Plenty jumping out on this Super Tuesday, so let’s get right into it on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Be sure to follow along on Twitter, as news changes quickly, and live plays present themselves — @julianedlow.
A couple of solid teams on paper here, but the Buckeyes are clearly the superior squad, and I think being at home makes all the difference in this game. Ohio State is 11-3 overall, but a perfect 7-0 at home (the streak extends to 13 if you go back to last season), including 5-2 ATS in its own building this season. The Buckeyes are on a 4-1 ATS run right now, and face a hot Purdue team that’s being a bit overvalued due to recent wins.
Credit the Boilermakers for winning and covering three in a row entering Tuesday, but let’s look deeper into those road victories. Purdue won by one as a six-point dog at Michigan State, and then by 12 as a four-point dog at Indiana. Good wins, but against teams being way overvalued. Those are Purdue’s only two covers on the road this season, as they went 0-4 ATS in their first four tries. The Boilermakers lost an embarrassing road game to a very thin Miami team, and then lost the other three road games to strong competition — Iowa, Rutgers and Illinois.
This is a similar game to the latter three. Ohio State is getting healthy, and is on a very strong run, which includes road wins over both Rutgers and Illinois. The Buckeyes lost by seven at Purdue earlier this season, but were missing two of their best players. With everything clicking now, look for some revenge at home.
I’ve been fading Duke a ton this season, which has been profitable. The Blue Devils are generally a very public side, and are a pathetic 1-7 ATS this season. So why back them now? I think their value has hit rock bottom, and this is a get-right spot. Keep in mind, four of the failed covers for this team have been double-digit spreads.
Duke has been way overvalued, and now we get them in a close point spread against one of the lesser teams in the ACC. The Blue Devils are off a tough road loss at Virginia Tech — a spot we won on in this article last Tuesday — but the team showed some fight, and lost a game to a superior team in a spot they seem to fail most years.
This game reminds me more of the Notre Dame game, where we backed Duke, and got the only cover of the season. Pittsburgh has beaten up on bad teams, and is coming off back-to-back wins over a Syracuse team that’s spiralling out of control. Prior to the V-Tech loss, Duke was 3-0 in ACC play with wins over ND, BC and Wake. They should be good to cover a short number here.
Until Saturday, Michigan had been plowing through the competition, but then they endured a 75-57 thumping at Minnesota. Prior to that, the Wolverines were 11-0, including 9-2 ATS. This team gets off to terrific starts at home, leading home conference games by an average of 11.5 points at the half. Off the first loss of the season, motivation should be high.
While it’s tough to say about a good team like Maryland, it might be getting a little over valued, even as a double-digit dog. The Terrapins won their last conference game outright against Illinois as a similar 10.5-point dog, but that looks to be an outlier. Prior to that game, Maryland was on a 2-6 straight up and ATS run, including an 11-point home loss to Michigan.
After backing Baylor on the first half line last night, I want to take a similar approach here. I feel the game will be a blowout, but I prefer to target the quick start from the Wolverines. We saw the bad beat Baylor bettors had.
We already know why Michigan stands out, but Tennessee and Illinois are other favorites that I trust to get the job done in big Super Tuesday contests. The Vols face a good Florida team, but now down another key piece in Scottie Lewis. Just not enough firepower for the Gators. Penn State has lost four in a row, all as dogs of seven or fewer points, but this is more about Illinois. Losers of two in a row outright, this team needs a win. No messing around from the Illini in this one.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA) or text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789. 21+ (18+ NH). NJ/PA/WV/IN/NH/IA/CO/IL/TN only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.