D’Angelo Russell revenge game! I kid. Unfortunately, Russell is questionable with a quad contusion, and with Karl-Anthony Towns out, this game could be a laugher. DK Sportsbook has the home Warriors favored by nine points with the O/U at 227. Could that mean this is the Andrew Wiggins revenge game? These revenge narratives always confuse me.
Anyways, it’s too bad these teams aren’t healthy because this game could be juicy for fantasy purposes as the Warriors play at the third-fastest pace while the Timberwolves are sixth. In addition, Minnesota is 24th in defensive efficiency while the Warriors are 17th.
Let’s break down everything to play a few Showdown lineups.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $120K Fadeaway [$30K to 1st] (MIN vs GSW)
Steph Curry ($15,900 CP) - Curry is the engine of the Warriors’ train, as he garners a 32% usage rate and hoists up 20 shots per game. He’s averaging 1.39 DKFP per minute and 47.45 DKFP per game. On the season, he’s scored fewer than 40 DKFP in five games but gone over 50 DKFP six times — including a 68-DKFP outing and a 75.75-DKFP explosion.
Now he gets a matchup against a Timberwolves team that plays at the sixth-fastest pace and doesn’t like guarding anyone (24th in defensive efficiency). Zooming in closer, they boost the fantasy points per minute to point guards by 13.28% above league average and 24.14% above league average for 3-pointers — a Curry specialty.
The only concern would be the possibility of a blowout win for the Warriors. It’s highly unlikely the Timberwolves put it to the Warriors. With that said, in the two games the Warriors have won by 20 or more points, Curry has produced 53.75 and 54.75 DKFP. So, in blowouts, it’s likely that Curry was instrumental in creating the margin.
D’Angelo Russell ($14,700 CP) - Russell is questionable with a quad contusion, so keep an eye on the reports up to tipoff. I’m not crazy about any of the Timberwolves players, but I have to pick one, so why not choose Russell. A ringing endorsement, huh? Russell does lead the team with 1.17 DKFP per minute and garners a 30.4% usage rate on the season, so this isn’t the worst play.
Russell has had three stinkers this season: nine DKFP against the Lakers in a game the Timberwolves lost by 36 points and Russell was in foul trouble, 24 DKFP in a blowout loss to the Wizards in which he played only 25 minutes, and 17 DKFP in the game in which he injured his quad and only played 20 minutes. Outside of that, he’s been consistently in the 32-to-43 DKFP range with a season-high of 59.25 DKFP.
If Russell is unable to play, then I’d pivot to Naz Reid ($11,400 CP). Reid is averaging 1.03 DKFP per minute and 22.43 DKFP per game. He’s received four straight starts and has produced 18.5, 25.75, 36.5, and 30.5 DKFP. The matchup isn’t daunting and the Warriors boost the fantasy points per minute to centers by 1.57% over the league average.
Jarred Vanderbilt ($6,000) - Vanderbilt has started the last four games and averaged 23.7 minutes. He’s coming off his second double-double of the season and has been contributing in the defensive categories, averaging two steals and one block. He’s gone for 29, 13.25, 27, and 37.25 DKFP, and, on the season, is averaging 1.1 DKFP per minute. The Warriors are boosting the fantasy points per minute production to power forwards by 11.1% over league average, the worst mark in the Association.
Jarrett Culver ($4,200) - Culver is for salary relief. The floor is low, scoring single-digit DKFP in two games and fluctuating playing time, but there is some upside here. He’s coming off a game in which he played 24 minutes and scored 25.25 DKFP. Prior to that, he played 18, 15, and 19 minutes while scoring 23, 15.75, and 22.25 DKFP, respectively. Culver also has a high of 33 DKFP when starting and played 28 minutes a few weeks ago. He is averaging a respectable 0.85 DKFP per minute.
Kelly Oubre Jr. ($7,400) - Oubre has had a tumultuous season, scoring fewer than 20 DKFP in five games, and he is coming off a season-worst 8.5 DKFP performance against the Jazz. Yuck. He had broken off a streak of six decent performances prior to that, though, and now gets a matchup that should be conducive to his skill set. The Timberwolves don’t like playing defense and also run and gun, while Oubre thrives in transition. A decent bounce-back game could be in order.
James Wiseman ($7,000) - I usually only write up three players. It’s your lucky day! I wanted to mention Wiseman because the matchup is pristine. The Timberwolves boost fantasy points per minute to centers by 11.1% over the league average. In particular, a whopping 30.54% boost for three-pointers. Wiseman isn’t a prolific shooter from downtown, having only attempted more than two in just one game, but in that lone instance, he converted 3 of 4 attempts en route to a 34.5 DKFP performance against the Bucks. Over the past three games, Wiseman has scored 33.5, 29.5, and 24.75 DKFP and is averaging 1.09 DKFP per minute.
Malik Beasley ($8,200) - Beasley is averaging 0.97 DKFP per minute and 31.05 DKFP per game. He’s gone for under 30 DKFP in nine games and over 40 DKFP just twice. He’s a high-volume score, averaging 16 shots per game, but is only converting 43% of his attempts on the season. Over the past four games, in particular, he’s shot 37% from the field. While he will grab some rebounds, Beasley doesn’t contribute much in any of the other categories — so he’s highly scoring-dependent. Now he gets a matchup against the Warriors, who are excellent against shooting guards, suppressing fantasy points per minute by 10.59% below the league average. Could Beasley get hot? Sure. But when you factor the matchup with the price (third-highest on the slate), he’s a clear fade for me.
The Timberwolves have won one game on the road this season (out of six), and they had Towns in that one. Outside of their 120-point explosion against the Pelicans last game, they averaged 98.8 points in the prior five games. With how porous their defense is, the Warriors should feast in this one and send all the Bay Area fans home happy. Oh, wait.
Final Score: Golden State 120, Minnesota 101
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $300K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st] (GSW vs LAL)
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