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The NBA is the Wild West right now given COVID-19 and the league’s health protocols, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t edges to be had. We were due for some regression on Friday and it hit, finishing 1-4 on article plays, but we still sit at 26-19 on the season. Let’s see what Monday’s card has to offer.
Follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow — for what we hope to be another great season, as some plays jump out late due to news, particularly in the player prop market. Here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Detroit Pistons vs. Philadelphia 76ers: Jerami Grant OVER 21.5 points (-121)
Stop me if you’ve seen this one in this space before. Grant finally let us down on Friday night, ending the streak of hitting the over on his point prop at 13 in a row. He also missed us the points, rebounds and assists prop by the hook. He finished with 21 points in that game, but on just 4-of-15 shooting. He followed it up with his first dud since the first game of the season on Saturday — shooting 3-of-19 for just 11 points against Philly. Grant’s prop reached 23.5, but now the two poor games have him back down to 21.5. Assuming this 7-for-34 shooting drought comes to an end on Monday, I like Grant to get back to the over. He’s still 13-3 to this prop on the year.
Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic: Aaron Gordon OVER 4.5 assists (-155)
Gordon assists have been my favorite prop lately. Since Markelle Fultz got injured, Gordon’s hit the over here in six of seven games, but the number refuses to budge. Yes, we have to lay some juice, but the number is so low that I can’t pass it up. AG is playing a point-forward role for Orlando now and is averaging 6.9 assists since Fultz went down. Over the past three games, Gordon has 26 total assists and no fewer than seven in any single game. Let’s keep it rolling.
Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets: James Harden OVER 9.5 assists (-143)
We were all curious what this new trio of stars would look like in Brooklyn. It’s pretty clear early on that Harden is going to be this team’s point guard, and that leaves him in the perfect spot to distribute to the other studs. In five games with the Nets, Harden’s averaging 12 assists per game and has played at least 37 minutes in each game. He has no fewer than 11 assists in any of those five games, including 11 against Miami on Saturday.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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