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Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for Kings vs. Warriors Showdown on January 4

Stan Son gives his top NBA lineup advice for Monday’s fantasy basketball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Kings and Warriors, which starts at 10 p.m. ET.

NBA: Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Steph Curry just put up a career-high 62 points last night, good for 75.75 DKFP. What can he do for an encore? DraftKings Sportsbook has the visiting Kings as 2.5 favorites with a healthy 232.5 O/U, so there could plenty of back-and-forth fireworks.

Let’s break down everything to play a few Showdown lineups.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $300K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st] (SAC vs GSW)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Steph Curry ($16,800 CP) - Duh. He’s coming off a 75.75 DKFP game last night and is the highest-projected player in this game. Curry is also garnering a usage rate of 35% and is hoisting up close to 22 shots per game, with 12 of those coming from behind the arc. The matchup isn’t a daunting one, as the Kings are 19th in defensive efficiency and are boosting fantasy points per minute (FPPM) to the point guard position by 5.03%.

Now, there are reasons to eschew Curry for another player. First off, the Kings are decreasing FPPM for three-pointers by point guards by 35.71%, so it will be interesting to see how this one plays out. Curry is also $1,500 more expensive than De’Aaron Fox, so is that the best way to allocate resources? Finally, Curry will likely garner massive ownership, especially after last night’s game. Keep in mind that over the first five games of the season, Curry was averaging 45.95 DKFP per game.

There are many paths to victory, and Curry likely offers the best floor-ceiling combo on the slate. With that said, he’s very expensive and will be highly owned, so are you willing to risk it to get the biscuit?

De’Aaron Fox ($15,300 CP) - I hate writing up the two most expensive players, but it is what it is. Both Curry and Fox are projected for the highest amount of points and garner the most usage on their respective teams. I did think about Buddy Hield ($9,000) here, as he can light it up from downtown, but the floor/ceiling combo of Fox was too much to ignore.

Fox is averaging 36 DKFP per game and has gone over 40 three times, with a high of 47.25. The 15.50 DKFP stinker against the Suns in the third game brings his average way down. Outside of that, there’s not too much to dislike.

Fox is averaging 17.2 shots per game and contributes across the board, which provides a high floor. It’s a pace-up spot, as the Warriors lead the league in that department and they are 27th in defensive efficiency.

As mentioned in the intro, the spread is only 2.5 with an O/U of 232.5, so this game should be a competitive, back-and-forth affair with plenty of offensive possessions.


FLEX Plays

Richaun Holmes ($7,600) - Earlier in the season, the center rotation for the Kings was somewhat ambiguous, as Hassan Whiteside ($3,000) was getting 15-17 minutes per game. Over the last three games, Holmes has played 32, 35, and 33 minutes while Whiteside received 10, 12, and 3 minutes. On the season, Holmes is averaging 1.05 DKFP per minute.

The Warriors boost the FPPM for the center position by 6.94%, seventh-most generous in the league. Much of that boost comes in the rebounding department, as the increase is a robust 19.67%. That meshes perfectly with Holmes and his 9.3 rebounds per game.

Kelly Oubre Jr. ($7,000) - Oubre has been brutal to start the season, primarily due to the fact he’s shooting 32% from the field. The shot attempts are there — he is averaging 12.5 per game. He is also grabbing rebounds and contributing both steals and blocks. It’s just a matter of time before he puts it all together. In his last game against the Trail Blazers, he scored 17 points on 7 of 13 shooting from the floor, good for a season-high 29.25 DKFP. One game does not make a trend, but tonight is as good as any to start.

Cory Joseph ($4,600) - I know, I just vomited in my mouth, too. Joseph is only averaging 0.73 DKFP per minute and has a 16% usage rate on the season. The field goal percentage is at 40%. Sorry, I just vomited again.

Here’s the thing, though. Joseph is averaging 23.8 minutes on the season, and he could realistically play 28 minutes in this contest because Tyrese Haliburton is out with a wrist injury. Joseph played 28 minutes on Saturday, and while he only produced 14 DKFP, he did not notch an assist in that game — which is an outlier scenario. On the season, both Fox and Joseph have shared the court for 70 minutes, so the minutes seem fairly secure.

What will he do with those minutes? Nobody knows.


Fades

Buddy Hield ($9,000) - Hield is fifth in both three-point attempts and makes. Unfortunately, he doesn’t do much outside of launching from beyond the arc. As a result, he’s averaging only 0.78 DKFP per minute and 25.43 DKFP per game. He could always get hot and scorch the court, especially in a pace-up environment, but he’s eclipsed 30 DKFP in a game just twice this season. His $9,000 price tag seems too high to pay.


THE OUTCOME

The home crowd should be rocking and rolling, giving a boost to Curry and ... oh, never mind. While the Warriors played last night, the Kings are well-rested. It’s a pace-up spot for them, as well, and the Warriors are terrible on defense, so I like the Kings taking care of the Warriors pretty easily.

Final Score: Sacramento 120, Golden State 110

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $300K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st] (SAC vs GSW)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.


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