DraftKings Sportsbook Plays
Here we have two teams who allowed four-plus goals in their last game and both ranked in the top 12 last year in terms of scoring chances allowed. Thirteen of the 19 games so far in 2021 have seen seven or more goals scored, so the over here looks great.
The Wild continue to be undervalued in my eyes against a Kings team who could easily challenge for a bottom-five spot in the league again. The Wild are already getting more balanced scoring from the addition of Kirill Kaprizov ($4,200) and outscored the Kings 3-0 in the final two periods of their last game.
Top Line Stacks
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Anaheim Ducks
Chandler Stephenson ($3,900) – Mark Stone ($7,000) – Max Pacioretty ($7,300)
The Golden Knights are one of the biggest favorites on the main slate here at -235 and face a Ducks team which really didn’t do much to improve on what was a dreadful squad last year. Anaheim ranked sixth in PP goals allowed and third in scoring chances allowed. The Knights’ power play really came on toward the end of last year and ranked ninth overall in the league in efficiency for 2019-2020. By paying up, you get two big pieces of Vegas’ PP1 here with Stone and Pacioretty, who each have legit slate-breaking upside, and a cheap center who will play a ton between them at even strength.
Calgary Flames vs. Vancouver Canucks
Elias Lindholm ($5,600) – Matthew Tkachuk ($6,000) – Dillon Dube ($3,400)
I mentioned the potential for this game at the top and it flows down to the DFS side of things too. Vancouver is an excellent opponent for opposing top lines as they allowed the sixth-most scoring chances in 2019-2020, had a middling penalty-kill and some mediocre goaltending. Lindholm was a near point per game player in 2018-2019 and scored 29 goals in 70 games last year, so he looks quite undervalued here at under $6K, as does his linemate Tkachuk, who led the Flames in SOG and their forwards in TOI in their first game.
Superstar to Target
Kevin Fiala, Minnesota Wild at Los Angeles Kings ($6,600)
Fiala was a DFS darling toward the end of the 2019-2020 season as he upped his SOG rate and goal scoring rate significantly, becoming the focal point of the Wild’s offense. Now with more skill to play alongside him on the PP, Fiala could be on the verge of challenging for career highs and looks underpriced here against one of the weakest teams in the league. Fiala fired off seven SOG in the opener against the Kings, playing over seven minutes on the power play. It didn’t lead to any goals, but given how the Wild dominated the Kings in the last 25 minutes of the game, I’d expect Fiala and the Wild’s offense to come out strong here. Target the player on the rise here in a great matchup.
Value on Offense
Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota Wild at Los Angeles Kings ($4,200)
While he’s not yet playing on the same line as Fiala, the Wild’s new rookie and hero in the opener, Kaprizov still correlates pretty well with the Wild’s top winger. They both play on the team’s PP1 unit and spent over six minutes on the ice together in the first game of their two-game set with the Kings. Kaprizov is pretty much an automatic target at these prices right now considering he played over 20 minutes in his debut, is super skilled and appears entrenched in a top-six role for Minnesota.
Nils Hoglander, Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames ($3,600)
Hoglander has been the beneficiary of the Canucks losing JT Miller to COVID-19 for a couple of weeks to start the year. He’s playing a top-line role for them at the moment and saw 21 minutes of ice for them in the team’s last game, including over seven minutes on the PP. The matchup here is fine, too, as the Flames allowed the eighth-most SOG last year and the 12th-most scoring chances.
Juuse Saros, Nashville Predators vs. Columbus Blue Jackets ($7,800)
We may have a changing of the guard moment here for the Predators, as Saros took the opening start for Nashville and stood on his head, stopping 29 of 30 shots for the win. We don’t have confirmation on who is starting yet for Nashville, but with the Preds sitting at -122 favorites, and going up against a Columbus team that does get a lot of rubber on net (eighth in SOG per game last year), the Nashville starter has good upside in this spot and Saros is available at a decent price.
Jacob Markstrom, Calgary Flames vs. Vancouver Canucks ($7,900)
ALERT! We have a revenge narrative! Markstrom started poorly for the Canucks, allowing four goals on 28 shots in his first outing, a loss to the Jets. He is taking on his old squad tonight, though, in the Canucks, who averaged 37.5 SOG in their first two games with the Oilers. It’s a high-upside opponent and Markstrom has proven in the past (as a part of some bad Canucks teams) that he can produce big fantasy games in these spots.
Value on Defense
Alex Romanov, Montreal Canadiens at Edmonton Oilers ($3,300)
Romanov looked like a great addition to the Canadiens’ defense in the opener, playing over 21 minutes and also rotating in on their power play, seeing 2:58 minutes of PP time. That kind of usage is near impossible to find for a defenseman priced well under $3,500 and Romanov has proven skill in this kind of role-playing in the KHL and in juniors. He landed three SOG, four blocks and an assist in his first game, and, at this price, you’ll take even half of what he accomplished in the opener on most nights. Romanov’s the top value on defense any night he’s playing until his role changes or his price goes up dramatically, and the matchup here against the Oilers (who are allowing 37.5 SOG per game thus far) is fantastic.
Tyson Barrie, Edmonton Oilers vs. Montreal Canadiens ($4,600)
Barrie is going to eat up PP minutes for the Oilers, who really don’t have another true offensive workhorse on their backend right now. The former Leaf has averaged right around five and a half minutes of PP time through the team’s first two games and landed an assist and four SOG in their second game against Vancouver. The Oilers had the best PP in the league last year, so at this price, given Barrie’s offensive abilities, the opponent almost becomes irrelevant. He’s a great value and stacking target with Edmonton’s big forwards.
Thomas Chabot, Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs ($5,600)
Chabot is once again going to play a ton of minutes for the Senators. He was up among the leaders in ice time in 2019-2020 and played over 27 minutes in the Sens’ first game against the Leafs, which including just under seven minutes of power-play time. While you don’t want to target Senators players every night, the matchup with the Leafs means that Chabot’s price is likely a little too cheap here considering his usage. Toronto allowed the 12th-most scoring chances against last season and allowed the 11th-most power-play goals against, making Chabot a great target.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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