The action on the field for Super Bowl LV is still over a week away, but the action in the betting markets has been ongoing for almost five days now. Betting is always an integral part of Super Bowl coverage, and this year is surely no different, with bettors beginning to take their stands from the moment the matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers was first determined. Betting lines for the Big Game have already moved around, and there are trends to analyze on these two teams as well as the over-under.
Big Game Playlist
Super Bowl betting officially opened on Sunday night with the Chiefs matched up against the Buccaneers. The matchup is interesting on many levels, but perhaps the most unique element is the fact that the Buccaneers will be playing in their home stadium, capping off a season in which home-field advantage had less than its usual effect without having fans in the seats. This is the first Super Bowl home game in NFL History, and ordinarily this would be a significant and quantifiable edge for the Buccaneers, but with a limited capacity stadium it’s going to be much harder to determine how much this home-field advantage will matter. With all of that considered, DraftKings Sportsbook opened with the Chiefs as 3.5-point favorites and the total set at 57.5.
How the Lines Have Moved
The betting lines took only a few minutes to start bouncing around, first taking a plunge towards the Bucs and especially towards the under. By Monday morning, the Bucs had dropped from +3.5 to +3, and the total had dropped all the way from 57.5 to 56. It’s possible that sharp bettors simply saw these numbers as too high (especially the total) and quickly bet them down, but this correction may have had to do with a key injury on the Chiefs offensive line, as well. Chiefs left tackle Eric Fisher injured his leg late in the AFC Championship game, and the speculation that he would miss the Super Bowl could have persuaded bettors. It’s still unclear if Fisher will suit up next Sunday, but his absence would certainly be an issue for the Chiefs offense.
Betting Splits Breakdown
The spread has continued to move back and forth between 3 and 3.5, and it’s fairly unclear what role the betting splits have played in this process. As you can see here, the bet percentage actually skews slightly towards the Buccaneers, while the handle percentage is lopsided towards the Chiefs. Total betting is much more concrete, representing a trend that is almost always the expectation in the Super Bowl — most bettors like the over and are primed to root for scoring — and that’s reflected in both the bet and handle percentages. Moving over to the moneyline bets, there’s really not much to discern here, either, as both the bet and handle splits are fairly close to 50/50. At this point it seems apparent that there’s a divide between the public and the sharps on the total — with sharp bettors preferring the under — but betting trends on the two sides are far murkier. Perhaps this betting breakdown will become more clear by next week, when you can check back here for another update!
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