The American Express should be a tournament where we mine for value instead of focusing on the favorites. We’ll still cover someone we should consider who’s near the top of the board, but over the past seven years, the average odds amongst the winners have been +15400, with the longest coming from Adam Long at +50000 in 2019 and the shortest coming from Jon Rahm at +1100 back in 2018. If you’re keen on betting first-round leaders, having golfers with the right tee draw should give you an edge. Golfers who start on the Nicklaus Tournament Course should have an advantage with it routinely playing as one of the easiest courses in scoring relative to par all season. Similar to last week, we should be focusing on golfers who’ve played in Hawai’i recently and guys who are further down the board.
For a full course preview and key statistics breakdown, refer to the DraftKings Preview on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the bets we should be considering this week on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Abraham Ancer to Win +3000
Even though Ancer missed the cut last week, his game wasn’t terrible, gaining 4.2 strokes ball-striking, but losing nearly three strokes on the greens. We should love the fact he played six competitive rounds in the last couple of weeks with his approach game on point. A top 20 and runner-up here in his previous two starts, Ancer could find himself in a familiar position this year and potentially get his first PGA TOUR win. The midrange doesn’t provide a ton of value, with golfers like Cameron Champ (+4000) and Doc Redman (+8500) moving substantially from their opening numbers, due to Rahm’s WD. Ancer may have burned some of you last week (like yours truly), so if he’s not your jam, Russell Henley (+3500) is also someone to consider. Henley’s approach has been elite for the last 20 tournaments, gaining an average of 4.8 strokes with his irons. His three-straight missed cuts here tell a different story than how he’s currently playing, and I’d rather side with his current form over his course history.
Kramer Hickok to Win +17500 | Top 5 +4000
As mentioned earlier, this tournament opens up the door for longshots, and one we should consider is the six-year PGA TOUR veteran from Austin, Texas. With a top 20 at the Sony Open last week, Hickok should feel confident after back-to-back 65s, gaining 3.6 strokes ball-striking over the weekend at Waialae CC. Hickok was close to winning in Bermuda, but had issues around/on the greens on Sunday, chilly-dipping himself out of the tournament. Kramer missed the cut here last season and finished 40th the year previous. Still, as I mentioned in the DraftKings Preview article, current form or course history doesn’t matter as much as playing competitive rounds coming into this tournament, which Hickok has.
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