After some stinkers on Saturday, Sunday should promise to be a better slate of playoff games in the NFL. We’ve got the red-hot Browns riding into face the well-rested Chiefs, and we also will have a chance to watch Drew Brees and Tom Brady duel for perhaps the last time. With some sides, totals and props being offered, here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook for this game.
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Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs:
Under 57 (-112)
Here’s the thing: Last week isn’t going to happen again. The Browns aren’t some offensive juggernaut, they just met a Steelers defense that had been in a steady decline for five or so weeks, didn’t even stop the run all that well to begin with, and got hit in the mouth pretty hard by this rushing attack. The Chiefs aren’t exactly better, but they’ve only allowed two 100-yard rushers all season long. Cleveland has the sixth-slowest pace in the NFL according to Football Outsiders, running one play every 28.4 seconds, while Kansas City is right around the middle of the league with one every 27 seconds. Considering the surprisingly slow pace both of these offenses move at, and how much the Browns will rely on the ground game, I think this is a good bet and a bit of a sell high spot on an overreaction from last week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints:
Buccaneers ML (+130)
Tampa Bay proved last weekend that it can match up against even the most imposing defenses. Tristan Wirfs did an admirable job shutting down Chase Young, and now he will look to slow another elite edge rusher in Cameron Jordan. Brady’s insanely stacked group of pass-catchers beat great corners like Kendall Fuller and Ronald Darby, and now will match up with what PFF grades as a slightly-worse secondary in New Orleans. Brady and Buccaneers can do it again, and it’ll just be up to the pass rush to make the difference against Drew Brees. Considering he really hasn’t been pressured at all this year, it’s going to be a tall task, but Tampa Bay does have Shaq Barrett who ranked fourth all year in quarterback pressures. It will come down to whether or not Todd Bowles’ Buccaneers defense has enough to slow down the Saints. Considering the topsy-turvy year New Orleans’ offense has had and the fact they’re down Tre’Quan Smith, I think I’ll give the edge to Tampa here.
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Mike Evans over 63.5 receiving yards (-112)
Evans appeared to be hobbled in last week’s win over Washington, yet he still hauled in six passes for 119 yards. He is Tom Brady’s clear top target, getting the most red-zone targets on the team. Evans will match up with Marshon Lattimore here, who is getting too much respect here from the books, having declined steadily since he burst onto the scene in his first couple of seasons. He’s had some bad games this season, allowing 95-plus yards three different times according to PFF — certainly not good enough to shy away from in this spot. Brady will no doubt continue targeting Evans despite the matchup, and if the targets are going to be there you can trust Evans will push toward 75 yards.
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