The NBA is the Wild West right now given COVID-19 and the league’s health protocols, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t edges to be had. We had another 3-0 article on Wednesday, making us 6-0 on the week, targeting all player props. Update the season record to 25-15, and lets look to stay hot in the prop market on a loaded Friday card.
Follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow — for what we hope to be another great season, as some plays jump out late due to news, particularly in the player prop market. Here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook.
This is an auto-bet at this point, which you know if you read this article often. Grant is 13-1 to the over on his point prop this season, extending the streak to 13 in a row on Wednesday. His point prop went up a point to 23.5, and now his three-way is also a season-high, up two. But we only have to pay the -110 juice on this one, compared to -134 (and rising) on the points. Houston is sloppy defensively, and will be missing Christian Wood in the frontcourt. Really, we’re just riding this one until Grant finally goes under.
This is another repeat bet from Wednesday, but if we’re going to keep getting the same number, I’m going to keep riding. Since Markelle Fultz went down for the Magic, Gordon has pretty much been playing PG for Orlando. In the six games Gordon’s played since Fultz got injured, he’s posted assist totals of five, eight, three, six, 10 and seven — going over the current prop in five of six games, and averaging 6.5 in that span. The market hasn’t caught up to Gordon’s new role.
Houston Rockets at Detroit Pistons: Victor Oladipo OVER 5.5 assists (-134)
Hey guess what? We’re going back to a third bet from Wednesday. Oladipo’s played two games with the Rockets since being acquired, and with John Wall out, he’s playing the majority of his 32 minutes per game at PG. In his debut, it resulted in nine assists against the Bulls, and he followed it up with six assists against a solid Phoenix defense, with the offense taking a while to get going. Against a soft Detroit defense, ‘Dipo should have an easier time finding teammates, and they should have an easier time knocking down shots. Sticking with the over here.
Capela’s been on an absolute roll recently, highlighted by a 27-point, 26-rebound, five-block showing against the Pistons on Wednesday. He’s scored at least 23 points in each of his last three games, and hit that number on Monday against the Timberwolves. Minnesota was already awful defending centers, but still without Karl-Anthony Towns, there isn’t much resistance here. We generally think of boards with Capela, but I think he should remain a scoring threat in this matchup.
Atlanta Hawks at Minnesota Timberwolves: D’Angelo Russell OVER 22.5 points (-134)
Russell had a down game against Orlando, but I’m willing to throw the Magic out due to how slow they play. Prior to that contest, Russell scored 25 or more points in five of six games, and has been getting a boost with the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns. Russell dropped 31 in this matchup on Monday, getting good pace and a favorable matchup for PGs facing Atlanta. If Ricky Rubio is ruled in, maybe a slight downgrade for D-Lo, but with Rubio looking to distribute more, I think this prop is still fine.
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