald, a huge cog is injured but is expected to play. His status complicates things for sure but the Packers lost their starting tackle in David Bakhtiari, so maybe that’s a wash. The unit is ranked 3rd in rush defense DVOA and 4th against the pass. No team has thrown for more than 275 yards in a game against them and they’ve held nine teams under 200 yards, with two under 100. The last six opponents have all thrown for under 200 yards. Rodgers is playing at an MVP level this season but the Buccaneers held him to 160 yards passing back in Week 6.
Let’s get to Akers now. Since Week 13, he has garnered the majority of snaps, at least 60% in each game he was healthy. Over that span, he’s received at least 20 carries in four of five games. Here are the red zone opportunities he’s had: 6, 3, 5, and 9.
The Packers’ defense is weak against the run. The unit is 19th in rush defense DVOA and 13th in yards allowed per carry. They’ve given up the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs and 10th-most red zone goal-to-go carries.
Davante Adams ($17,400 CP) - Jalen Ramsey is an amazing cornerback but Rodgers is going to feed him. He’s targeted Adams at least 10 times this season, with a high of 17. Plus, Adams moves all around the formation, running about a third of his routes from left, right, and slot. According to Next Gen Stats, Ramsey defended receivers in the slot just 16.3 percent of the time.
The other two Rams cornerbacks, Darious Williams and Troy Hill, are both very good so they should be able to neutralize Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard. It should also be tough to establish a run game against the Rams, so one plus one equals Adams.
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FLEX Plays
Robert Woods ($8,600) - The Packers are one of the best teams at limiting downfield plays, as they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest passes of 20+ yards and have an average depth of target against of 7.7 yards, tied for fifth-best. That’s right in the wheelhouse of Woods, who has a 6.9 aDOT this season.
Woods also leads the Rams in snap count and has been on the field a little more than Cooper Kupp due to the proliferation of more 12 personnel packages. Over the past five weeks, the Rams have utilized 12 personnel 42% of the time, third-most. Prior to that, they were at 27% usage.
Finally, Woods has rushing equity as he’s carried the ball 24 times for 155 yards and two touchdowns this season.
Robert Tonyan ($6,400) - I’m not particularly enamored with this play, especially considering the cost. He’s received 59 targets on the season with a high of seven in a game. That happened in Week 8. Since then, he hasn’t received over five targets in any game and has gone two straight with only two. With that said, I hate the other wide receivers and running backs more for the Packers.
The Rams are decent against tight ends, giving up the ninth-fewest fantasy points to the position. The matchup is more forgiving than against their cornerbacks, though. Kenny Young is the primary defender against tight ends and he’s rated 38.2 by PFF.
It’s all about touchdowns for Tonyan, as he has 11 on the season. He is also second behind Davante Adams for red-zone looks among receivers.
As I said, I’m not crazy about Tonyan but he has touchdown equity and a decent matchup.
Fades
Jared Goff ($9,400) - Goff is dealing with a thumb injury and hasn’t surpassed 240 yards in any of the past four games. The way McVay is going to want to call this game is to run left, run right, jet sweep to Woods, and mix in some play-action from time to time. He also provides no rushing equity.
Now, it’s well within the range of outcomes that the Rams have to chase points here, forcing Goff to throw a bunch. He could post good numbers based on volume alone, but I’m inclined to think that he would struggle if the Rams’ offense becomes one-dimensional.
THE OUTCOME
The 6.5 point spread seems awfully high to me. Is the injury to Aaron Donald more severe than reported? I like the Rams’ defense to neutralize the Packers here and for the offense to impose their will in the run game.
Final Score: Rams 20, Packers 17
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