Headlined by Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele, the Farmers Insurance Open will play at Torrey Pines for the 53rd time. Past winners have been the elite like Rahm (+710), Jason Day (+3500) and Justin Rose, who’ve all reached no. 1 in OWGR in their careers. Since 2014, past champions (besides Scott Stallings in 2014 and Day in 2018) have also finished the year playing at East Lake. Sure, most guys who win a golf tournament have a reasonably decent shot at making it to the TOUR Championship that year. Longshots are always fun to consider, but if you’re looking for the “Scott Stallings” of this year, make sure they’ve got some course history. Golfers with long odds this week like Bubba Watson (+5000), Brandt Snedeker (+16000) and J.B Holmes (+22500) routinely play well at Torrey Pines.
Over the past seven years, the average odds are +6100, with the shortest coming from Justin Rose in 2019 and Jason Day in 2018 at +1300. The longest odds came from Scott Stallings at +25000 back in 2014.
For a full course preview and key statistics breakdown, refer to the DraftKings Preview on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the bets we should be considering this week on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Matthew Wolff to Win +3400
Wolff finished 21st in his first appearance at Torrey Pines last season, gaining three strokes ball striking on the South Course in only his 14th tournament a professional. He didn’t gain (or lose) and strokes on the green but still managed a very respectable top 25 in a strong field last season. Since then, he’s racked up quite a resume with a win and two top 5 finishes at majors, one of which was a runner-up at last year’s U.S. Open. His distance will help here, but he’ll need to make sure he’s not spending too much time around the greens. Wolff lost just under two strokes last year and has lost a total of 13.4 strokes around the greens in his previous three measured tournaments. Let’s hope he relies heavily on his ball-striking, where he ranks fourth over his past 50 rounds.
Adam Scott to Win +4500
Some things feel right, and backing Adam Scott on a long-classical course in California is something we should be considering. Scott’s only appearance here back in 2019 resulted in a runner-up finish where he gained 15.9 strokes total, 7.5 of which were through approach. Scott doesn’t play a ton of tournaments anymore, let alone this early in the schedule, but we’ve now seen him tee it up twice in the past three weeks, both in Hawai’i, which should help him out tremendously when tackling Torrey Pines. The Plantation Course and Waialae CC do not correlate to what the course will play like this week. Still, other places like Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo), Muirfield Village CC (Memorial), Riviera CC (Genesis Invitational) and Augusta National (Masters) all do. Scott’s finishes at these courses are elite, and a Torrey Pines win would add to an already impressive trophy case.
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