Championship Sunday is here in the NFL, and we have a matchup in the NFC between two legendary quarterbacks with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. It doesn’t get better than this. With a frigid game expected at Lambeau Field, here are a few plays that stand out most on DraftKings Sportsbook.
It’s a high number with plenty of juice, but with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, there’s no way the Packers don’t force-feed their stud in this game. Tampa has one of the best run defenses in the NFL, complicating things for Aaron Jones and the rest of the RBs, but Aaron Rodgers will get creative in ways to get Adams the ball on quick routes. Adams averages 8.3 receptions per game this season, and we saw how Green Bay may plan to use him last week against the Rams. Even in a matchup against Jalen Ramsey last week, Adams was able to snag 9-of-10 targets. He should see at least that workload again in this game.
Maybe the most impressive prop in the NFL is Adams’ first touchdown run. He’s played in 15 total games this season and somehow has a 6-9 record as the first TD scorer. At numbers like +600-800, that has him at plus-28 units on the season. The odds are lessening, but I’ll still ride at +525.
The Packers have been an insanely impressive first-half team this season, building leads early. Green Bay averages an NFL-best 18.7 points in the first half, and almost never have a dud. Through 17 games, the Pack has scored at least 14 points in the first half 15 times! The only two fails were both on the road, scoring 10 in Tampa and 13 in New Orleans.
In the end, I think the Packers are simply too good at home — where Rodgers covers at a nearly 70% clip as a favorite of seven or fewer points. I don’t expect a bad game from Tampa, but I think keeping up offensively could prove an issue. The Bucs got 21 points off the Saints’ first three turnovers last week, turning it over four times overall. Rodgers isn’t going to give Tom Brady that chance, he’s going to protect the ball. In a mistake-free game, I like Green Bay. And if a QB does make a mistake, I do lean toward it being Brady. He nearly threw a costly one last week that would’ve changed the game. Now he goes outdoors to brave the elements in Green Bay.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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