Welcome back, everyone. For Saturday night, we get a four-game main slate to attack, barring any postponements, and DraftKings continues to offer huge tournaments for DFS players, and below are some of my favorite targets at each position.
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers vs. Atlanta Hawks, $9,200
Tonight, the Blazers and Hawks will compete in a large O/U game total of 235.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Lillard was a huge letdown in his last start (36 DKFP vs. Pacers), but he should get back on track tonight in this projected shootout against Trae Young ($8,900) and company. The last time Lillard found himself competing in an O/U game total above 235 points was just this past Wednesday, when the All-Star exploded for a 71.25 DKFP against the Kings. Overall, when Lillard has suited up for a game total of 225 points or more over the past two seasons, the 30-year-old has produced 54 DKFP per game.
As a group, the Hawks have vastly improved defensively, ranking 11th in efficiency after falling to 27th a year ago, but they still have Young as their point guard. Of 95 eligible point guards last season, Young ranked dead last in real defensive plus-minus and Lillard is averaging 52.25 DKFP per game in his past two meetings with the Hawks’ guard. I am fully expecting a bounce-back performance of at least 50 DKFP tonight from Lillard, and he is my top overall play on the slate.
Other Options: Trae Young ($8,900), LaMelo Ball ($7,900, better if Gordon Hayward is out)
Goran Dragic, Miami Heat vs. Detroit Pistons, $5,700
Dragic has sat out the past two games due to the NBA’s health protocols but has a good chance of returning tonight after being listed as questionable on Friday. With Jimmy Butler (health protocols) already ruled out, Dragic should return to an increased role for this Heat team that has dropped two straight. If we exclude the insane 47 point blowout loss to the Bucks on Dec. 30, Dragic has played in one game sans Butler this season, and he was awesome in that contest, tallying 35.25 DKFP in 27 minutes off the bench.
Additionally, in the 11 full games Butler sat out last season, Dragic contributed an average of 31 DKFP, and he has seen a team-high 3.4% usage bump without the all-star in 2020-21. The Pistons are currently giving up the seventh-most DKFP per game to opposing point guards this season and if Dragic is active, the savvy veteran should return over five-times value Saturday night.
Other Options: Tyrese Maxey ($5,100)
Terry Rozier, Charlotte Hornets vs. Toronto Raptors, $6,600
This will be the second straight game that the Hornets and Raptors have matched up, and even though the end result was a loss, Rozier shined with 39.75 DKFP against this club on Thursday night. With Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol both departing this past offseason, the Raptors’ defense has been a very soft unit, ranking 22nd efficiency. Opposing point guards are currently scoring the eighth-most DKFP per game in the league against them and Gordon Hayward ($7,800; questionable, hip) could miss his second straight game, which would keep Rozier in an elevated role.
The guard’s assist rate has seen a 5.4% boost without Hayward this season. All in all, Rozier is an outstanding GPP target that could enter cash-game consideration if Hayward is ruled out.
Other Options: CJ McCollum ($8,300), Fred VanVleet ($8,000)
Cam Reddish, Atlanta Hawks vs. Portland Trail Blazers, $4,600
Reddish is currently starting with Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) out, and this is an outstanding spot for him vs. the Blazers. Last night against the Jazz, Reddish scored 28.75 DKFP in 28 minutes of work as a starter and the Blazers currently rank as the fifth-worst defense in the NBA. Plus, this is a large pace increase for the Hawks with Portland playing at the ninth-fastest speed, compared to Atlanta who is 17th.
Reddish’s skill set is ideal for up-tempo settings and he is a solid cheap way to gain more exposure to this high total.
Other Options: Shake Milton ($5,200)
Tobias Harris, Philadelphia 76ers vs. Memphis Grizzlies, $7,500
Harris should see an expanded role tonight with Joel Embiid (knee) and Seth Curry (health protocols) sidelined. When these two starters have been off the floor this season, Harris’ usage has risen 2.7% and his assist rate has leaped 8.6%, resulting in a team-best 1.35 DKFP per minute.
His matchup vs. the Grizzlies isn’t rating well, with the club ranking fourth in defensive efficiency, but Harris should still be able to outproduce his current salary. Including his results from last season, the 28-year-old is averaging 36.5 DKFP per game in his past 22 without Embiid.
Other Options: Ben Simmons ($8,400), Jerami Grant ($7,400)
Caleb Martin, Charlotte Hornets vs. Toronto Raptors, $3,500
If Hayward does indeed sit out again, Martin will be a viable punt play to utilize as his replacement starter. The 25-year-old drew the spot start in Hayward’s place Thursday night and recorded 23 DKFP in 24 minutes. This score could have easily been much higher, considering that Martin only hit 1-of-7 shots from the field, and if he finds himself in this position again, he should have zero issues surpassing his value threshold against this Raptors defense.
Believe it or not, 11 games into their season, Toronto is allowing the most DKFP per game to opposing power forwards. If we compare this to all positions, a power forward going against the Raptors is the second-best matchup in basketball for fantasy purposes.
Chris Boucher, Toronto Raptors vs. Charlotte Hornets, $6,900
Boucher has been playing as the Raptors’ primary center and it has resulted in some huge numbers for the 28-year-old. He has yet to start, but that hasn’t mattered with Boucher receiving 28.7 minutes per game in the Raptors’ past four, helping him to 43.75 DKFP per game. The Canadian big man has been a fantasy player’s dream over this time span.
Boucher is generating a tremendous 1.5 DKFP per minute so far in 2020-21 and is now providing 44.3 DKFP per game when he has cracked 25 minutes during his NBA career. He just faced this same Hornets defense on Thursday night and in 29.3 minutes, Boucher exposed them for 48.5 DKFP. His price has only increased $400 since and the freak athlete is an extremely tough fade for this small four-game slate.
Other Options: Pascal Siakam ($8,500), Kelly Olynyk ($6,100, if Bam Adebayo is out)
Andre Iguodala, Miami Heat vs. Detroit Pistons, $3,800
Iguodala should log above 20 minutes with Butler absent and potentially more if any other Heat players are forced to sit. In addition to Butler, Meyers Leonard (shoulder) and Avery Bradley (health protocols) have been ruled out, and their injury report lists Dragic (health protocols), Tyler Herro ($7,200; neck), Bam Adebayo ($8,600; health protocols), Gabe Vincent ($5,000; knee), Moe Harkless ($3,000; health protocols), Kendrick Nunn ($3,000; health protocols), KZ Okpala ($3,000; health protocols) and Udonis Haslem ($3,000; health protocols) as questionable.
Iguodala has seen over 20 minutes in five of his nine games this season and is amassing a solid 17.2 DKFP per game on those occasions. By no means is he an exciting play, but 20 DKFP isn’t out of the question for the veteran against this horrible Pistons’ team.
Other Options: Solomon Hill ($3,600), Derrick Jones Jr. ($3,600)
Enes Kanter, Portland Trail Blazers vs. Atlanta Hawks, $5,300
Jusuf Nurkic (wrist) is expected to miss the next eight weeks and Kanter will take over as the Blazers’ starting center. The always-productive big man has provided 1.3 DKFP per minute this season, and this isn’t a new scenario for him in Portland. When he was a member of the team two years ago, they were without Nurkic due to a broken leg and Kanter had to start on numerous occasions, particularly in the playoffs.
He started for the Blazers 17 times during their 2019 playoff run and scored 27.2 DKFP per game, including seven showings of over 30 DKFP. We have seen him take full advantage of extra playing time again this season, with Kanter averaging 31 DKFP in the four games he has exceeded the 20-minute mark. DraftKings was quick to adjust his salary for life without Nurkic, but Kanter is still rating as a solid point-per-dollar value that brings excellent upside in this elite game setting vs. the Hawks.
Other Options: Bam Adebayo ($8,600, if active), Jonas Valanciunas ($7,000), Clint Capela ($6,700)
Dwight Howard, Philadelphia 76ers vs. Memphis Grizzlies, $4,300
Howard should get the starting nod tonight in place of Embiid. The last time the star center was inactive, Howard posted a double-double of 27.75 DKFP in 24 minutes as the Sixers’ starting center vs. the Nuggets. This is the best fantasy outing the 35-year-old has had this season and despite his age, Howard has remained productive with 1.1 DKFP per minute in 2020-21.
His size will be needed for a minimum of 25 minutes tonight, going against Jonas Valanciunas ($7,000) and the Grizzlies, who prefer to have a true center on the floor at all times. Barring foul trouble, Howard should score over 25 DKFP tonight and is a fine play for all formats.
Other Options: Gorgui Dieng ($4,400), Harry Giles III ($3,200)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.