After a slow start to the season the San Antonio Spurs are red-hot coming into tonight’s contest with the Golden State Warriors, having won six of their past eight games. The key to this run of success? Fundamentals, fundamentals and more fundamentals, as the Spurs rank fourth in defensive rating (105.6) and first in assist-to-turnover ratio (2.7) within that span of time. I guess Gregg Popovich still has a couple tricks up his sleeve, right?
Let’s break down everything else you need to know for Wednesday’s matchup from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $120K Fadeaway [$30K to 1st] (SAS vs GSW)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Stephen Curry ($15,600 CP) - Even with some very notable performances in the past three weeks, things still aren’t perfect when it comes to Curry’s DFS viability on a night-to-night basis. Heck, going back to Jan. 6, the former MVP is shooting just 41.2% from the field and is averaging 1.17 DKFP per minute — an underwhelming figure for an asset with a role as large as Curry’s. However, with the Spurs tending to favor a slow-paced defensive style of play, these are the types of matchups where you have to lean on your stars. It’s not like Curry won’t get the opportunity to shoot his way out of his rut, either. In fact, through 13 contests, Curry is hoisting up a career-high 20.6 field goal attempts per game. There’s also a chance that number is a little low for Wednesday’s projections, with Andrew Wiggins ($8,400; knee) questionable and Curry owning a 34.1% usage rate with the Canadian off the court so far in 2020-21.
DeMar DeRozan ($14,400 CP) - Though I think you could make the case that DeRozan has a higher DFS floor than Curry on this slate, San Antonio’s balanced offensive system makes ceiling a bit of an issue. Don’t get me wrong, DeRozan’s having a fantastic campaign and he’s far and away deserving to be the team’s highest-priced asset — he’s averaging a team-best 1.20 DKFP per minute — however, six different Spurs rotation players have a usage rate of 20% or better. While DeRozan is the No. 1 scoring option, it’s a title that’s not quite as beneficial as it would be in a non-Popovich setting. The former All-Star has still managed to post at least 43.0 DKFP in seven of his 12 starts this season, yet I think looking for value on San Antonio’s roster is probably a wiser path than searching for a Captain.
UTIL Plays
Rudy Gay ($5,600) - It’s been over five years since Gay was the top scoring option on a team, yet the veteran keeps plugging away. Never known for his efficiency, Gay has continued to take shots seemingly at will in the latter-half of his career, it’s just now his volume shooting comes in smaller doses of playing time. No matter. If anything, coming off the bench has simply made Gay more willing to get up shots, as evidenced by the forward averaging 22.3 field goal attempts per 100 possessions this season — the second-highest mark on the Spurs. Gay’s also second among qualified players on the team in total rebounding rate (12.3%), which is why he’s managed to exceed 20.0 DKFP in 10 of his 14 contests in 2020-21.
Eric Paschall ($4,800) - There are only three active players on the Warriors’ roster averaging over 1.00 DKFP per minute of action: Curry, James Wiseman ($5,200) and Paschall. The nice thing about the latter, especially when juxtaposed to the rookie center, is you know what you’re getting from Paschall each and every night. Where Wiseman’s role has fluctuated all year long, Paschall’s consistently logged around 20 minutes per game, scoring at least 10 points in nine of his last 10 appearances. In fact, Paschall ranks third on Golden State in points per contest (12.3) and he could be asked to do more on Wednesday if Wiggins is eventually ruled out. That, or Curry’s going off for 60 again.
Fades
LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,600) - Aldridge isn’t completely cooked — he literally scored 22 points in 24 minutes against Portland on Monday — but the big man is no longer someone who you can afford to spend this much salary on. Consider that Aldridge has only exceeded 30.0 DKFP three times so far in 2020-21 and two of those performances came with DeRozan away from the team due to personal matters. In fact, with DeRozan starting, Aldridge is averaging a measly 23.3 DKFP per game. Aldridge is also generating his lowest marks in points per game (14.4) and minutes per game (27.9) since all the way back in his rookie campaign, while his total rebounding rate of 8.6% is by far the worst figure of his entire career. There’s just no good reason to fork over almost $8K for the 35-year-old.
THE OUTCOME
While the Warriors’ recent comeback victory over the Lakers was stunning, I truly believe it’s the Spurs that come into this matchup as the more confident squad. San Antonio is 9-5 ATS to begin 2020-21 and its 7-0 ATS in its past seven games as a road underdog. Defense and taking care of the basketball tend to travel well, as they say. Still, the more enticing play might just be taking the under, as both of these teams are top 10 in defensive rating and bottom 10 in offensive rating over their past five contests.
Final Score: San Antonio 104, Golden State 101
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $120K Fadeaway [$30K to 1st] (SAS vs GSW)
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA) or TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789. 21+ (18+ NH). NJ/PA/WV/NH/IN/NH/IA/CO/IL/TN only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.