Hey, I’m Cramer. Maybe you know me from TV, where I talk and teach people how to make money in the stock market. For the past four months, I’ve also written about how to help people make money betting on football at DraftKings Sportsbook and playing DFS right here on DraftKings.
As I’ve done all season with help from my partners at Bull Market Fantasy and will continue to do for the remainder of the postseason, I’ll reveal our strategy for DraftKings DFS lineups and player props on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Since there are only four teams remaining, we are changing the format for this week. Instead of suggesting players for each position for Cash Games or GPP, we are releasing our best game stacks for each team along with a few player props.
Now … Let’s get to it for the AFC and NFC Championships
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers
The Bucs are a 3.5-point underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook despite beating the Packers 38-10 back in Week 6. The over/under sits at 51.5 points and with two legendary quarterbacks in Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers going head-to-head there’s no wrong answer on which QB to use for your DFS lineups.
Game Stack with Bucs emphasis:
QB: Tom Brady ($6,100):
The lowest-priced starting QB on the slate. Brady has scored over 22 DKFP in his past five outings.
RB: Leonard Fournette ($5,300):
Posting back-to-back weeks of more than 20 DKFP, Fournette has been the star of the Bucs’ offense in their first two playoff games. He totaled 107 yards and scored last week against the Saints and seems to be the favorable option over Ronald Jones, which is quite the opposite of the Bucs’ backfield situation during the regular season.
WR: Davante Adams ($8,000):
The Packers’ star wideout scored a touchdown in 11 of his past 12 games and is averaging 26.8 DKFP per game. If the game total gets anywhere near the suggested 51.5 points, there’s no scenario in which Adams won’t be a big part of Green Bay’s offensive production.
WR: Chris Godwin ($5,400):
Four hundred dollars cheaper than teammate Mike Evans, Godwin has come on strong over the past five weeks, scoring five touchdowns in four games. In fact, the only game he didn’t reach at least 13 DKFP in the past month was last weekend against the Saints. However, while the production wasn’t necessarily there, the opportunity was, as Godwin led the team in targets.
Boom/Bust Flyer: Scotty Miller ($3,400):
With Antonio Brown ruled out with a knee injury, Miller could see some extended action in the NFC Championship game. He’s a bit of a risk considering he’s caught just one pass in each of his past four games but he is averaging 15.75 yards per catch in that span.
Game Stack with Packers emphasis:
QB: Aaron Rodgers ($6,500):
Even against a vaunted Rams defense, which allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterback in the regular season, Rodgers was able to score 25.54 DKFP (his third straight game above 25). There’s a reason he’s the heavy favorite to win the 2020 NFL MVP award.
RB: Aaron Jones ($6,500):
With three touchdowns in his past four games and more than 90 yards in that span, the Packers rusher is benefitting tremendously from defenses focusing more on slowing down Rodgers. Tampa Bay has a stout run defense, but they’ll have their hands full trying to stop MVP Aaron, which should allow Jones to churn out his third straight game with more than 18 DKFP.
WR: Davante Adams ($8,000):
No Packers stack would be complete without Davante Adams.
Boom/Bust Flyer: Cameron Brate ($3,000):
While Rob Gronkowski might get all the love from fans and the media, Brate’s been getting more love from Tom Brady during the Bucs’ playoff run. Brate has hauled in four catches in both of Tampa Bay’s postseason games and has been targeted 11 times. Meanwhile, Gronk has just one playoff reception this year on just six targets.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Right now, Kansas City is a 3.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook and the over/under is at 54.5. Like the Packers and Bucs, the Chiefs and Bills also met during the regular season, with the reigning Super Bowl Champs earning a 26-17 victory. K.C. covered the 5.5-point spread in that game, but the Chiefs were brutal this year ATS with a 7-10 record. Meanwhile, the Bills are 12-6 ATS and 4-1 ATS as an underdog.
Game Stack with Chiefs emphasis:
QB: Patrick Mahomes ($7,600):
Mahomes has been cleared from the concussion protocol and has no injury designation for Sunday’s game. One would have to go way back to Week 7 to find the last time the reigning Super Bowl MVP didn’t score at least 20 DKFP. Heck, he even scored 21 last week and that was despite barely playing in the second half.
WR: Tyreek Hill ($7,200):
The most explosive playmaker in the NFL, Hill hit that 100-yard bonus last week against the Browns while also hauling in eight catches. With a 22.6 DKFP per game average, his high floor and ridiculously high ceiling make him worth every penny of your $50K salary cap.
WR: Stefon Diggs ($7,000):
With back-to-back 27 DKFP performances, Diggs is extending his stellar regular season into the postseason. The Chiefs’ secondary could be missing a key cog with Breshaud Breeland possibly being inactive, which only amplifies Diggs’ potential for another dominant performance.
TE: Travis Kelce ($8,000):
The Chiefs' star tight end has outscored every player that isn’t a QB in action this weekend over the past five games. His stats are gaudy: eight or more catches in eight of his past nine games, five consecutive games with a touchdown and over 100 yards in six out of his past nine. Not sure anyone can afford NOT to have Kelce in their lineups.
Boom/Bust Flyer: Dawson Knox ($2,800):
The players listed above all cost a pretty penny and will wipe out $28,600 from your $50K salary cap, so using a player like Knox at sub-$3K provides some much-needed cap relief. He averaged 6.2 DKFP per game and considering no other player on the slate priced below $3,000 averaged more than 2 DKFP, the Bills tight end is the best “dumpster dive” option.
Game Stack with Bills emphasis:
QB: Josh Allen ($6,900)
Prior to the divisional match against the Ravens, Allen was on a tear, scoring 35 or more DKFP in four of his previous five games. The Chiefs don’t have the same caliber of defense as Baltimore, which should result in Allen getting back to his prolific passing (and rushing) production.
WR: Stefon Diggs ($7,000):
Read above for analysis.
WR: John Brown ($4,300):
Thanks to a whopping 11 targets, Brown finished with eight catches for 62 yards vs. the Ravens. Kansas City’s defense was in the bottom 10 of the league in yards per completion with 10.7 per catch, which bodes well for Brown considering he averaged 14.9 yards per catch.
TE: Travis Kelce ($8,000):
For analysis on Kelce’s dominance read our above analysis.
Boom/Bust Flyer: Mecole Hardman ($4,000):
If Bills All-Pro cornerback Tra’Davious White is focusing on Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs will need to look to their other speedster for one or two deep shots. If he connects on one for a touchdown, he’ll give any DFS lineup a major shot in the arm right up the leaderboard.
Player Props
Typically when looking at our player props we go for a very safe, calculated strategy. But with only three games left in the NFL season and a profitable betting season that bolstered our bankroll, we are taking a few risky bets that come with major rewards. Below you’ll find one conservative player prop and one “lotto ticket.”
Conservative: Travis Kelce to score (-125):
With Mahomes having been cleared from the concussion protocol, Kelce to find the end zone at -125 is our best bet of the weekend. The odds of -125 falls right in our wheelhouse of “willing to pay up for a solid return.” Kelce has scored in four straight games, five of his past six and also scored twice against the Bills back in Week 6.
Lotto ticket: Davante Adams to score 2+ TDs: Bet YES (+225):
It may be a sure thing that Adams finds the end zone once, after all, he’s scored in 12 of his past 13 games. But his odds for one TD is costly at -182. His ability to find the end zone twice isn’t too far-fetched considering he’s done it four times in that 12-game scoring stretch.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football Millionaire lineups here: NFL $4M Conference Clash Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
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Jim Cramer is the host of “Mad Money with Jim Cramer” and co-anchor of CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” He is also an author and a co-founder of BullMarketFantasy.com.
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