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Week 17 gets pretty tough when it comes to the NFL board on sides and totals. This year is maybe even more of a mess. I’ll stay away from sides this week, and just lock in on a couple of player props on teams that still have motivation to play. Also looking to a total on a big divisional game with a lot of injury news. All plays are in the late window of games, so plenty of time to get them in. Here are a few plays that stand out most on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards: OVER 83.5 (-134)
The Colts need a win here to likely make the playoffs, although if all the other 10-win teams in the AFC also win, Indy would remain on the outside looking in. Regardless, the Colts absolutely need to win and certainly should as a two-touchdown favorite against the Jags. Jordan Wilkins appears to be fully out of the backfield rotation, and Taylor has been the featured rusher over the past five games. During that span, he’s rushed for 83 or more yards four times, and last week got to 74 against an elite Pittsburgh run defense. Jacksonville ranks 30th in rush defense, allowing 145.3 yards per game. Conveniently enough, Taylor needs exactly 84 yards for a 1,000-yard season as a rookie. He said getting to the milestone would mean a lot. The matchup should get him there anyway, and if Indy is up big late, look for it to help Taylor get there.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Derrick Henry Rushing Yards: OVER 118.5 (like it up to 130)
This is my favorite play of the week. DraftKings Sportsbook took the 118.5 off the board, and it should open back up in the 126-128 range. That’s fine with me, as this should be a spot that Henry goes off — as we’ve seen before. The Titans need to win to lock up the division and even a playoff spot. This is when they lean on Henry, especially in a matchup like this. Houston ranks 31st in the NFL in rush defense, allowing 151.7 yards per game. Earlier this season, Henry finished with a 22-212-2 line against the Texans. But I’m more interested in the matchup to end last season — the Titans needed a win to make the playoffs and a 200-yard game from Henry to get him the rushing title. He finished with a 32-211-3 line, with Tennessee clearly force-feeding him the ball. Henry should hit this over in the flow of the game, but sitting 223 yards away from 2,000 on the season, the Titans might help him get there again.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
UNDER 41 (-108)
This is a huge game with playoff implications in the NFC West, and both teams are running on fumes. Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp and Darrell Henderson are all out for the Rams, and Cam Akers is battling through some bumps and bruises. For Arizona, Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk are both out, plus Kyler Murray is banged up with a leg injury. Neither team has been scoring well lately, and I expect this one to be a ground and pound game between two teams that know each other well. Points should be at a premium.
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