The NBA is the Wild West right now given COVID-19 and the league’s health protocols, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t edges to be had. We had a profitable 2-1 Monday, moving article plays along to 28-20 on the season. Let’s go back to a couple of old faithful spots for some success on Wednesday.
Follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow — for what we hope to be another great season, as some plays jump out late due to news, particularly in the player prop market. Here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook.
After failing to hit the over on his point prop two games in a row, Grant got us there on Monday, dropping 25 on the 76ers. He’s now averaging 24.3 points on the season, but we get his prop set a bucket below his average, still showing value. We do need to pay the juice, but as you know if you read often, Grant has been our ATM this season — 14-3 to the over on his points. Cleveland is a soft matchup, and Grant went for 28 points the first time these two teams matched up this season. There should be a little extra boost for Grant’s scoring in this one, too, as Blake Griffin (rest) has been ruled out for Detroit.
This spot’s become one we’re going to on a consistent basis. We’ve hit five assist overs in a row on Gordon, but started to lay some juice on the over 4.5 numbers. Now the adjustment has finally been made to move the prop to 5.5, but we do get plus money on a number that should easily be obtainable. We go over these stats every time, but Gordon is averaging 7.8 assists over his last five games, essentially playing PG for Orlando since Markelle Fultz went down for the season. He’s had at least six assists in each of the last five, so even at the new number, I’m not too worried. Eventually, just like Grant, we’ll hit a wall here. But the matchup against the Kings doesn’t have any red flags. Sacramento has been awful defensively.
Sacramento Kings at Orlando Magic: Evan Fournier OVER 3.5 assists (-134)
Here’s a new wrinkle to Orlando’s offense: Fournier is also contributing as a passer since returning from injury. I didn’t see this one coming, as Fournier was averaging just a couple assists per game when he got hurt, and only had two in his first game back, playing just 28 minutes. Since then, Fournier has dished out nine dimes against Indy and had six assists in each game of a back-to-back against the Hornets. He’s been able to produce these numbers with Gordon doing his thing, so this feels like a very safe spot to at least hit one of these guys, and potentially both.
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