The NBA season continues Saturday night with an interesting five-game slate. DraftKings continues to offer huge tournaments for DFS players and below are some of my favorite targets at each position.
Gilgeous-Alexander struggled on New Year’s Eve, scoring only 23 DKFP in a 33-point blowout loss to the Pelicans, but he should bounce back tonight against the Magic. Prior to this quiet showing, the point guard was amassing 42.4 DKFP per game this season. This will be his second meeting of the season vs. Orlando. He just exposed them for 41.25 DKFP this past Tuesday night, and his $7,900 salary marks a new season-low for Gilgeous-Alexander.
He only needs 39.5 DKFP to reach five-times value at this current cost, which is something the 22-year-old has accomplished in three of his first four starts of the season. Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t going to be this cheap for his next contest, so we must attack him tonight while he is underpriced.
Other Options: Trae Young ($10,200), Malcolm Brogdon ($7,400)
Garland has taken a huge leap so far this season. He is producing 38 DKFP and logging 36.1 minutes per game, which are significant increases from the 20.6 DKFP and 30.8 minutes per game he averaged last season. Furthermore, his assist rate has jumped from 18.1% last year to 29.5% this season, helping him to score 1.1 DKFP per minute.
Tonight, he is in an awesome spot to continue his successful 2020-21 campaign, going up against the Hawks, who rank 27th in defensive efficiency this season. They are also playing their second game in two nights and this contest is expected to be high scoring, with it presenting an O/U of 229 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. This is the highest O/U game total Garland has competed in this season and the second-year guard has a ceiling north of 40 DKFP on Saturday.
Other Options: Lonzo Ball ($6,600), Markelle Fultz ($6,200)
Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL vs. CLE, $5,800
Shooting guard is an extremely thin position for this five-game slate and gambling on a high-upside player like Bogdanovic in an elite game environment feels like one of the better strategies. He had his worst showing of the season last night vs. the Nets (10.5 DKFP) but was generating 30.1 DKFP per game heading into that tilt.
As noted above, this Hawks vs. Cavs matchup is expected to be high-scoring, and if we include his results from last season, Bogdanovic is providing 29.2 DKFP per game when he competes in a game total of 230 points or more. His price on DraftKings has hit a new season-high, but the 28-year-old could still easily outproduce his $5,800 salary, and if anything, the elevated cost should just depress his ownership in GPPs.
Other Options: Collin Sexton ($7,100)
George Hill, OKC at ORL, $4,800
Just like with Gilgeous-Alexander, Hill had an ugly showing in Thursday’s blowout loss to the Pelicans (14 DKFP), but the veteran should get back on track Saturday vs. the Magic. In his first two games of the season before Thursday’s loss, Hill was excelling as the Thunder’s new starting shooting guard, providing 31 DKFP per game.
His rates have been solid with the new club, posting a 22.5% usage rate and a 23.4% assist percentage this season, and this Magic defense that Hill will be facing has struggled to contain shooting guards thus far. Five games into the 2020-21 campaign, they are giving up the ninth-most DKFP per game to opposing SGs and the 34-year-old should get overlooked in GPPs with a weak performance in his most recent game log.
Other Options: Seth Curry ($5,600), Aaron Holiday ($3,800)
Very quietly, Harris is off to a great start in 2020-21. He is supplying 37.2 DKFP per game and already has two outings of over 40 DKFP in his first five starts of the year. When we do the math, the 28-year-old is producing 1.2 DKFP per minute this season, which is a large difference from the 1.0 DKFP per minute he averaged a year ago.
For Saturday night, Harris gets a plus matchup vs. the Hornets, who have been very susceptible to power forwards this season, allowing the eighth-most DKFP per game to the position. Harris should put up at least 35 DKFP in this spot and he is my top choice if paying up at small forward.
Other Options: Brandon Ingram ($8,100)
Terrence Ross, OKC at ORL, $5,200
Ross missed the Magic’s last game due to a hamstring injury, but he is listed as probable and expected to return for Saturday’s matchup with the Thunder. With DJ Augustin now with the Bucks, Ross has seen his role grow as the Magic’s sixth man this season. His usage rate has gone from 22.8% a year ago to 26.4% this season, helping him to score 27.2 DKFP per game.
Also, it is worth noting that Orlando’s starting shooting guard Evan Fournier (back) is questionable to suit up, and if the 28-year-old is unable to play tonight, Ross would receive a boost to his already strong projection for Saturday. The sample size is small, but when Fournier has been off the floor this season, Ross has seen his usage rate rise 7.8% to a team-high 34.2%. He is viable either way, but if this situation was to unfold, Ross would become one of the better value plays of the night.
Other Options: Cam Reddish ($5,000), Dwayne Bacon ($3,400)
Larry Nance Jr., CLE at ATL, $6,900
Even at a season-high price of $6,900, Nance Jr. is still very viable with Kevin Love (calf) out. This will be the fourth game already this season that Love has missed, and in the first three, Nance Jr. provided 39.2 DKFP per game in 37.1 minutes per game as the Cavs’ starting power forward.
The Hawks are giving up the ninth-most DKFP per game to opposing power forwards right now and in his only meeting with them last season, the athletic big man exploded for 52 DKFP. He has 50-plus DKFP upside again tonight and Nance Jr. could go under-owned considering his new higher price tag.
Other Options: Zion Williamson ($7,800), Gordon Hayward ($7,200)
Solomon Hill, ATL vs. CLE, $3,200
If you haven’t noticed by now, I think this Hawks vs. Cavs matchup is the best contest of this five-game slate to attack, and at only $3,200, Hill is rating as a solid punt play in this tremendous game setting. With Danilo Gallinari (ankle) injured, Hill has generated 16.7 DKFP in 20 minutes per game off the bench for the Hawks.
Over this time, he has hit multiple three-pointers in each contest and is shooting 45% from downtown. With Gallinari officially out again Saturday, Hill should continue to see 20-25 minutes of work with the Hawks’ second unit, and 20-plus DKFP is certainly possible for the veteran.
Other Options: Darius Bazley ($5,400), Chris Boucher ($4,700)
Sabonis has been one of the best big men in basketball so far this season. He has tallied a double-double in each of his first five starts, lifting him to an excellent 50.6 DKFP per game. The primary reason Sabonis has been so productive is the increased playing time he has handled. He is logging 37 minutes per game after receiving 34.8 minutes per game last season.
The 24-year-old is amassing an immense 1.4 DKFP per minute in 2020-21 and he is in a gorgeous matchup against the Knicks on Saturday. This New York defense has surrendered the most DKFP per game to opposing centers this year and Sabonis just erupted for 58.25 DKFP against them two weeks ago in the season opener. He is worth every penny tonight and a strong target for both cash games and GPPs.
Other Options: Andre Drummond ($9,200), Nikola Vucevic ($8,700)
Clint Capela, CLE at ATL, $5,200
If Capela isn’t limited Saturday after just playing on Friday, he will be close to a must-play at only $5,200. After only seeing 20 minutes in both of his first two games of the season, Capela logged 29.4 minutes last night vs. the Nets and notched a 12-point, 11-rebound double-double for 35.75 DKFP.
The former Rocket has scored 1.2 DKFP per minute this year and is now averaging 36.7 DKFP per game in his past 10 with a minimum of 25 minutes of action. The Cavs are currently allowing the seventh-most DKFP per game to opposing centers and Capela is a great bet for his second double-double in a row if he isn’t limited.
Other Options: Mitchell Robinson ($5,400), Nerlens Noel ($3,300)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.